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Discussion in 'Queens Park Rangers' started by Stroller, Jun 25, 2015.
Do you think enough voters understood the implications of various outcomes?
I’ll never be asked again during my lifetime.
Rock and a hard place, huh?
Would you like to stay or leave?
Hmmm... tough one.
With respect, your statement that the break up of the union is the ‘inevitable conclusion’ is rubbish.....
Of course it might be a possibility but to say it’s ‘inevitable’ is wrong....
Markets don’t have consciousness or intelligence. They are run on computer algorithms and human herd instinct emotion. Markets have recovered well since the global financial bollocks up of 2008. Average incomes and living standards haven’t. The FTSE hit an 11 month high today, as the £ sank. **** the markets, like they **** us.
Not entirely true, Stan.
Markets are broad things and not just limited to quotable securities. I know stuff, me.
Which bits aren’t true? Stock markets are at or close to record highs, yet we still have austerity and lower standards of living than in 2007. Handily, if they plummet it will lead to more austerity for millions of people who have never held a share certificate in their lives. Currency markets seem to work in the same way, but at least ordinary people can sometimes benefit when they go on holiday (obviously not at the moment).
What markets are you referring too? Commodities? ****ing derivatives? Smithfield?
According to his ex employers at the Telegraph, usually well informed on Tory matters, Johnson is asking the EU to extend the ‘implementation’ period from one to two years, during which the UK would stay in the Single Market and Customs Union, and offering to pay for the privilege, in return for getting the backstop changed and buying time to get a trade deal in place.
Meanwhile it appears that a couple of years ago Dominic ‘Nutter’ Cummings let slip that the instincts of the public about Tory MPs is correct - they don’t care about poor people or the NHS. Mind you he hasn’t got much good stuff to say about the hard line Brexiters either
I kind of like him. Farage having a go at him tonight and the ERG hate him.
I’m not restricting my comments just to quotable securities. By markets, I mean the world of commerce in general. The current climate of uncertainty means businesses are cautious about investing, consumers are less inclined to spend etc. It’s all about confidence as it always has been when it comes to peaks & troughs, boom & bust.
So, what’s your opinion on that, Stan?
It’s not a million miles away from what I was suggesting in a post earlier today. We effectively pay for the privilege as a member state today anyway, don’t we?
Sounds perfectly sensible to me, if true.
So which remain did the remainers vote for
The one that was in place the day of the vote
Or the one that requires a further transfer of powers
Maybe a European income tax
Or join a Euro army
Or if you want to stay in you give up the pound
The irony is most remainers, particularly the young, would run a mile from joining an army of any shape or size...
How do you work out that project fear is now project fact, nobody knows what will occur when we leave, then and only then will the remainer project fear / scaremongering or the leavers look nothing is going to change we’re going to be billions better off scenarios be found out, until then everything said by either side is pie in the sky.
I'm not Stan but sounds a good compromise and if it's true it's reassuring to know he is considering different options. Have to wait and see what the reaction is obviously!
Lost a third of its value against the Thai Baht during this time, hard to see it pulling all that back, even if Article 50 was revoked or there was a Remain referendum vote giving greater stability. Since the new government has talked loose about No Deal, the Pound has plummeted daily. Idiots. Or playing the currency markets.
So you mean business in general, not markets? So we weren’t talking about the same thing. Be more precise with your language!
You are of course right about confidence. Pre 2016 there was an average annual investment of £2.5bn in the UK car industry. For the first six months of this year investment was £90m. £330m at least has been spent on Brexit preparations by the industry. This is more than cyclical variation. JLR has said that it will invest hundreds of millions of £ converting its Castle Bromwich plant to make electric cars over the coming years. The German car industry is investing €58bn over the next three years on the same thing. Once these investments are made they are made, the UK has missed out on billions in investment because of uncertainty, and that gap can never be caught up.
Consumer spending is at an all time high in absolute terms (I suppose inflation makes this inevitable) but growth is very low. That might be down to Brexit uncertainty but is also down to the fact that we are, on average, poorer than we were in 2007. That’s just down to capitalism.
Good question. I think I’ve been pretty clear that, although I voted Remain, and think leaving is a seriously bad idea for the majority of people in this country, for me the referendum was clear and has to be honoured. I can’t be arsed with all these arguments about what Leave voters actually voted for, what was on the ballot paper was pretty clear to me, stay v leave, and my assumption was that leave meant what we now call a ‘hard Brexit’. Any deal will be better than no deal for people’s actual lives, but that isn’t the issue for some, it’s the principle etc etc. I know what I think is more important, but what I think is irrelevant, and to some offensive, apparently.
I was drawn to post Johnson’s alleged new approach to the deal (it won’t be accepted I think, the Irish backstop isn’t about technology, trade agreements etc, it’s about basic logic. You can’t honour the Good Friday Agreement and not be in a Customs Union with Ireland, which means being in a Customs Union with the EU. As we were already in a Customs Union with Ireland when the Agreement was, er, agreed, nobody paid it much attention) not because I dislike it - I hope it works, or anything to end this monotony happens - but because the sheer scale of Johnson’s plate spinning is breathtaking. He’s making promises to whoever happens to be in front of his face, proper populism, it’s a real eye opener. The Tories are no longer the party of fiscal responsibility it seems. But he only actually needs to deliver one thing in the short term, lets get that sorted first and see how he handles the medium term consequences.
At the risk of further trying the patience of yourself and others on this topic, my recollection of the days and weeks after the referendum is of lots of talk around 'soft' or 'hard' Brexit scenarios, with a soft Brexit being Norway or some such arrangement and a hard Brexit being a Canada-style free trade deal outside the Single Market and Customs Union (ignoring the Irish border issue). The possibility of leaving without a deal at all was not discussed until much later - i.e. when it became apparent that May might not be able to get her deal approved by Parliament. Did you really think that this was what a Leave vote could mean when you went into the ballot box?
It would seem that I had to stress that I wasn't just referring to quotable securities markets twice before you got there, Stan. Please keep up, Old Boy.
Very sorry about the use of unfamiliar language. On a day to day basis I'm generally in the throes of examining markets, market sectors and the like in order to look at the best places to invest dosh into privately held start-ups and the like. At a push I might use 'business sectors' but it doesn't really hold the same thrust as 'market sectors' or 'sub-markets'.
I was talking about the same thing. You weren't. Happy to have been of service.