Off Topic The Politics Thread

[Telford Ranger]

And following on from what I wrote earlier I go to the BBC website this afternoon and see this headline.

Labour's Tom Watson: EU free movement rules must change

I think yes they're finally starting to get it. Then I read the article and realise they're not.

What Tom Watson actually says is,

"...EU immigration rules may have to be revisited, saying "woe betide" the party if it ignores public concerns.

A future government, he said, would have to make the case to revise EU-wide freedom of movement rules for workers."

Surely EU immigration rules are being addressed as part of this referendum and if Remain's response is we "may" have to revisit them at sometime in the future then it's just not good enough. It wasn't good enough before the referendum when Cameron "made the case", performed his PR dance in Brussels and came back with nothing and it's not good enough now.

Further down Frank Field gets it right...

"The idea that Labour voters are owned by the party... and the troops will do as they are told. That may have happened in 1945 but it has long ceased to happen and it isn't going to happen this time."

While in the Shadow Cabinet...

"Others said that voters simply needed reminding that the vast majority of Labour MPs back Remain."

TLDR Labour still aren't listening to what they're being told by a large number of their core support. Instead of actually listening to what people are telling them about their day-to-day lives they're alternately obfuscating and patronising and people generally aren't as stupid as to not be able to see through it. That last quote has really riled me up TBF.

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36523759

 

[Telford Ranger]

Fair comments Telford, my reasons for Remain are because it would directly affect my job and future prospects - so if someoe has the same reasons for choosing leave I respect that.

Successive Tory and labour governments are the reason there aren't enough council houses, the NHS is underfunded, non-EU mmigration is sky high and not enough schools are being built. But because of this many people don't see the benefit of being in the EU and so think leaving can't be any worse, I think we all see this.

Yeah there's a lot for me to agree with there.

The point I'd make about social housing, the NHS and education is that in all of these areas there has to be some degree of forward planning. pre-budgeting and the like. The situation we have at the moment with regards to migration makes this impossible. We genuinely have no idea from one day, week, month, year to the next how many people are coming to this country where they're going to settle, who they're bringing with them, what needs they may have and what skills they may bring along. With the EU10 It started with an estimated 30,000 and it's now over a miilion and a half. It's a chaotic free for all and it needs some level of control, control Cameron apparently asked the EU for and was told no.

He said last week that it "wasn't ideal" and he's right. What would be ideal would be a Prime Minister not shrugging his shoulders and advising us to vote for more of the same but one with the sovereign power to actually effect real change on immigration to this country both from inside and outside of the EU.

 

[sb_73]

Looks nailed on for Brexit now, so let's start guessing what happens next....my guess

- on 24th June or soon after Cameron does what he has said he would do and asks the EU to set Article 50 in motion. There will be outrage but I think it's fair, the people will have voted to leave, not leave at some unspecified point in the future. And there is no other way to leave but this
- Cameron announces intention to step down in October, turning the Tory party conference into a hustings
- whoever the new leader is will have to call an election. What happens if the majority of MPs are not Brexiters is beyond me, as they will have to vote at some stage on exit terms. The SNP may well campaign on another independence referendum, even if they don't really want one.
- the 27 will mither around deciding what terms to offer us - it could be a quick and simple bugger off, we'll spend the next 2 years disentangling ourselves and start any trade discussions with a clean slate, or they could offer us ways to stay engaged on trade. I would assume any offer including free movement of people, EU regulations being paramount etc could not even be put to a Parliament likely to want to remain part of the Single Market, so I feel a clean break will be needed.
- in the two years this process takes the borders will still be open an there may be a surge of EU migrants in the hope/expectation that they won't be chucked out. The new government's policy on this will be interesting
- over this period we will also learn how 'short term' the economic fall out from the referendum will be.
- a very similar process may have to take place with Scotland, though I am less convinced that they will actually leave, or even hold a referendum at this time

I reckon we will end up with no trade agreement for many years, if at all (just a feature of the snail's pace these things seem to move at, nothing sinister), visa free tourist and business travel in EU but work visas required both ways, retain complementary access to health care but not social security. The Government will have to guarantee British retirees in the EU that their pensions will rise in line with UK rises, but we might see a big return of these anyway if the £ falls a lot.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is unemployed as British MEPs lose their jobs, but he picks up seasonal work picking fruit in the Evesham Valley in the summer, working in a luxury gift package makers before Christmas and does a bit of moonlighting as a high tensile fencer.

'May you live in interesting times' as the Chinese curse goes.

 

[qprbeth]

Agree with Stan entirely...because I have seen the Brexit...party political broadcast at 7pm tonight on the BBC....showing the sh@t hole NHS if we stay in.....and the brilliant NHS if we leave.
...will anyone believe that [email protected] they will!!!!

