Timeform Corner

This is novel. Full marks for trying something different. Haven't looked at it all yet but will do.

 

Hats off to that. At least they made an effort to try anything that will work than not trying at all.

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By Tony McFadden -- published 25th August 2014

In the first of a two-parter, Tony McFadden looks back on last week’s action from York and tries to unveil any classic clues.

It bodes extremely well for Cursory Glance’s future prospects that she was able to split a pair of smart juveniles blessed with searing speed, and she is likely to come into her own granted a stiffer test, a step up to seven furlongs next on the agenda according to connections.

The Group 2 Lowther Stakes looked a high-class race on paper, featuring a clash between Royal Ascot winners Anthem Alexander and Cursory Glance, along with wide-margin Super Sprint scorer Tiggy Wiggy, and viewers were not disappointed as the big three pulled clear of some promising juveniles. Anthem Alexander, with a pre-race rating of 108p, would have been the top-rated filly in 12 of the last 20 renewals of the Lowther, however she was only third best on the figures this time, rated 12 lb behind Tiggy Wiggy. Anthem Alexander lowered the previous two-year-old course record in the Lowther – unfortunately for connections so too did Cursory Glance and Tiggy Wiggy! Tiggy Wiggy had posted the best performance from a juvenile filly in the past 25 years when destroying her rivals in the Super Sprint, and she probably improved a fraction to register a first Group-race success in the Lowther, the step up to six furlongs proving no impediment as she beat Albany Stakes winner Cursory Glance by one and a half lengths, with Queen Mary winner Anthem Alexander – carrying a 3 lb penalty – a further half-length back in third. The trio were five lengths clear of the remainder and the fact they clocked the three fastest juvenile Timefigures all season is further evidence of this being a really strong piece of form.

In terms of ratings fall-out, Tiggy Wiggy has been rated 121 – pushing her 1 lb clear of Ivawood (120p) at the head of the two-year-old standings - while Cursory Glance is on 115p with the penalty-carrying Anthem Alexander on 116p. Tiggy Wiggy now looks set to tackle the Cheveley Park or the Prix de l’Abbaye – possibly both – and she would hold leading claims in either contest, the generous weight-for-age allowance that she would receive at Longchamp making that an appealing target. Anthem Alexander would also be a big player at Longchamp if permitted to take her chance, particularly as she shaped as if a drop back to the minimum distance would be in her favour, looking all about speed at this stage. In truth, neither Tiggy Wiggy nor Anthem Alexander appeal as Guineas types – sprinting is surely their game – but the same accusation should not be levelled at Cursory Glance. Cursory Glance is the daughter of a 10-furlong winner, and she was very strong in the closing stages when powering home to win the Albany Stakes over Ascot’s stiff six furlongs in June. It bodes extremely well for Cursory Glance’s future prospects that she was able to split a pair of smart juveniles blessed with searing speed, and she is likely to come into her own granted a stiffer test, a step up to seven furlongs next on the agenda according to connections. She deservedly heads the market for the 1000 Guineas and is the filly to take from the race.

Dealing with the colts, the Acomb Stakes caused a shake-up in the 2000 Guineas market. The progressive Dutch Connection is going from strength to strength, starting to fill his frame and maturing mentally, too, and he put up a useful, likeable effort to get up close home, beating Toocoolforschool by a head with strongly-supported favourite Basateen back in third. Dutch Connection is a nice, improving horse (now rated 106+) but it is worth remembering that he was hammered by John Gosden’s Faydhan at Haydock on that colt’s debut. Faydhan is evidently well regarded at home – he was backed into odds-on favouritism at Haydock – and he put up a thoroughly impressive display to make a winning debut, conceding experience to his rivals but nothing in the way of ability. Faydhan’s six-length demolition of Dutch Connection in a good time reads very well now, while Speedy Move, the third-placed horse, has also won twice since, so he has deservedly been clipped a few points in the Guineas market. Faydhan’s debut effort has been reassessed in light of how well the form has worked out since, and the once-raced colt now boasts a lofty rating of 107P.

It is not often a horse posts a Timeform rating of 100+ on debut, and Faydhan is an exciting prospect and one whose progress must be monitored. White Lake (102P) also replicated the rare feat as he went a way to repaying his 240,000gns purchase price by winning the Convivial Maiden Stakes, the most valuable race of its type. The rangy, attractive White Lake caught the eye in the parade ring, and he impressed with how he moved through the race at York, travelling powerfully and sticking on well close home to win by two lengths. Many top yards were represented in the Convivial Maiden Stakes, while the pace picked up from far enough out to give them a chance from all positions, and it is expected to prove strong form. The fact White Lake’s trainer, Luca Cumani, has few juvenile winners on debut speaks strongly in favour of the impressive winner, and he very much appeals as the type to progress with racing. He could be worth a small ante-post 2000 Guineas interest at big odds.

