Lost a third of its value against the Thai Baht during this time, hard to see it pulling all that back, even if Article 50 was revoked or there was a Remain referendum vote giving greater stability. Since the new government has talked loose about No Deal, the Pound has plummeted daily. Idiots. Or playing the currency markets.
Off Topic The Politics Thread
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So you mean business in general, not markets? So we weren’t talking about the same thing. Be more precise with your language!
You are of course right about confidence. Pre 2016 there was an average annual investment of £2.5bn in the UK car industry. For the first six months of this year investment was £90m. £330m at least has been spent on Brexit preparations by the industry. This is more than cyclical variation. JLR has said that it will invest hundreds of millions of £ converting its Castle Bromwich plant to make electric cars over the coming years. The German car industry is investing €58bn over the next three years on the same thing. Once these investments are made they are made, the UK has missed out on billions in investment because of uncertainty, and that gap can never be caught up.
Consumer spending is at an all time high in absolute terms (I suppose inflation makes this inevitable) but growth is very low. That might be down to Brexit uncertainty but is also down to the fact that we are, on average, poorer than we were in 2007. That’s just down to capitalism.
Good question. I think I’ve been pretty clear that, although I voted Remain, and think leaving is a seriously bad idea for the majority of people in this country, for me the referendum was clear and has to be honoured. I can’t be arsed with all these arguments about what Leave voters actually voted for, what was on the ballot paper was pretty clear to me, stay v leave, and my assumption was that leave meant what we now call a ‘hard Brexit’. Any deal will be better than no deal for people’s actual lives, but that isn’t the issue for some, it’s the principle etc etc. I know what I think is more important, but what I think is irrelevant, and to some offensive, apparently.
I was drawn to post Johnson’s alleged new approach to the deal (it won’t be accepted I think, the Irish backstop isn’t about technology, trade agreements etc, it’s about basic logic. You can’t honour the Good Friday Agreement and not be in a Customs Union with Ireland, which means being in a Customs Union with the EU. As we were already in a Customs Union with Ireland when the Agreement was, er, agreed, nobody paid it much attention) not because I dislike it - I hope it works, or anything to end this monotony happens - but because the sheer scale of Johnson’s plate spinning is breathtaking. He’s making promises to whoever happens to be in front of his face, proper populism, it’s a real eye opener. The Tories are no longer the party of fiscal responsibility it seems. But he only actually needs to deliver one thing in the short term, lets get that sorted first and see how he handles the medium term consequences.
At the risk of further trying the patience of yourself and others on this topic, my recollection of the days and weeks after the referendum is of lots of talk around 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit scenarios, with a soft Brexit being Norway or some such arrangement and a hard Brexit being a Canada-style free trade deal outside the Single Market and Customs Union (ignoring the Irish border issue). The possibility of leaving without a deal at all was not discussed until much later - i.e. when it became apparent that May might not be able to get her deal approved by Parliament. Did you really think that this was what a Leave vote could mean when you went into the ballot box?
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It would seem that I had to stress that I wasn't just referring to quotable securities markets twice before you got there, Stan. Please keep up, Old Boy.
Very sorry about the use of unfamiliar language. On a day to day basis I'm generally in the throes of examining markets, market sectors and the like in order to look at the best places to invest dosh into privately held start-ups and the like. At a push I might use 'business sectors' but it doesn't really hold the same thrust as 'market sectors' or 'sub-markets'.
I was talking about the same thing. You weren't. Happy to have been of service.
It might also be down to the fact that past high spending was on the back of consumer credit and (hopefully) people are beginning to realise that this bubble cannot continue to grow without going pop at some point. Some hope.
He has around 90 days to come up with something. I don't much blame him for dashing about shooting the **** with whoever will listen. If you throw enough **** at a wall some of it will eventually stick.