 

[rangercol]

Looks nailed on for Brexit now, so let's start guessing what happens next....my guess

- on 24th June or soon after Cameron does what he has said he would do and asks the EU to set Article 50 in motion. There will be outrage but I think it's fair, the people will have voted to leave, not leave at some unspecified point in the future. And there is no other way to leave but this
- Cameron announces intention to step down in October, turning the Tory party conference into a hustings
- whoever the new leader is will have to call an election. What happens if the majority of MPs are not Brexiters is beyond me, as they will have to vote at some stage on exit terms. The SNP may well campaign on another independence referendum, even if they don't really want one.
- the 27 will mither around deciding what terms to offer us - it could be a quick and simple bugger off, we'll spend the next 2 years disentangling ourselves and start any trade discussions with a clean slate, or they could offer us ways to stay engaged on trade. I would assume any offer including free movement of people, EU regulations being paramount etc could not even be put to a Parliament likely to want to remain part of the Single Market, so I feel a clean break will be needed.
- in the two years this process takes the borders will still be open an there may be a surge of EU migrants in the hope/expectation that they won't be chucked out. The new government's policy on this will be interesting
- over this period we will also learn how 'short term' the economic fall out from the referendum will be.
- a very similar process may have to take place with Scotland, though I am less convinced that they will actually leave, or even hold a referendum at this time

I reckon we will end up with no trade agreement for many years, if at all (just a feature of the snail's pace these things seem to move at, nothing sinister), visa free tourist and business travel in EU but work visas required both ways, retain complementary access to health care but not social security. The Government will have to guarantee British retirees in the EU that their pensions will rise in line with UK rises, but we might see a big return of these anyway if the £ falls a lot.

Meanwhile, Nigel Farage is unemployed as British MEPs lose their jobs, but he picks up seasonal work picking fruit in the Evesham Valley in the summer, working in a luxury gift package makers before Christmas and does a bit of moonlighting as a high tensile fencer.

'May you live in interesting times' as the Chinese curse goes.

Mmm......could you let me have next week's winning lottery numbers?
You may be right you may be wrong, but you don't know what will happen for sure.
As for trade deals, would BMW want no trade deal with their second largest customer?
If it's going to take two years we can simply take control of our borders straight away and keep out anyone we want. What will the EU do, throw us out?

Interesting times indeed.

 

[qprbeth]

We do not have enough man power to close our borders immediately and attempt to check all people who come to our country....we will be in complete disarray if we try it Col.
Also what do we do about the thousands who are currently legally here...but won't be when leave

And what about our expats overseas, who will have no right to be in Spain for example...if we close our borders to Spainards
Like many Brexite answers not entirely thought through.

 

[sb_73]

Mmm......could you let me have next week's winning lottery numbers?
You may be right you may be wrong, but you don't know what will happen for sure.
As for trade deals, would BMW want no trade deal with their second largest customer?
If it's going to take two years we can simply take control of our borders straight away and keep out anyone we want. What will the EU do, throw us out?

Interesting times indeed.

As I said, it's a guessing game, and better than trading insults for a change. What's your guess? We could have unilaterally closed the borders anytime we wanted to and taken the consequences with the EU. What happens after 24 June is down to the government, which is pro remain. Where it's interesting is if the next government, even though it would be committed to honouring the referendum mandate, is still pro single market, for economic reasons. Who knows? Could even be a hung parliament.

For the trade deals, it's not a matter of the EU wanting to be difficult, it's simply that they take a very long time to work out, because 27 countries need to agree, not just BMW (democratic isn't it!). We couldn't do Norway or Switzerland models because of free movement of people, which leaves something like Canada, which took a decade to work out, and excludes services .Or just the WTO system. I suppose we could unilaterally say we won't impose any tariffs on EU goods and services and hope they would respond in kind.

I don't even know how many numbers you need to guess for the lottery, haven't done it for years. When I hear of a ludicrous jackpot I always mean to get a ticket, then forget.

I'm not trying to start an argument Col, just doing some amateur crystal ball gazing. For what it's worth if I did the same for a Remain result, I'm guessing that the country becomes very difficult to govern.

 

[rangercol]

As I said, it's a guessing game, and better than trading insults for a change. What's your guess? We could have unilaterally closed the borders anytime we wanted to and taken the consequences with the EU. What happens after 24 June is down to the government, which is pro remain. Where it's interesting is if the next government, even though it would be committed to honouring the referendum mandate, is still pro single market, for economic reasons. Who knows? Could even be a hung parliament.