It wasn’t all about York last week as The Wow Signal maintained his unbeaten record by taking care of promising juveniles Hootenanny and Ervedya in the Group 1 Prix Morny. The Wow Signal didn’t appear to be going especially well in the early stages – he was pushed along from halfway, in fact – but he responded well to his rider’s urgings and got on top inside the final furlong, beating Hootenanny by half a length. His new rating of 118 places him behind only Tiggy Wiggy and Ivawood in this season’s juvenile standings. Hootenanny (116+) had created a fantastic impression at Royal Ascot, showing blistering speed to run out a comfortable winner of the five-furlong Windsor Castle Stakes, but there was always a concern that his stamina would be stretched by going six furlongs on testing ground, and that seemed to be the case at Deauville. A final 400-metre sectional of 24.76s (96.8% finishing speed compared to average race speed) suggests that the early pace was strong, and Hootenanny was possibly disadvantaged by racing so handily. He may well be capable of better still, especially back at five furlongs.

With so much high-quality action last week, you could have been forgiven for missing a one-mile fillies maiden at the Curragh on Saturday, but it threw up a pattern-class filly in Found, a daughter of Matron Stakes winner Red Evie. The Aidan O’Brien-trained Found was stable second-strong on the day – sent off at 14/1 – but she created a taking visual impression, quickening from last to first off a steady gallop, winning virtually on the bridle. The bare form is nothing to get carried away with, but Found (89P) could hardly have been more impressive and quotes for the Guineas and the Oaks look justified.

 

Love this thread.

I certainly didn't miss the debut of Found and the way she travelled into the race was very taking.

I also like Queen Nefertiti who romped away with a maiden earlier in the Summer and has stayed under the radar.The form of that race has a solid look about it.

The Lowther is always a moderate race but this year it looked strong for sprinting 2-y-o's.The winner won't be heard of next season once her peers catch up physically.

As for Cursory Glance,can't think of a worse bet for the 1000 Guineas.

I also mentioned Faydhan several weeks ago as my favoutite 2-y-o colt thus far.

Always exciting to see how these juveniles progress.

 

Cheers Dex. Re Cursory Glance for the 1,000 Guineas, haven't looked at the race but I'm sure you could find some worse bets. Whatever I pick, for a start.

 

Being hard Dexter? One wouldn't have expected Cursory Glance to have got that close to the speedy Tiggy Wiggy, but she did go pretty fast herself and her pedigree suggests she'll get a mile easily. She's nicely bred and the distaff side is well known to us, tracing back to Time Charter and the best Barnett family. My guess is she'll probably get a bit further in time.
I'll await her next race with interest.

 

Agree Ron and Bustino,I think I was being a little hard on the filly.

It was a decent effort over 6f given the record breaking time but I prefer other fillies for the 1000 and beyond.

 

By Simon Rowlands -- published 27th August 2014

In his latest blog Simon Rowlands brings you the top performers of the 2014 turf season according to the stopwatch...

Among the juvenile colts, Ivawood is clearly a smart performer, and may yet prove to be as effective at 7f/1m as he has been to date at 6f. But, a bit less obviously, his stablemate Estidhkaar has already put up a good effort on the clock at 7f on good to soft going and looks nearly as good a 2000 Guineas contender at this stage.

The recent Ebor Meeting at York was a great success in many respects: in terms of competitive racing; in terms of good weather and good crowds; and for followers of the Handicap Previews on these pages (to name but three). It was also a great success in terms of the quality of performances compared to the clock.

Analysis of overall times may no longer be cutting edge, as it was when Phil Bull established Timeform in the 1940s, but it still has indisputable merit. The principle is that ability may be masked when horses run against each other – due to the multiple confounding factors associated with a chaotic horse race – but superior ability measured against the clock is open to far less dispute.

After all the relevant factors are taken into account – such as the track and distance, the abilities, ages and weights carried of the horses, the apparent state of the going, the effects of wind and rain – a good time signifies a good horse, period.

A poor time does not necessarily signify a poor horse, however. Races are run not to achieve the fastest possible times, or the highest possible ratings, but for one horse to beat the others. Horseracing can be a highly tactical sport (that is a major reason why it is so good to bet upon), and the pace at which a race is run will affect the overall time the horses are able to achieve.

This gap between ability and achievement, as judged by time, has been addressed in recent years by sectional-timing analysis. But it should not be forgotten that both sectional times and overall times measure the same essential things: a horse’s ability as manifested in its time over a given distance. An overall time is, in effect, a sectional time which covers the entirety of a race.

At York, we saw several high-quality performances as judged by overall times that have been contextualised for the circumstances which gave rise to them. This requires not only truly-run races but horses of superior ability running at, or near, their best.