I agree that the use of the word 'inevitable' was a bit strong. However - England and Scotland have been pulling away from each other since the 80s (since Thatcher) - in fact since heavy industry stopped being the motor of the UK. With regard to Brexit - ok. the British have voted to commence on a journey (which I accept) but it is legitimate to ask where the destination of that journey is. If I thought that an independent Britain would be a self sufficient, decentralized, republic based on communal ownership of the means of production - a country purely judged on the well being of it's entire population, then I would be a brexiteer as well. But that isn't the expected destination. All the signs suggest that a loosening of ties to the EU. will be accompanied by a strengthening of trans Atlantic ties. Unfortunately whereas Brussels understands the idea of pooled sovereignty amongst equals, Washington doesn't. Economic ties to the USA almost automatically imply political and military ones as well. The future of Britain outside of the EU. implies closer allignment with the USA on all levels - it implies deregulation in economics, environmental laws, worker protections - in short a race to the bottom, a bargain basement society which is attractive to foreign investment. This is not a picture which Scotland can go along with - England and Scotland have moved away from each other in so far that the neo liberal model has never really had much influence north of the border - a further step in that direction would polarize the countries to breaking point. If England is ready to become a satellite of the USA then Scotland is not. This is why I used the word 'inevitable', although I realize that the practical road to Scottish independence is a long and difficult one. Of course i don't want it to happen - i was born in Watford of full Scottish parentage, and so have a foot in both camps. I am also aware that my resistance to American cultural and political imperialism is probably greater than my love of the EU. If we are to fall under the influence of Washington, Beijing or Brussels, then I would much prefer the last of these as an equal partner.
This is the consequence of our inept elected representatives to get a proper job done. Is that good enough reason to call the whole thing off? I don't think so. If it were possible to push the deadline back until a more appealing deal could be struck, then I'd be in favour of that. But the EU has made it pretty clear that there's little to bugger-all lattitude available as far as amending the deal May presented to parliament. We either accept it or we don't is their message. Our MPs rejected it - not just the one's you despise, you old class warrior, you - which is why we're now in the mess we're in with the clock ticking.
Some of us are in danger of exhibiting signs of Stockholm Syndrome as far as the EU is concerned.
If you see Brussels as the partner that offers the greatest prospect of delivering your Utopian Marxist republic, then you've more eloquently put my case for Leave better than I ever could.
I have visions of you walking around entering names into your little red book. Come the revolution, please could I at least choose the lamppost that I'm going to be strung up from?
Did I say that I see Brussels as a partner for this end ? I think not. I stated that I saw Brussels as being a lesser threat to British sovereignty than the threat represented by Washington - nothing more than that. My dream society (if you like to refer to it in that way) has little to do with either Brussels or Karl Marx - the left has often been very critical of the EU. seeing it as a neo liberal club, and I agree with them on this, but the alternative currently on offer (ie. closer allignment to the USA) is even worse.If you see Brussels as the partner that offers the greatest prospect of delivering your Utopian Marxist republic, then you've more eloquently put my case for Leave better than I ever could.
I have visions of you walking around entering names into your little red book. Come the revolution, please could I at least choose the lamppost that I'm going to be strung up from?
Not a good enough reason to call it off, but good enough to let the people vote again, I would say. As you know, I would have gone along with May's deal at the last (with firm guarantees on worker's rights etc.), but I don't believe that leaving on 31st October without a deal should be allowed to happen without a proper mandate. There was no mandate for this outcome from the first referendum, I maintain, because the possibility was never discussed by Leave campaigners.
Your talk of Stockholm Syndrome and religious cults is odd. I don't believe that many of those that voted Remain did so thinking that the EU was perfect in all ways - far from it. Just that we are better off being part of this imperfect institution, whilst trying to change it for the better. As Cologne says, I'd rather be aligned with Europe than Trump's US.
As you know, I frequently do ‘odd’.
I don’t think May’s deal was discussed by Leave campaigners either.
My apologies. I incorrectly deduced from the language you used about the U.K. becoming a republic, communal ownership and means to production as being something it wasn’t.
Well no, of course May's deal wasn't discussed, but all kinds of 'soft' and 'hard' scenarios were, none of which included leaving without a deal at all.
Other than forget the whole thing, what would you do if you were PM right now, Strolls?
I'd go back to the EU and ask for the Norway-plus arrangement.
****ing hell, Strolls. We've agreed and can never argue ever again.
I feel the hand of history on my shoulder. If only Johnson would take note of this landmark moment as the way to heal the country's wounds.
