The Premier League Thread

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Qwerty said:
If they're still there in about March the fans will really get behind it. I think an undrawn season is far less likely than an unbeaten one? No one could ever take the Undrawables away.
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It has to be less likely. Last year's top four lost 14% of the time, but drew 20% of their matches, and there's more randomness in that than the loss column.

Assuming that four out of every five matches would result in not-draws for a team like Spurs, and assuming that not-drawing is kinda random, the odds of getting wins/losses in every match would be in the region of .8^38, so about 4814:1 against. So if those are the odds for a top four team, on average you'd expect an Undrawables season every 1200 years or so. If going by the numbers for the league as a whole, using last year's 26% draw rate, you'd expect an Undrawables season every 2450 years.

So we're potentially witnessing a once-in-a-millennia event. I mean, the math's all squirrely because it isn't really a random walk but whatever let's go with it.
 
Schad said:
It has to be less likely. Last year's top four lost 14% of the time, but drew 20% of their matches, and there's more randomness in that than the loss column.

Assuming that four out of every five matches would result in not-draws for a team like Spurs, and assuming that not-drawing is kinda random, the odds of getting wins/losses in every match would be in the region of .8^38, so about 4814:1 against. So if those are the odds for a top four team, on average you'd expect an Undrawables season every 1200 years or so. If going by the numbers for the league as a whole, using last year's 26% draw rate, you'd expect an Undrawables season every 2450 years.

So we're potentially witnessing a once-in-a-millennia event. I mean, the math's all squirrely because it isn't really a random walk but whatever let's go with it.
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I suppose for one team it's less likely but all 20 have a similar-ish chance, and only the best teams can go unbeaten, so the chance for it to happen in a season is maybe higher. I went down the rabbit hole anyway, all I can find that goes close is this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–09_Sporting_de_Gijón_season
 
Qwerty said:
I suppose for one team it's less likely but all 20 have a similar-ish chance, and only the best teams can go unbeaten, so the chance for it to happen in a season is maybe higher. I went down the rabbit hole anyway, all I can find that goes close is this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008–09_Sporting_de_Gijón_season
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1 in 2450 was what I came up with for a full 20-team league, but I think I must've done something incorrectly. A draw rate of 26%: .74^38 = 1 in 93152 chance, divided by 20 teams should equal 1 in 4658. Basically, if you and 19 other people each flipped a coin twice, and then repeated that process 37 more times, it's roughly the odds that none of you would ever get two heads in any of those 38 pairings.

In any event, it's not likely.
 
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