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It can be seen that seven of the top 30 timefigure performances across the age-groups in 2014 to date came at the York Ebor Meeting, with a remarkable top-three juvenile figures achieved in one race, the Lowther Stakes, won by Tiggy Wiggy.

That Lowther Stakes came in a course-record time for two-year-olds, but, more importantly, it overshadowed all others on the day after adjustments have been made for various factors. The time was more than 2 seconds quicker than that for a valuable juvenile Sales race which immediately preceded it. Second and third, Cursory Glance and Anthem Alexander, also beat the old record.

Postponed (beat Snow Sky in Great Voltigeur Stakes) and Sole Power (beat Stepper Point in Nunthorpe Stakes) were others to put up especially meritorious efforts against the clock during the four days of action.

A comparison with the age-group leaders in recent years shows that Tiggy Wiggy has already achieved a figure that would top her generation in some years, but that the other divisional leaders – Night of Thunder for the three-year-olds and Mukhadram/Baccarat/Telescope for the older horses – are some way behind the usual benchmarks.

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There are four months still to go this year, of course, but the majority of older-horse bests, and all of the three-year-old bests, had been achieved by this juncture in recent years.

We have seen no Frankels – top on time at two, three and four, the last two with the fastest relative times this century – this year and almost certainly won’t for a very long time. But those historical figures ultimately confirmed the status of other top-notchers, and this year’s may still have predictive value for horses that are underappreciated at this stage.

Tiggy Wiggy may have been dominant in the Lowther Stakes, but she is most unlikely to stay a mile next year, whereas Cursory Glance is very likely to and deserves to be regarded as an excellent 1000 Guineas prospect.

Among the juvenile colts, Ivawood is clearly a smart performer, and may yet prove to be as effective at 7f/1m as he has been to date at 6f. But, a bit less obviously, his stablemate Estidhkaar has already put up a good effort on the clock at 7f on good to soft going and looks nearly as good a 2000 Guineas contender at this stage.

Among the three-year-olds, there is a fair chance that we have not yet seen the best of Eagle Top, who put up his 119 timefigure on just his fourth lifetime start, behind Taghrooda in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He promises to stay beyond 12f but would need to be supplemented for the St Leger, a race that would seem made for him in many respects.

 

By Tony McFadden -- published 26th August 2014

In the second of his two-part review of last week’s action at York, Tony McFadden looks back on the classic generation and older horses.

The Yorkshire Oaks has been won by some exceptional fillies down the years – Midday and The Fugue are recent winners– and, in all likelihood, we saw a very smart winner this time around as Tapestry sprung a surprise to defeat 1/5 favourite Taghrooda by half a length. The previously-unbeaten Taghrooda wasn’t at her imperious best at York, but she didn’t underperform by as much as you may have expected, the result owing plenty to Tapestry’s improvement. Sound fractions set by Volume allowed the front two to assert their dominance over the rest of the field, pulling seven lengths of Tasaday in third, while sectional times confirm that Taghrooda wasn’t disadvantaged by the run of the race. Tapestry’s improvement isn’t hard to believe bearing in mind she is regally bred (by Galileo out of dual Group 1-winning juvenile Rumplestiltskin) and had shaped very well on her only previous start at the trip, finishing runner-up in the Irish Oaks despite getting worked up before the start and racing for much of the way with a slipped saddle. A positive view has been taken of the form and Tapestry has been rated 123, while Taghrooda’s master rating has been pulled down from 130 to 128 with the form of the King George perhaps not looking as strong as it did at the time.

The King George form was represented in Wednesday’s Juddmonte International by Telescope and Mukhadram – second and third respectively at Ascot– but neither threatened to challenge the impressive winner Australia. The way Australia had cruised through the Derby suggested that the drop to an extended 10 furlongs wouldn’t pose a problem, and so it proved, his two-length beating of The Grey Gatsby representing his best effort yet and a top-class performance that has been bettered only by Frankel in this race in recent years. Held up off the steady gallop cut out by stable companion Kingfisher, Australia travelled powerfully and made eye-catching ground, posting a sub-11 second furlong between 3f and 2f out. He kept on strongly once in front, his rider by no means engaging an all-out drive, and the comfortable style of the victory marks him down as value for extra than the two-length winning margin. Australia has been given a master rating of 132p – 1 lb behind leading three-year-old Kingman –while runner-up the Grey Gatsby also posted a career-best figure of 127. The Irish Champion Stakes (10f) is seemingly next on the agenda for Australia, while he holds a host of possible end-of-season targets ranging from a mouth-watering clash over a mile with Kingman in the QEII Stakes to a step back up in trip to tackle the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. The Champion Stakes, over 10 furlongs, is also an option, though certainly the least attractive from a viewers’ perspective wanting to watch Australia tested to the full.

