The EU debate - Part III

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/30/brexit-fails-boost-support-scottish-independence/

One month after the UK's shock decision to leave the EU, the latest YouGov research in Scotland shows no real shift towards independence. Were another Scottish referendum to be held tomorrow, Scots would vote to remain in the UK by 53% to 47%. The results represent a move to the independence option of just 1% since YouGov last asked the question in early May.

https://www.ft.com/content/33de1fbc-3dfb-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

Spain’s Rajoy opposes EU talks with Scotland
Spanish PM dashes Scottish hopes of retaining membership in bloc

 

The more I look at it, the more convinced I am thay Scotland joining the EU is a non starter.
To many hurdles and then all 27 countries would need to accept them.

Independence maybe, joining EFTA like Norway is very possible but full entry would be a long way away if it ever happened.

 

Scotland is a basket case, the EU will not want them, and Spain said it would veto them

 

That was several months ago. Opinions change, especially as our exit is turning into a farce.

Of course Rajoy currently opposes talking to the Scots, they're currently still part of the UK...

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/13176632.Entry_to_the_EU__would_be_vetoed_/
THE Irish politician who led his country into the single currency has claimed both Spain and Belgium would veto Scottish entry into the EU - and should this obstacle be overcome Scotland would be forced to adopt the euro.

 

Agreed it's a moot point, Right now.

But their vote to remain part of the EU indicates the possibility of tnem going for it

 

That's over 2yrs old, ffs!...

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36656980

Brexit: Spain and France oppose Scotland EU talks

 

Why is Scotland a basket case?

 

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/09/01/davidson-now-more-popular-sturgeon-scotland/

September 1, 2016, 6:30 p.m.

Scots don't support a second independence referendum

The appetite for a second referendum will disappoint the SNP, however, with YouGov's latest Scotland survey finding just 37% of Scots backing a second independence referendum and 50% opposed. Should they be successful in forcing another vote, the results would be almost identical to last time, with 54% of Scots voting against independence and 46% in favour.

 

Good luck.

 

Rajoy is concerned that a Scotland independant of the UK would inspire seperatist movements in the Basque and Catalan regions.

 

Copied from a comment on the yougov link.

Scotlands budget deficit is now the largest in the European Union, worse than Greece. Scotland spent 68.6b 2015/6 and only collected 53.7b in tax. With a deficit of 14b or 9.5% of national income.
They spend 12,800 on every man woman and child which was 1200 more than the rest of the uk and that's set to go up to 1600 more and still they have a huge black hole.

 

They don't have a deficit as it's part of the UK government's deficit.
All it means is if they went for independence then there would need to be substantial public sector cuts, continue to expand the green energy development they have promoted and/or have an improvement in oil prices. Not that they are a basket case.

 

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8218

Institute for Fiscal Studies

The Scottish Government’s Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS)estimates the overall levels of government revenues and spending in Scotland and the implicit budget deficit or surplus in the previous year.

 

What are you trying to prove?
'while the Scottish Government can vary income tax, for instance, to increase or reduce the amounts it raises from these new powers, it cannot adopt a different fiscal stance to that of the UK government (changes in revenues must be balanced by changes in spending).'

 

http://www.parliament.scot/parliamentarybusiness/17534.aspx

The Scottish Government's Draft Budget sets out their planned spending for the upcoming financial year. This page provides information and analysis to support Parliamentary scrutiny.

Below you will find links to the Draft Budget 2015-16 and spreadsheets produced by the Financial Scrutiny Unit showing the proposed spending at different levels of detail, based on information provided by the Scottish Government.

 

The taxation in Scotland goes to the treasury. The Scottish Government then recieves a budget just like other government departments.

You cannot call Scotland a basket case because it spends a budget based on money received from the treasury rather than the amount of taxation that occurs in Scotland.

 

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14701901.UK_subsidy_to_Scotland_soars_after_oil_price_slump/

24 Aug 2016

SCOTLAND has suffered an “economic shock” as a result of collapsing oil prices, Nicola Sturgeon has admitted, as new figures showed the country’s record reliance on UK subsidy.

The First Minister’s opponents said the numbers had shattered the economic case for independence and called on her to rule out a second referendum.

Spending was £1200 more per head in Scotland than in the rest of the UK in 2015-16, while taxes raised per head were £400 lower, a gap of £1600.

Scottish Secretary David Mundell said the UK had protected Scottish living standards: “Scotland weathered a dramatic slump in oil revenues last year because we are part of a United Kingdom that has at its heart a system for pooling and sharing resources. The UK, not the EU, is the vital union for Scotland’s prosperity.”

Daniel Mahoney of the Centre for Policy Studies said Scotland’s finances were “precarious”.

He said: “This should concern those pushing for independence. With independence, the Scottish Government would have the burden of a high budget deficit, which would inevitably lead to a combination of fiscal instability, higher taxes and a cut in government spending.

“Scotland’s high budget deficit would also make entry into the EU even less likely – given new member states are expected to have a budget deficit of just 3 per cent of GDP.”

 

I agree that is the case with Labour but Labour isn't seen as a serious political party any more - it's more of a protest group. I wouldn't agree with the other parties. What would you say the big changes have been with the other parties?