It is wide open and difficult to call but exit seems to have all the momentum at the moment. I'd never underestimate the effect of that Sun front page editorial I posted upthread. The odds for exit tumbled overnight. 4 days ago it was 11/4 and now it's 6/5. Whichever way it goes the result will obviously be a lot closer than I and I guess most of us ever would have thought and we're going to have a very divided country in it's wake.
Dipping in and out of this and other online threads it's pretty obvious that the hardcores either way - and I'm one -aren't going to shift and it's now a battle for the don't knows/undecideds.
Out for me for so many reasons. Immigration's the main one although my others may just be confirmation bias.
Immigration. On a national level the figures are insane as Goldhawk has pointed out again and again through this thread. The figures are totally unsustainable and I've yet to see a study that's convinced me of the benefits, economic and/or social of open borders. On a local level I've seen it's effects on the labour and housing market. As a background here's UKIP's share of the vote in my constituency over the last 4 elections,
2001 - 3.6%
2005 - 4.7%
2010 - 5.9%
2015 - 18%
You can of course make of those figures what you will. If you're of the Gordon Brown Labour ilk it's all about racism and agendas from the Sun and The BBC apparently. You may arrogantly and erroneously think that it's people not "understanding" the issues or knowing what's good for them while you do. I won't deny there are some Exiters who would fall into one or more of these categories but the vast. vast majority aren't closet racists, ignorant or ill-informed, rather they know only too well the effects unlimited economic migration and hence an unlimited labour market has had, and continues to have, on
their own lives. They have seen the depressive effects on wages and working conditions. They've seen accommodation costs spiraling while social services creak and buckle under the strain. I didn't see Gideon last night but if it's true that he's threatening the working classes with recession then he can save his breath. In places like this and so many others we've been in an ongoing recession for nigh on a decade. Maybe we need to wait a little longer for it to trickle down.
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My experience is the opposite of Tootings. I don't work in the City (I'm one of Geoff Hoon's metal bashers) and nobody where I work is voting Remain. A very divided country and, if the opinion polls are to be believed, a very divided continent. Ironic really given the EU's mission of bringing people together in peace and harmony while virgins sat atop unicorns gambol around showering us all with rainbow dust.
That's a bit longer than I thought it would be.
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