China already has Hong Kong (and Macau). The dissidents have left or shut up. In the ‘elections’ last December only (Chinese) ‘patriots’ were allowed to stand, and they were vetted and approved. There is no free press, even the ultra rich with a voice, like Jimmy Lai, are banged up. The judicial system is completely debased, and the police along with it. It’s is only nominally separate from China because the Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not freely exchangeable and the HK $ is, so it provides a clearing house (and a way for the Chinese leadership to launder their money). It’s a ****ing tragedy.
The British offer to HK citizens of a route to U.K. citizenship is at least a practical offer of escape from dictatorship. 3 million Hong Kong people and their dependents (a total of 5 million) are eligible and they have been applying to come at the rate of 2,500 a week since January last year. This is the UKs fastest growing community (much bigger than asylum seekers and illegal immigrants). Apparently a lot have moved to Sutton.
They might not invade Taiwan proper but they could occupy some of the many islands close to Taiwan, and also get a few more in the South China Sea claimed by them, Vietnam and the Philippines. But if they do have a pop at Taiwan, remember that only 15 countries recognise Taiwan as a sovereign state, and the US, U.K. and EU countries are not among them (if you are interested they are Guatemala, Honduras, Haiti, Paraguay, Nicaragua, Eswatini, Tuvalu, Nauru, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Marshall Isalnds, Palau, and the Vatican City). To me, this is tacit acceptance of Beijing’s claim to sovereignty, and certainly no guarantee that an attack will be met with anything other than words and sanctions.