Australia got the better of Kingston Hill (125) in the Derby, and it was disappointing that Roger Varian’s charge was a late withdrawal from Wednesday’s Great Voltigeur Stakes as he would have brought an unusually high level of form into the race. Kingston Hill wouldn’t have had everything his own way ay York, though, as Luca Cumani’s progressive three-year-old Postponed took another step forward when running out a ready winner, beating Gordon Stakes victor Snow Sky by two and a quarter lengths, with a further 8 back to Odeon in third. This was clearly Postponed’s best effort to date – worthy of a rating of 125 – and he looks the type that may develop into a genuine Group 1 middle-distance performer, his rate of progress showing no signs of abating. The St. Leger is usually on the agenda for winners of this race, though Postponed’s trainer, Luca Cumani, seems reluctant to go down that route. Runner-up Snow Sky, on the other hand, could well target the Doncaster classic and his rating of 121 doesn’t put him far behind the standard often required to win that contest. As an aside, Snow Sky’s performance at York was encouraging for fans of Windshear who was arguably unlucky not to win at Goodwood (short of room at a vital stage) and should appreciate the step up in trip.

Speaking of horses short of room, Sole Power did remarkably well to regain the Nunthorpe crown that he first claimed in 2010, quickening sharply inside the final half-furlong to surge ahead close home. It was a bunched finish and the race has been rated lower than you would expect a Group 1 sprint to be (winner ran to 121) but Sole Power had loads in hand, value for more than the half-length winning margin, and he is a sprinter at the top of his game at present, this his second Group 1 triumph of the campaign, his fourth in total. Sole Power’s master rating has been left unchanged on 128 and he will continue to take all the beating, the sprint on the newly-formed Irish Champions Weekend reportedly his next target.

Johnny Murtagh, for so long associated with Sole Power, hung up his riding boots last season, but he has already showcased his talent for training, and he sent out Mutual Regard to win the Ebor – the most valuable handicap in the European racing calendar. Mutual Regard had finished a good third behind subsequent Lonsdale Cup winner Pale Mimosa on his previous start, and he built on that promise by producing a career-best effort on the Knavesmire. In defying such a big weight, albeit under a good 5-lb claimer, Mutual Regard (120) stamped himself down as a Group-class stayer and the Long Distance Cup on Champions Day would appeal as a viable target, his stable companion Royal Diamond having run to a rating of 118 when winning it last year. The Melbourne Cup is reportedly the route favoured by connections, however, and while that would be tougher still, his proven ability to act in a big field would stand him in good stand, as would the fact he is thriving for his new yard.

 

By Joe Rendall -- published 26th August 2014

Joe Rendall finds three horses from last week's action on the Knavesmire to add to your 'My Timeform' tracker...

Spacious Sky – Fine Equity Handicap Stakes (Handicap) – Day One, 20/0814

Tony Martin’s lightly-raced five-year-old will have gone into a few notebooks after running a fine race in the staying handicap on the opening day, and deservedly so. He was well-supported in the market and despite only managing third, deserves huge credit for his effort in the closing stages. He was held-up in the first half of the race before making eyecatching progress, only to be halted in his run two furlongs out. To only finish two-and-a-half lengths off the eventual winner was a monumental effort when you consider he was the only horse to come from off the pace, he had to travel three-wide around the home turn and was switched back out in the closing stages having run into traffic. Tony Martin is as effective as any trainer when it comes to plundering valuable handicaps and Spacious Sky looks one to keep on side for all of the top staying contests left to run this season. He’s still lightly-raced in this sphere and could be capable of better, and although he looks leniently treated for his latest effort there’s a chance he’d scrape into the Cesarewitch off his current mark. He’d be of significant interest there too should he take his chance.

Gerry The Glover – DBS Premier Yearling Stakes – Day Two, 21/08/14

The valuable sales race which opens up day two of the Ebor Festival is always a fiercely competitive affair – the last three winners SPs of 12/1, 10/1 & 9/1 will attest to that – and this year’s renewal looked no different. The one to take out of the race in our opinion was Gerry The Glover, who arrived on the back of a facile win in a Beverley maiden and looked to be facing a much stiffer task. He went on to finish eighth, but considering the step up in class this represented he coped with the tougher assignment admirably, shaping with a good deal of promise on just his third start. He raced down the centre of the track and was just beginning his effort when he found himself short of room just over a furlong out. What was impressive was the manner in which he re-mounted his assault after he was hampered, finishing with plenty of running left. That’s not to say he would have won the race with a clear passage but you feel he would have got a good deal closer, and he’s one to keep on side, especially if he’s switched to nurseries, with the hope he delivers on the promise he hinted at here.

