There will be some interesting times ahead during these negotiations and whilst many on here are gamblers by nature I am not sure too many would have the stomach for a gamble of this magnitude on either side. The big gamble is Cameron has to insist on what he wants with the threat of the referendum going against Europe if they refuse, he will hope the give him enough to make a case for staying in.
There is virtually no prospect of Cameron getting enough meaningful reform that he will be fighting the ‘stay in’ corner with much more ammunition than he already has to use. The ‘stay in’ argument is almost certainly going to be run from the ‘3 million jobs at risk’ lie. Try the Institute of Economic Affairs view
here.
How I see it is that the Eastern European nations will not allow any change on the free movement of people and of course they are right to as it does underpin everything else. What we will seek is the ability to put in place robust structures that ensure non UK residents cannot easily claim benefits, housing and medical care.
All the former Soviet bloc countries really want to be back in a structure like the U.S.S.R. but with some sort of local political autonomy. That is why I call the European Union the European Soviet Socialist Republic – and it is destined to fail in the same way.
The plain and simple fact is that only one country in Europe is actually creating jobs at this time, so everyone from the impoverished countries wants to come here. Stopping them claiming benefits will not stop them coming. That is why the numbers rocketed in the most recent statistics. We already have a housing shortage without creating more demand for what little housing is available (that just drives prices up and rents up making the house price bubble even worse). Many of the immigrant workers want to bring their families, which will require more schools and health infrastructure that cannot just appear overnight.
Once upon a time, the downtrodden European headed for the USA. As it says on that statue near Ellis Island:
Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore,
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me:
I lift my lamp beside the golden door.
The words of Emma Lazarus are not inscribed at Heathrow or any other airport; at Dover or any other port. There is no golden door just an open one; and the only way to control the influx is to get out of the EU and become part of the European Economic Area like Norway or go it alone like Switzerland.