For the trade deals, it's not a matter of the EU wanting to be difficult, it's simply that they take a very long time to work out, because 27 countries need to agree, not just BMW (democratic isn't it!). We couldn't do Norway or Switzerland models because of free movement of people, which leaves something like Canada, which took a decade to work out, and excludes services .Or just the WTO system. I suppose we could unilaterally say we won't impose any tariffs on EU goods and services and hope they would respond in kind.

I don't even know how many numbers you need to guess for the lottery, haven't done it for years. When I hear of a ludicrous jackpot I always mean to get a ticket, then forget.

I'm not trying to start an argument Col, just doing some amateur crystal ball gazing. For what it's worth if I did the same for a Remain result, I'm guessing that the country becomes very difficult to govern.

To be honest I think we will face some turbulent times whether we stay or go, but probably more turbulent if we leave.
This has led me to really take stock of all the arguments and make sure I still want to vote to leave.
I could have succumbed to the scare stories or the genuine chances of things being tough for a while, but my overriding commitment to being independent wins out.
The decision is closer in my own mind than you may think.

 

[sb_73]

To be honest I think we will face some turbulent times whether we stay or go, but probably more turbulent if we leave.
This has led me to really take stock of all the arguments and make sure I still want to vote to leave.
I could have succumbed to the scare stories or the genuine chances of things being tough for a while, but my overriding commitment to being independent wins out.
The decision is closer in my own mind than you may think.

It was in mine at the beginning but the tone of the debate (in general, not here) has pushed me in one direction. Though I will say that the Remain campaign has been pathetic. What has happened to sterling and the stock markets today has just emphasizes to me how vulnerable everyone is to the genuinely unaccountable and unthinking forces out there. It's not right to be bullied by those forces in what should be carefully weighed up and balanced decisions about people, but the fact is that they exist and are completely out of anyone's control. No matter how much I hate this (and I hate it much more than, say, I hate the idea of Brexit) my instinct is to try and avoid giving any excuse for a mindless beating from hands which have no conscience. Cowardly of me probably, but I don't like suffering, or even the risk of it.

Off to Prague hideously early tomorrow to work with people from across the EU for a couple of days. Will be interesting to see the non government attitude of some of our current partners to all this.

 

[TootingExcess]

There has to be a General Election after the vote if Brexit wins, but with Corbyn and McDonnell believing in open borders (even if it ain't current policy) they won't get in.

So Gove, Johnson or IDS it is - that first budget will certainly be interesting won't it!

 

[TheBigDipper]

If the "Leave" side gets the vote...

- Cameron will step down.
- The Conservatives won't hold an election even though (morally, not constitutionally) they should. Instead, they'll find a consensus leader (May would be my guess) to keep their "two parliamentary parties within one" going until 2020.
- Labour is also "two parties within one".
- If it all turns out fine, we'll all be happy.
- If it doesn't, the UK government won't accept responsibility.
- Whilst we go through the exit process, none of the things the "Leave" side wants to change will be changeable.

 

[sb_73]

Bizarre stuff today, Osborne threatening to do us all in the wallet/ purse should we do a Brexit, and the official Leave campaign publishing its proposed legislative agenda as if they will be the government on 24 June. To be fair they have been asked to do this, but probably not to the detail of who would be on their 'negotiating ' team with the EU. Given that it seems we will pretty instantly close the borders to EU migrants, start giving the NHS an extra £100m a week and wipe out VAT on fuel not sure what there is left to negotiate about. Farage, not part to the 'official' campaign cheerfully admits that he has no idea what would happen in the event of a Brexit vote.

Really stupid move by Osborne, who will never do these things and just looks like the spoilt kid in the playground, taking his ball away. Even if we do open up another £30bn hole in the public finances, he'll try and get it back from the poor rather than rich taxpayers, obviously.

 

[rangercol]

Bizarre stuff today, Osborne threatening to do us all in the wallet/ purse should we do a Brexit, and the official Leave campaign publishing its proposed legislative agenda as if they will be the government on 24 June. To be fair they have been asked to do this, but probably not to the detail of who would be on their 'negotiating ' team with the EU. Given that it seems we will pretty instantly close the borders to EU migrants, start giving the NHS an extra £100m a week and wipe out VAT on fuel not sure what there is left to negotiate about. Farage, not part to the 'official' campaign cheerfully admits that he has no idea what would happen in the event of a Brexit vote.

Really stupid move by Osborne, who will never do these things and just looks like the spoilt kid in the playground, taking his ball away. Even if we do open up another £30bn hole in the public finances, he'll try and get it back from the poor rather than rich taxpayers, obviously.

They are now resorting to open threats about taxation.

I will never vote for a party containing Osborne or Cameron again.

