Off Topic The Politics Thread

[kiwiqpr]

Hypothetical: if a single nuke is lobbed into the U.K., would you automatically respond, or expect the government to respond, in kind?

No side to this question, genuine hypothetical.

yes

 

[bobmid]

If a single nuke is fired anywhere by anyone then its pretty much game over. Been nice knowing you all

 

[Uber_Hoop]

Any good quiz nights on over the weekend?

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

I was serious Goldie, and I wish I could be as blasé about all this as you seem to be. I'm normally the most rational of people, but, as unlikely as a nuclear attack might be, this **** actually scares me and I find myself thinking about it more than is healthy. I'm not scared for myself - I've had my life - but for my children and grandchildren. I hate the thought of not being able to do anything to help them.

I'd say the chance of Russia firing off a nuke at London because we were supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons is next to zero, which is why I was flippant about it. Russia is a poor country where much of the population are rural peasants. It's ploughed huge sums into nuclear weaponry to act as a deterrent in the spread of NATO eastwards but, for me, it would take an attack on Mother Russia for them to consider using one. At the moment, Putin is trying to get his money's worth by using the deterrent to spread uncertainty. If the West pulled back, frightened of the threat, there would be nothing to stop Putin marching eastwards into all the previously Soviet countries.

Putin is an autocrat but he's not unassailable in Russia. Russian hierarchy can be ruthless if a leader is failing. Stalin was reputedly poisoned. Khruschev was deposed. Any nuclear attack on a NATO members, is an attack on all NATO members. There would be one or more nuclear reply attacks on Russia in response to a Russian nuclear attack on a member state. If the coterie around Putin saw him risk their lives and the lives of their families in a suicide act to save his face after an ill advised and unsuccessful Ukrainian expedition, he'd be gone before he could order it, I'm convinced of it.

If we were dealing with North Korea, that would be a different matter, because Kim really does appear to have absolute power.

 

[Stroller]

I'd say the chance of Russia firing off a nuke at London because we were supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons is next to zero, which is why I was flippant about it. Russia is a poor country where much of the population are rural peasants. It's ploughed huge sums into nuclear weaponry to act as a deterrent in the spread of NATO eastwards but, for me, it would take an attack on Mother Russia for them to consider using one. At the moment, Putin is trying to get his money's worth by using the deterrent to spread uncertainty. If the West pulled back, frightened of the threat, there would be nothing to stop Putin marching eastwards into all the previously Soviet countries.

Putin is an autocrat but he's not unassailable in Russia. Russian hierarchy can be ruthless if a leader is failing. Stalin was reputedly poisoned. Khruschev was deposed. Any nuclear attack on a NATO members, is an attack on all NATO members. There would be one or more nuclear reply attacks on Russia in response to a Russian nuclear attack on a member state. If the coterie around Putin saw him risk their lives and the lives of their families in a suicide act to save his face after an ill advised and unsuccessful Ukrainian expedition, he'd be gone before he could order it, I'm convinced of it.

If we were dealing with North Korea, that would be a different matter, because Kim really does appear to have absolute power.

All very sensible and rational Goldie, but I still can't rid myself of the doom-laden feeling that a Russian nuclear attack on Britain is a live possibility, albeit a remote one.

 

[rangercol]

I'd say the chance of Russia firing off a nuke at London because we were supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons is next to zero, which is why I was flippant about it. Russia is a poor country where much of the population are rural peasants. It's ploughed huge sums into nuclear weaponry to act as a deterrent in the spread of NATO eastwards but, for me, it would take an attack on Mother Russia for them to consider using one. At the moment, Putin is trying to get his money's worth by using the deterrent to spread uncertainty. If the West pulled back, frightened of the threat, there would be nothing to stop Putin marching eastwards into all the previously Soviet countries.

Putin is an autocrat but he's not unassailable in Russia. Russian hierarchy can be ruthless if a leader is failing. Stalin was reputedly poisoned. Khruschev was deposed. Any nuclear attack on a NATO members, is an attack on all NATO members. There would be one or more nuclear reply attacks on Russia in response to a Russian nuclear attack on a member state. If the coterie around Putin saw him risk their lives and the lives of their families in a suicide act to save his face after an ill advised and unsuccessful Ukrainian expedition, he'd be gone before he could order it, I'm convinced of it.

If we were dealing with North Korea, that would be a different matter, because Kim really does appear to have absolute power.

My worry is that, everything you've said there is sound thinking, but Putin may have actually gone mad.

 

[rangercol]

All very sensible and rational Goldie, but I still can't rid myself of the doom-laden feeling that a Russian nuclear attack on Britain is a live possibility, albeit a remote one.

It would mean the end of Russia though Strolls.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

My worry is that, everything you've said there is sound thinking, but Putin may have actually gone mad.

He may have, but I'm betting there's a failsafe mechanism whereby those around him would stop him doing something that would take them and their families down with him. There must be many at the top discreetly questioning what he's doing (and failing at) already because Russia's relationship with important customers in the West will take many years to heal.

 

[rangercol]

He may have, but I'm betting there's a failsafe mechanism whereby those around him would stop him doing something that would take them and their families down with him. There must be many at the top discreetly questioning what he's doing (and failing at) already because Russia's relationship with important customers in the West will take many years to heal.

Yes, one would hope so.
There's definitely safeguards in place in the West to stop a madman pressing the button unilaterally.
I don't know if Russia has the same.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Yes, one would hope so.
There's definitely safeguards in place in the West to stop a madman pressing the button unilaterally.
I don't know if Russia has the same.

I believe there are formal safeguards in Russia, but my bet is on an informal one i.e. a Kremlin coup in the (in my view) unlikely event Putin demands a Nato member state is struck with a nuclear missile

 

[kiwiqpr]

Any good quiz nights on over the weekend?

There's a quiz thread on here somewhere

 

[Uber_Hoop]

There's a quiz thread on here somewhere

Any beer and cake provided?

 

[Uber_Hoop]

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[Uber_Hoop]

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Put her down as a “Don’t Know” then…?

 

[Uber_Hoop]

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[Uber_Hoop]

Ginger growler.

 

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[bobmid]

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[bobmid]

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[Uber_Hoop]

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I couldn't give a flying finger of Fudge (is just enough to give your kids a treat) about the oh-so-sacrosanct NHS. Couldn't care less if publicly owned, privately owned or shared out amongst the Vanquished Nibble-Pibblies just so long as its fit for purpose. Which its not. Ooh, ooh, it's under funded, right? Bollocks.