Xinbama – Sky Bet Transfer Fund Stakes Handicap, Day Three, 22/08/14

Xinbama more than continued the fine run he’s been on so far in 2014 in the 12-furlong handicap that opened Friday’s card. He was having his first start for new handler Charlie Hills with two wins and three seconds already under his belt this year, including a second to the highly promising Connecticut at Newmarket. However, the real tale of Xinbama’s performance lies in the sectionals. The race, which was won by Glenard, was falsely run in the most part and Xinbama deserves extra credit for finishing so close to the winner. He was dropped out in the early stages which didn’t aid his cause and having looked outpaced with three furlongs to go, he finished very strongly. His time of 24.39s for the last two furlongs of the contest was the fastest recorded and it was only the uncompromising position he was left in as the race began to take shape that prevented him from finishing closer. It’s possible that he’s still improving and a drop in class is still an option off an official rating of 84; needless to say if the contest pans out tactically next time it would be no surprise to see him notch up his third career start of 2014.

 

Gerry The Glover was in my notebook, won his maiden at Beverley from the widest stall and that takes some doing especially in the manner he won

 

By Simon Rowlands -- published 15th September 2014

In a special edition of his Sectional Debrief series, Simon Rowlands assesses the action that took place in Paris on Sunday.

There was more high-class action than you could shake a stick at over the weekend: at Doncaster, at Leopardstown, at the Curragh, and, not least, at Longchamp. The last-named hosted the major trials day for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which will be run on the course on Sunday 5 October.

With three races run over the Arc distance of 2400 metres, Arc Trials Day allows meaningful comparisons between contenders that run in different races. This year’s card took place on ground that was firmer than usual, and firmer even than the official description of “good”. French going descriptions frequently lag some way behind reality.

Sectionals have been taken from the times displayed on-screen and from visual margins which are converted according to the speed at which the horses were travelling at the time. Some of the official margins look a little suspect also.

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Comparisons can be made with last year’s Arc Trials Day, which was blogged about here, though ground conditions and times were very different on the two occasions.

As the fastest of the three races (by some way if weight carried and weight-for-age is taken into account), the Prix Niel won by Ectot starts from a much higher level than the other two trials. The Niel was a remarkably well-run affair, and Ectot was at anything but a disadvantage in still being several lengths behind the leader and in last place at the 600m juncture.

Thereafter, Ectot swept through impressively (it was not quite the “searing turn of foot” reported in some quarters) before idling, but he would have had a great deal more to do had Adelaide not got boxed in for much of the straight. Adelaide’s performance looks better if the final 200m alone is considered: he recorded approximately 11.70s to Ectot’s 12.11s.

The Prix Vermeille was the most slowly-run of the trials, and in that immediate context Treve’s fourth place was not quite the disaster some suggested. She was quickest from the turn – just ahead of Dolniya – but it will have been exceptionally difficult to make up much ground when the race sectionals were 11.29s and 11.00s respectively for 600m out to 400m out and 400m out to 200m out.

Sectional analysis implies that both Dolniya and Treve would have beaten the pair who beat them had there been a true pace earlier, but it is far from clear which of them was the better filly on the day. That is clearly some way removed from the dominance that Treve was exhibiting this time last year.

Ruler of The World got a canny ride from the front in a steadily-run Prix Foy, but his closing sectionals show that he was markedly superior to his rivals other than Flintshire anyway. Flintshire’s headway was steady rather than dramatic, but there might have been little in it between him and the winner had the pair entered the straight alongside each other rather than with Flintshire nearly three lengths in arrears.

Unlike 12 months before, when there seemed a strong possibility that we had seen the Arc winner on Arc Trials Day, and Treve was the best of the candidates, this year’s events arguably pointed to the absence of a future Arc winner on display, for all that Ectot did the job well and Adelaide underlined his class in defeat.

There are only three more weeks to wait to find out.

Tried My Timeform yet? You can add detailed notes, keep your eye-catchers organised and decide when you receive e-mail alerts when your horses run. And best of all, it's FREE! Find out more HERE.

 

Interesting that, despite being far from fit and not appreciating the ground, Treve ran the fianl 600m faster than any other of the runners in all 3 Arc trials. 1.8secs faster than Ectot. If she hasn't jarred herself up again (according to Timeform the ground was firmer than reported) and she gets enough prep on softer ground and it's softer than good on Arc day, she will prove everyone wrong. Hopefully she will only run if those conditions are met. So, what price with a run anyone?

 

Is anyone using the (Free) My Timeform. It looks pretty good and I must get round to it at some point.

 

I've added a new article on the new test site

 

I've added another new article on the new test site

 

Ratings Update: Did we see a Derby candidate at Doncaster?

By Keith Melrose -- published 27th October 2014

Keith Melrose goes dual-purpose this week to keep you abreast of the latest developments on the ratings front.


We feel a bit short-changed these days if the Racing Post Trophy doesn’t give us something really exciting to look forward to, like a lipstick print at the bottom of the Flat season’s love letter. Anything less than a new Derby favourite is substandard.

