Off Topic The Politics Thread

[Goldhawk-Road]

Are we seeing a break in the ranks of the EU? On the brink of recession, Germany are getting rattled by the idea of a no-deal and have put out a pleading video asking the UK to stay. Nothing wrong with the tone of the video from our Continental trading partners, but it is the first overt representation for the establishment of a member country to the UK, circumventing Brussels.

 

[ELLERS]

Latest YouGov poll moves out of the margin of error differences realm.

Only 25% of respondents object to the idea of a second referendum
56% Remain 44% Leave
65% Remain v 35% May’s deal
59% Remain v 41% No deal
With 3 options 52% Remain, 39% No deal, 9% Norway plus or
54% Remain, 38% No deal, 8% Customs Union

One thing is clear, the British public understand that Norway/Customs Union are crappy options, only useful for mitigating economic challenges and leaving us in a limbo of continued bickering, and it should be a choice between staying in properly or leaving properly.

I don’t like referenda and don’t want another one, I want our politicians to do their jobs, but the tide might be turning on this.

Meanwhile, the DUP is saying, quietly, that it would accept Mays deal with a permanent Customs Union, as they said in their manifesto for 2017.

Yes I heard about this poll and I also heard someone say they are a leaver and when asked said he would remain. That's what we do.
There will not be a 'losers vote'. I listened to 3 very independent experts yesterday who said there will not be a second vote due to many things.
Sorry it ain't gonna happen. You can all keep hoping but it's fantasy Island.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

On average they are. Not better, per se, but more intelligent and informed on the issues. It’s their job to do the research, though I expect many have it done for them, to weigh up the options. Few of us serfs have the time and fewer the inclination to do that.

It's not all about intelligence. The electorate has to watch out for Tories or New Labourites that cosy up to big business for example - or Left wing political activist mp's who make decisions on the economy having never been near a business or anything like it in their lives

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Did anyone watch Diana Abbott on QT She is so thick.

I've got that delight waiting in my Sky box for tonight! Hope she doesn't let me down

 

[Stroller]

What question would you ask in a referendum, Strolls, apart from Remain?

I'd have 3 choices - No Deal, May's Deal or Remain - on a transferable vote basis.

 

[ELLERS]

What question would you ask in a referendum, Strolls, apart from Remain?

Goldie It won't happen.
Did you hear that Tory speaking to Portillo on This Week regarding a 'losers vote'?
Just like all remaners they want to split the leave vote and can even give a fair question. What was interesting was that she said they would legislate to make it the final say. I.E that result will stand. I saw so what's the point then?

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

I'd have 3 choices - No Deal, May's Deal or Remain - on a transferable vote basis.

What's to say a transferable basis doesn't give Remain an advantage?

 

[ELLERS]

I'd have 3 choices - No Deal, May's Deal or Remain - on a transferable vote basis.

This is where once again you fail. Mays deal is dead and and just lost a historical vote and you want it on a ballot?
How about you respect the first vote and stop undermining the process?

 

[Quite Possibly Raving]

Latest YouGov poll moves out of the margin of error differences realm.

Only 25% of respondents object to the idea of a second referendum
56% Remain 44% Leave
65% Remain v 35% May’s deal
59% Remain v 41% No deal
With 3 options 52% Remain, 39% No deal, 9% Norway plus or
54% Remain, 38% No deal, 8% Customs Union

One thing is clear, the British public understand that Norway/Customs Union are crappy options, only useful for mitigating economic challenges and leaving us in a limbo of continued bickering, and it should be a choice between staying in properly or leaving properly.

I don’t like referenda and don’t want another one, I want our politicians to do their jobs, but the tide might be turning on this.

Meanwhile, the DUP is saying, quietly, that it would accept Mays deal with a permanent Customs Union, as they said in their manifesto for 2017.

I think you're reading a lot into that poll. I would argue that most people don't know what Norway/Customs Union is, and so when presented with the relatively simple options of 'remain' or 'leave' [broad brush terms which are easy to interpret as the reader sees fit] vs 'Norway' or 'Customs Union's [specific terms which you have to have knowledge to understand], it is no surprise the specific terms come out at 8% or so.

I'm not arguing for Norway etc, just critiquing the question and questioning how much we can confidently interpret from those data.