 

[cor blymie]

The welder from Middlesboro on last night debate summed up the problem Labour have convincing it's voters to vote remain. They are being systematically replaced by cheap labour from Eastern Europe. No scare stories from Cameron, Osborne and indeed now from the Labour Party will change his mind. He like his fellow 'smoggies' are out of work

 

[GoldhawkRoad]

Really stupid move by Osborne, who will never do these things and just looks like the spoilt kid in the playground, taking his ball away. Even if we do open up another £30bn hole in the public finances, he'll try and get it back from the poor rather than rich taxpayers, obviously.

He's threatening a Punishment Budget for poorer Labour voters in the north unless they vote to remain. It'll be interesting to see how low Dave and George sink in the final week in order to win.

Meanwhile, Juncker is threatening to come over and give us a good talking to (perhaps tell us we'll be at the end of the queue). Dave is vacillating on this visit

 

[Sooperhoop]

If it is Brexit both Cameron and Osborne will be history, the Tories can be brutally vindictive and they've both made too many enemies to survive as well as being in an untenable position...

 

[TootingExcess]

The welder from Middlesboro on last night debate summed up the problem Labour have convincing it's voters to vote remain. They are being systematically replaced by cheap labour from Eastern Europe. No scare stories from Cameron, Osborne and indeed now from the Labour Party will change his mind. He like his fellow 'smoggies' are out of work

Who are they voting for in the next election though? Not the Tories that cost them their manufacturing jobs, or Corbyn and his open borders. Maybe we haven't seen the last of UKIP?

 

[cor blymie]

Who are they voting for in the next election though? Not the Tories that cost them their manufacturing jobs, or Corbyn and his open borders. Maybe we haven't seen the last of UKIP?

definitely Labour, but on this issue there's strong support for Leave

 

[TootingExcess]

It's

definitely Labour, but on this issue there's strong support for Leave

its the same issue though, Corbyn wants open borders for all not just white Europeans. If they vote leave on that issue, they won't be backing Labour - maybe Farage has only just started!

 

[IwasanotherwatfordR]

Here's a view;

My biggest concern is that this has shown us what some UK politicians of ALL colours seem to be...a bunch of lying, self serving twats. They're all career politicians with no life experience and who, by and large, are not fit for purpose. Both campaigns have been shambolic and fuelled by fibs. If we vote Leave it'll be because we're fed up with our own politicians and it'll be a two fingered public response to them. And if the Remainians win, it'll be because they're scared of change.

Cameron/Osborne are scaremongering (and lying?) about the economy. Boris and Gove are myopic and xenophobic. Farage actually talks some sense - and is a much more sensible fellow than people give him credit for. And he has lot of business experience too.

I have read widely on both sides of the debate and have mapped out the pros and cons of trade, security, sovereignty, immigration, democracy, economy, legal issues, regulation, UK influence et al. It is a very difficult matter to call because we simply don't know what's "on the other side".

The EU is a stagnant trade bloc which hasn't grown since 2006. The proportion of poorer EU countries will increase as we widen the member base to basket case economies. Turkey - a potential future member - scares the bejeezuz out of me as a pro Islamist country, 97% based in Asia, bordering on the world's terrorist hotspots. The EU will extend to ISIS's border. Madness. That is a huge potential risk and few people are even talking about it.

The French and Germans are 5hitting themselves about a possible Brexit, seeing us as one of the main contributors and sensible voices within the EU (despite the fact that tinpot new members always vote against our interests). They are also worried that a Leave vote will trigger similar referenda in other EU countries.

I think that we can forge far better trade links on a bilateral basis, where WTO rules are much, much better than they were in 1973 - when we joined as the sick man of Europe (3 day weeks etc). I can see no reason not to seize back control of our own affairs - even if there's a short term blip to the economy. House prices will fall - which is great news, as it's all relative. And we import more than we export - so we're always going to be in demand to buy goods from the EU.. so they will be shafting themselves if they decide to ostracize us. We'll be stronger in years to come. I'm not even fussed about immigration, as it's necessary to supplement an ageing UK population with a falling birth rate, so long as we take in workers and not shirkers. Time to take back control from an unelected EU Commission.

My biggest fear is what will comprise our next Government. Cameron is f*cked. Osborne is hated. They're done for. Boris is a complete joke. Gove is loathed. Corbyn is a disgrace - an avowed lifelong Eurosceptic who's on the Remain side purely for party purposes. He should go asap. We have a bad situation looming ....which is exactly why the Remain camp might just sneak it...a combination of the fear of change and a wish to avoid UK political turmoil and a resultant UK financial crisis. And even if we vote Leave, some Remain MPs are implying that they may frustrate the will of the people by delaying Brexit legislation, effectively ignoring the referendum result. How undemocratic and perverted is that?