In those terms, as well as the more prosaic measure of ratings, this year’s RP Trophy was just shy of what we’d expect. Elm Park came in with the best form, was given a straightforward, well-judged ride by Andrea Atzeni and ran out a comfortable winner. That’s not to say we didn’t see a top juvenile on Saturday. Elm Park is now rated 117p, which puts him within hailing distance of the best two-year-olds seen in Britain this year.

Achievement at two is generally superannuated by about late-May of the following year and in Elm Park’s case the big day as a three-year-old is more likely to be at Epsom or Doncaster than Newmarket. He’s been rated 2 lb lower than Kingston Hill, second in the Derby and first in the Leger this year, was for winning the RP Trophy 12 months ago.

Perhaps more pertinently, Elm Park would now be top-rated in the Derby. He isn’t actually entered at this stage, though he’s rated 1 lb ahead of John F Kennedy, who sets the standard among those entered as yearlings. That said, he’s arguably had a better platform on which to advertise his credentials and we at Timeform agree with the market in believing that John F Kennedy is still the likeliest Derby winner come next June.

John F Kennedy might have made the most natural fit for a Ballydoyle colt in the RP Trophy. Aidan O’Brien ultimately sent Aloft and Jacobean (94p), the latter still seemingly too green but Aloft did advance his form significantly to finish second. He’s rated 109 now and already looks ready for trips beyond a mile. He’d be an obvious choice if O’Brien fancied sending one to the Criterium de Saint-Cloud, Europe’s last Group 1 of the year, in a couple of weeks.

***

The Horris Hill wasn’t the Horris Hill in name this year, but it was the Horris Hill in nature. The last time the race had any lasting impact was when Klammer’s success in 2010 helped tell us just how exciting Frankel was.

Smaih (102) made his seventh start a third winning one in the Horris Hill. That a horse fully exposed as just useful could win in relatively decisive fashion tells us plenty. There isn’t much to say about those he beat, either.

The St Simon Stakes probably provides a greater talking point from that Newbury card. Sky Hunter has gradually got back to the sort of form he showed at three and surpassed it with a nine-length win on Saturday. He’s now rated 120 and could be the type to do well in Dubai over the winter. His form now certainly demands a return to a higher level, Group 2s at least.

***

Jumps hasn’t quite caught up with the Flat yet (in Britain at least, that will come this weekend) and Saturday’s fare hasn’t helped it jump the queue. That’s in spite of the weekend’s big jumps prize, the Old Roan at Aintree, yielding a near top-class performance from winner Wishfull Thinking.

There was the opportunity to go much higher than 164 on Wishfull Thinking’s impressive 12-length success. That we haven’t is a reflection of his familiarity: Wishfull Thinking is 11 and a well-known talented rogue. We’ve rewarded him with the removal of his ‘squiggle’, which is also allied to a more consistent 2013/4 campaign, though it’s unlikely to be a concession of any great significance. Wishfull Thinking essentially had one of his better days when conditions were in his favour (held up off a strong pace) and he’ll probably find the remainder of 2014/5 tough going.

***

Chepstow arguably offered more in the way of clues. Valdez was arguably the biggest for all it was only a clue he offered: he tanked into the same handicap won by Sire de Grugy last year before coming down two out. We’ve rated him as a five-length winner for now, which corresponds to a rating of 159+. It’s a performance that’s grabbed our attention, though with the Champion Chase in mind he’s still a stone behind the standard set by Sire de Grugy, let along whatever Sprinter Sacre returns with this winter.

Elsewhere on the card Blaklion kept his unbeaten record intact in the Persian War. His rating of 146p is about on-standard for a winner of that race and, as usual, it puts him top in the early sparring among novice hurdlers. Runner-up Vicente won’t be a novice much longer and will graduate to the senior ranks rated 145.

There was good handicap form on show in the Silver Trophy. Each of the first four – Shelford (134+), Aubusson (141+), Vieux Lion Rouge (139 and better for run) and Regal Encore (131, not knocked about)- will be of interest in similar races. We also have to consider Emerging Talent, who went the like the better horse when taking on Shelford in a novice at the same track a couple of weeks back. Next time you hear of him we expect to be reporting a higher mark than his current 133.

 

Ratings Update: No doubting The Young Master's class
By Keith Melrose -- published 10th November 2014

Keith Melrose brings the ratings news from a big weekend at Wincanton and advises viewer discretion at Doncaster.

On Saturday we saw both literal and metaphorical evidence for the old saw that it never rains, it pours. As deteriorating conditions caused some deceptive results, principally at Doncaster (more on that later), another administrative error took the gloss off the feature steeplechase for the second week running.

Unlike last week, when Wetherby’s distance anomaly was too close to home for this column not to make mention, we have little reason to invest in the debate on whether or not The Young Master should be allowed to keep the Badger Ales Trophy. From a ratings perspective his performance is all that matters and, insofar as that goes, he is undoubtedly an exciting novice chaser.