Irish Central Bank Warns of 100,000 Jobs Lost if No Deal
The Central Bank of Ireland has sounded off about potential ‘cliff-edge’ risks in the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit:
“The main outstanding source of risk to financial stability in Ireland stems from a worse-than-expected macroeconomic shock. This could arise if the expected negative impact through trade channels is compounded by a sharp increase in uncertainty and a fall in confidence, with knock-on effects to Irish employment, incomes and investment. Ireland’s relatively acute exposure to Brexit may also negatively alter investor sentiment towards Irish assets, with adverse implications for financing conditions of an already relatively indebted private sector. Given the extent of direct and indirect exposures, this would result in unanticipated losses for the domestic financial system.”
The Central Bank forecasts that in a No Deal scenario Irish economic output could be approximately 6% lower in 2020. In the understated language of central bankers they warn of
“… severe financial market dislocation and have potential knock-on effects for financial stability in Ireland. Negative income shocks arising from a disorderly Brexit scenario would present challenges to the private sector in Ireland, and the domestic banking system from which they have borrowed .Despite recent delevering and balance sheet repair, the Irish non-financial sectors remain heavily indebted. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income ranks fifth highest within the EU and slightly above the OCED average,while a small pocket of SMEs still carry high debt levels. Irish retail banks remain the most important source of external financing for households and SMEs. The exposure of the Irish banking system to SMEs is significant vis-à-vis sectors that would be most affected by a disorderly Brexit, such as agriculture (Primary Industries), manufacturing, retail trade and tourism (Hotels & Restaurants). In addition, one quarter of Irish banks’ credit exposures are directly to borrowers in the UK, predominantly to the household and corporate sectors, (62% and 31% of UK exposures, respectively), creating a direct source of risk from a disorderly Brexit.”
Yesterday’s third quarterly report report from the bank predicts there will be around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year and more than 100,000 fewer jobs over the medium term compared to their forecast in the event of no deal. The Irish workforce is only two and a quarter million – one fifteenth the size of the UK. This would be like the UK losing 1.5 million jobs, almost 5% of the workforce…
The Irish business community is getting uneasy and going to start demanding politicians get real and show some flexibility over the backstop. The Irish economy is at full capacity with GDP growth forecast to come in at a scorching 4.9% this year, this would plunge to 0.7% next year in the event of no deal…
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The Central Bank of Ireland has sounded off about potential ‘cliff-edge’ risks in the event of a no-deal, no-transition Brexit:
“The main outstanding source of risk to financial stability in Ireland stems from a worse-than-expected macroeconomic shock. This could arise if the expected negative impact through trade channels is compounded by a sharp increase in uncertainty and a fall in confidence, with knock-on effects to Irish employment, incomes and investment. Ireland’s relatively acute exposure to Brexit may also negatively alter investor sentiment towards Irish assets, with adverse implications for financing conditions of an already relatively indebted private sector. Given the extent of direct and indirect exposures, this would result in unanticipated losses for the domestic financial system.”
The Central Bank forecasts that in a No Deal scenario Irish economic output could be approximately 6% lower in 2020. In the understated language of central bankers they warn of
“… severe financial market dislocation and have potential knock-on effects for financial stability in Ireland. Negative income shocks arising from a disorderly Brexit scenario would present challenges to the private sector in Ireland, and the domestic banking system from which they have borrowed .Despite recent delevering and balance sheet repair, the Irish non-financial sectors remain heavily indebted. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income ranks fifth highest within the EU and slightly above the OCED average,while a small pocket of SMEs still carry high debt levels. Irish retail banks remain the most important source of external financing for households and SMEs. The exposure of the Irish banking system to SMEs is significant vis-à-vis sectors that would be most affected by a disorderly Brexit, such as agriculture (Primary Industries), manufacturing, retail trade and tourism (Hotels & Restaurants). In addition, one quarter of Irish banks’ credit exposures are directly to borrowers in the UK, predominantly to the household and corporate sectors, (62% and 31% of UK exposures, respectively), creating a direct source of risk from a disorderly Brexit.”
Yesterday’s third quarterly report report from the bank predicts there will be around 34,000 fewer jobs by the end of next year and more than 100,000 fewer jobs over the medium term compared to their forecast in the event of no deal. The Irish workforce is only two and a quarter million – one fifteenth the size of the UK. This would be like the UK losing 1.5 million jobs, almost 5% of the workforce…
You must log in or register to see images
The Irish business community is getting uneasy and going to start demanding politicians get real and show some flexibility over the backstop. The Irish economy is at full capacity with GDP growth forecast to come in at a scorching 4.9% this year, this would plunge to 0.7% next year in the event of no deal…