 

[ELLERS]

I've got that delight waiting in my Sky box for tonight! Hope she doesn't let me down

Just look at her and imagine her in government. People have been saying that politicians somehow know more than us and should make decisions for us....I give you Diane Abbott.
Only thing she said that was worth listening to was regarding a 'losers vote' where she said 'Leave would win with a bigger majority'. It's worth watching This Week with Johnson and Portillo discussing the same thing. I also noticed the audience were very vocal as well. People are getting fed up with politicians and simply implementing the vote.

 

[Stroller]

What's to say a transferable basis doesn't give Remain an advantage?

How would it?

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Goldie It won't happen.
Did you hear that Tory speaking to Portillo on This Week regarding a 'losers vote'?
Just like all remaners they want to split the leave vote and can even give a fair question. What was interesting was that she said they would legislate to make it the final say. I.E that result will stand. I saw so what's the point then?

I don't think so either, Ellers. It doesn't surprise me soon after May's awful deal is voted down, that a small minority of Leavers feel like giving up in frustration. It's the timing of the poll, not the results that are significant imo

 

[Stroller]

This is where once again you fail. Mays deal is dead and and just lost a historical vote and you want it on a ballot?
How about you respect the first vote and stop undermining the process?

Tell May it's dead. Her plan is to keep bringing it back until the clock has run down to the point where it's her deal or no deal.

 

[ELLERS]

I think you're reading a lot into that poll. I would argue that most people don't know what Norway/Customs Union is, and so when presented with the relatively simple options of 'remain' or 'leave' [broad brush terms which are easy to interpret as the reader sees fit] vs 'Norway' or 'Customs Union's [specific terms which you have to have knowledge to understand], it is no surprise the specific terms come out at 8% or so.

I'm not arguing for Norway etc, just critiquing the question and questioning how much we can confidently interpret from those data.

They can't. Polls just take your answer and put out the data. What that can't do is tell whether someone is lying our how they are feeling that day. I said before that i gave a fake answer in a poll and many do.

 

[ELLERS]

Tell May it's dead. Her plan is to keep bringing it back until the clock has run down to the point where it's her deal or no deal.

I actually think May is dead. I will say one thing though... She is a Tory through and through and will not kill or split her party over this. You can trust me on that . i know where this will all end up.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

How would it?

I'm no expert, so I was asking you! If a single transferable voting system was so great, we'd adopt it for general elections. It introduces a complexity which, if the result could be mistrusted in any way, would solve nothing. For example, not everyone voting would understand what was asked of them.

 

[Stroller]

I'm no expert, so I was asking you! If a single transferable voting system was so great, we'd adopt it for general elections. It introduces a complexity which, if the result could be mistrusted in any way, would solve nothing. For example, not everyone voting would understand what was asked of them.

Probably too complex for General Elections with numerous candidates, but straightforward in this case. Voters are asked for a first and second choice, the option with the fewest first choices votes is eliminated and the second choices on those ballot papers are allocated to the remaining options, giving an overall majority to one or the other.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

Probably too complex for General Elections with numerous candidates, but straightforward in this case. Voters are asked for a first and second choice, the option with the fewest first choices votes is eliminated and the second choice options on the those ballot papers are allocated to the remaining options, giving an overall majority to one or the other.

I've read an article in the FT (below). The FT (an overtly Remain newspaper) suggests that what you have suggested is (a) complicated and (b) could possibly give a result (no deal) with Parliament can't live with. Furthermore, the complexity issue could lead to low turn out which effectively nullifies the result of the vote

https://www.ft.com/content/04f05488-f887-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c

 

[Stroller]

I've read an article in the FT (below). The FT suggests that what you have suggested is (a) complicated and (b) could possibly give a result (no deal) with Parliament can't live with. Furthermore, the complexity issue could lead to low turn out which effectively nullifies the result of the vote

https://www.ft.com/content/04f05488-f887-11e8-8b7c-6fa24bd5409c

I wouldn't have said that it was complicated to write 1 and 2 on a ballot paper. Mind you, Leave voters were of lesser intelligence, weren't they?

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

I wouldn't have said it was complicated to write 1 and 2 on a ballot paper. Mind you, Leave voters were of lesser intelligence, weren't they?

So long as voters know what 1 and 2 represent. I'm sure there are a lot of voters in the country, Leave and Remain, that don't really understand the complexities of the backstop and the merits or otherwise of the withdrawal agreement v political declaration.