For an easy seven-length success over Court By Surprise and Alfie Spinner, the placed horses from the 2013 renewal, The Young Master is now rated 145p. Even a hefty rise- a stone, say- wouldn’t prevent him from being of interest from a handicapping perspective next time.

The Young Master might take the handicap route to top novice events in the spring and if he does it’s expected that Southfield Theatre will be among his main rivals. Southfield Theatre also won on Wincanton’s Saturday card, taking the Rising Stars in fine style. It’s a race that often attracts some of the most promising novices and Southfield Theatre already fits into that category. His rating of 152p puts him top of the novice pile as things stand and most will expect him to do better still around three miles. Considering the five-year average for RSA winners stands at 153 you’d be forgiven for giving Southfield Theatre’s price of 16/1 for that race a second look.

There was also plenty of cud to chew in Wincanton’s hurdle races. The Elite Hurdle was painted as Irving’s first trial and where that’s concerned the verdict has to be one of ‘not proven’. That’s not just because of Irving’s crashing fall at the last but also because, had he stood up, he’d likely have run to a higher figure than he managed last season without quite matching what his reputation demands.

Irving is now rated 150+, a figure which suggests that he’d have finished between winner Purple Bay (160) and runner-up Bertimont (148) but for his premature exit. He’ll surely come on for the run if most of his stablemates this autumn have been any guide and, assuming he goes up no more than a handful of pounds, he’ll be of obvious interest if he’s kept to handicaps in the short term.

Finally at Wincanton, a word for Polly Peachum, who carried top weight to victory in the mares’ race. She’s now rated 151, a significant figure as it makes her the joint-highest rated mare in Britain alongside Cockney Sparrow. There is of course an Annie Power-shaped shadow cast over the mares’ division, though with that mare’s campaign not yet mapped out connections of the likes of Cockney Sparrow and Polly Peachum can dare to dream of Cheltenham Festival glory. It’s worth mentioning that only once did Quevega have to run to higher than 151 to win the David Nicholson: that was in 2009 and she won by 14 lengths.

***

There were three graded races at Navan on Sunday, though none of those made any huge waves; Twinlight (158+) putting up a career-best effort to win the Fortria Chase notwithstanding. The real story might well have been in the maiden chase towards the end of the card.

You might remember Gilgamboa from the Supreme, in which he threatened before clattering two out. He really took our reporter’s eye that day with his scope, so we were pleased to see him make such an impressive chasing debut, essentially toying with the useful Blood Cotil and others. A first rating over fences of 140P for Gilgamboa doesn’t represent Arkle-winning form just yet, but we wouldn’t be at all surprised were he to develop into a contender.

***

We return, as promised, to Doncaster and the closing card of the Flat turf season. Ground conditions that could only be described as desperate by the end gave final confirmation that the time of year for the all-weather to take over has come.

The main story, indeed the only one of real note, concerns the feature November Handicap. Those expecting an astronomical figure on 12-length winner Open Eagle had best prepare themselves for a let-down: he’s not a Group 1 horse all of a sudden. We wouldn’t have believed that under normal circumstances, let alone those under which Daniel Tudhope thought going widest of all throughout was a wise strategy.

Open Eagle tends to thrive when the mud is flying, which is a large part of why he won by so far. We’ve arrived at a figure of 108, which has to involve a fair degree of guesswork given the conditions and margins involved (nearly a third of the field were beaten over 100 lengths). Open Eagle is likely to be priced out of all but the best handicaps now and will struggle at a higher level unless he is found a weak race on testing ground.

 

What Is Going On At Wetherby? A follow-up
By Simon Rowlands -- published 10th November 2014

Six days after he questioned the distance of the Charlie Hall Simon returns to the issue, sceptical about the official response.

A recent blog questioning the race distance of this year’s Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby received a large and very positive response. In summary, it is possible – by using Google Earth and video analysis in conjunction – to establish that the runners in that race covered considerably less distance than the official version, thus helping to explain the remarkably fast time recorded.

Since then, the British Horseracing Authority has queried the methodology, stating that race distances should be measured down the middle of the track, on bends as well as on straights, despite the fact that almost no races are actually run in this way.

Even so, a previous Google Earth survey, conducted on Boxing Day 2013, when runners were taking a much wider route, has the 25-furlong chase course at 24.3 furlongs: still a long way short of the distance advertised.



Wetherby, as run on Boxing Day 2013. The course is still short of the advertised distance. You can see the full, unedited image here.

To err is human, and the BHA is nothing if not human. They could be forgiven such errors if their response to them was robust, appropriate and timely.

Their statement that Wetherby will be resurveyed this week, in advance of Saturday’s meeting at the course, could be seen as appropriate. But this has not been the first example of errors in such matters, and it appears as if the BHA responds to having errors pointed out to it rather than takes steps to prevent them in the first place.

