Woke up this morning vowing to put the GE behind me however a show in BBC Radio 4 returned me, not to 'political', but to review mode. What actually happened on Thursday?
I must first of all state that I hold no political, statistical or current affairs degrees or qualifications at all. Neither have I reviewed the votes won by each party in each constituency.
Here are my thoughts:
1. SNP surge did not affect Conservative seats as they held their only seat albeit with a greatly reduced majority (sorry for 'political' bent).
2. The Liberal Democrat collapse; relevant but does in itself explain the outcome in seats won by each party; would Libdem voters change to Conservative?
3. The reduction in the UKIP voting intention from about 17% to the final result of 12%. This in itself does not explain the result however if we 'drill down' (workspeak - sorry) into the reduction of around 5% we may get some understanding of the final outcome of seats attained by each of the 'major' parties. What if seven or eight percent of former Consrevative returned to vote 'Tory' and two or three percent of Labour voters changed to UKIP. Now, why would my contention take place:
Conservatives may have 'returned' because of the promise of European referendum in 2017 plus the proposed increases to the levels at which an individual becomes liable to pay income tax at 45% (upper middle wage earners) and the proposed increases in Inheritax Tax exemption levels.
Labour voters may have switched to UKIP because of the referendum and the 'belief' of the wage squeeze caused by both skilled and unskilled eastern European workers.
The above factors would be more felt in the marginal seats held previously by both major parties.
Fellow contributors; this is solely my opinion so if you intend to 'rubbish' it please, oh please, don't bite my head off and let me have your contentions.
Thanks.
Oh, I must return to a 'political' statement. If any Eurosceptic believes that a 'Brexit' with the consequent stop of European immigration would result in business owners (small, medium or large) becoming suddenly (suddenly becoming?) magnanimous with future wage increases I would suggest you look out your windows to check for flying Berkshires!!!
Have a great Saturday.