It took an investigation by Timeform to get Lingfield to acknowledge earlier this year that some of its distances were wrong on the all-weather and to correct them after years of misrepresentation. Timeform also called into question in February the distance of the 2013 Betfair Chase, and of hurdle races at Wincanton, providing supporting evidence of its own.

Timeform has other firm evidence of distance anomalies, on the Flat and over jumps, that it has not gone public with to date.

You might think that the BHA – realising that if some British race distances are manifestly wrong then others may be too – would have remeasured all courses at some point in the last nine months. But the Wetherby example clearly implies otherwise. Whether or not this shows “complacency”, as I have suggested previously, the reader can decide.

Even more worryingly is that the BHA seems unaware of its responsibilities to be open with an increasingly sceptical public.

It conducted its remeasurement of Haydock earlier this year behind closed doors and provided no evidence to support its claims, stating that it was the BHA itself which provided the “independent verification” required. Furthermore, it has now denied a request by Timeform to have an independent presence at the imminent remeasuring at Wetherby.

The BHA may live in a vacuum, whereby it has been blissfully unaware of the existence of cover-ups and whitewashes by people in authority in British public life over recent decades. If not, it must be wondered why it does not welcome the opportunity to allay suspicions, and to shore up its credibility, by being totally open about its processes. What does the BHA have to gain by conducting this investigation behind closed doors?

Any official “findings” at Wetherby this week should be viewed in this context.

 

Rowleyfile investigates: What is going on at Wetherby?
By Simon Rowlands -- published 4th November 2014

With some anomalous times being returned at Wetherby in recent weeks, Simon investigates and comes up with a strong case for saying that punters are being short-changed.

Jump racing enthusiasts are entitled to wonder what on Earth has been going on at Wetherby recently. Track records at the course have been tumbling left, right and centre, including two on Saturday on ground officially described as “Good, Good to Soft in places”.

There are a number of possible explanations for this, including that the times are wrong (Timeform independently takes its own times which can be used to corroborate the official ones), that the going has been much faster in recent months than reported, and that the reincarnation of Arkle has turned up at the course, not once but several times already this season.

Or there is a simpler explanation, which happens to be the right one, and which reveals a worrying degree of official incompetence: at least some of the reported distances are wrong, badly wrong.

Unlike in the old days, when someone would have to measure a course with a trundle wheel in order to establish the truth of the matter, it is possible to measure the length of a race very accurately from a computer, using Google Earth.

This was the approach Timeform used previously to reveal, for instance, that the Wincanton two-mile hurdle course was short of the distance advertised, a fact brought to the attention of the British Horseracing Authority at the time.

In the case of Saturday’s record-breaking Charlie Hall Chase (a race run at far from a strong pace), it is easy through video analysis to track the route taken by the runners and to reproduce it on Google Earth, as in the following image:



Simon's analysis of the Wetherby course. You can see the full, unedited image here.

The runners took a much tighter path on both bends than would usually be the case in the middle of winter, when Timeform had previously surveyed the circuit length at 2651 yards (or 12.05 furlongs). The shortened version comes in at 2562 yards (11.65 furlongs), with the image showing the distance for one circuit plus the run-in, which is 189 yards in length.

Video analysis and Google Earth also reveals that the runners in the Charlie Hall Chase crossed the starting line approximately 53 yards before the finishing line then completed two circuits of the shortened course. This therefore gives us a total race distance for the Charlie Hall of:

2562 + 2562 + 53 = 5177 yards, or 23.53 furlongs

Now, correct me if I am wrong, but 23.5 furlongs is not 25 furlongs – the advertised distance of the Charlie Hall Chase – or anything like it. The BHA allows jumps races to be returned to the nearest half-furlong. So, in order to fulfil the requirements set out in the Racing Calendar, the race needed to be between 24.75 furlongs and 25.25 furlongs. It wasn’t. It wasn’t anywhere near. It was 268 yards short of even the shortest acceptable distance.

Timeform has unearthed several other examples of erroneous jumps distances, without (so far) even trying very hard. The Wetherby “25-furlong” chase example may well be just the tip of a Titanic-sized iceberg.

As has frequently been stated, British racing is competing in the entertainment and betting arena, not only with racing products in other countries (many of which have far more accurate data) but with other sports which simply would not countenance this degree of misinformation. The point may have been made repeatedly, but it seems not to have sunk in with those who run the sport.

In addition to a brickbat for Wetherby’s Clerk of The Course, there needs to be one for the BHA, which is presiding over a degree of complacency and incompetence that should be unacceptable in a modern sport.

There have been previous warnings, including one which resulted in a hasty change to official distances on Lingfield’s Flat course as the result of a previous Timeform investigation, but no systematic overhaul of race measurement. The time for the BHA to act is already long overdue.