The EU debate - Part III

Is that what Tarquin gave your missus when he took her in the Mini?

 

That might finally explain the pidgin English.

 

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The thing that most pisses me off about the Brexit vote is that while there was a majority in favour when we first joined, because there was a substantial vote against the Govt always had an excuse for not embracing full membership, so we lost valuable protections for poorer people like the Social Chapter of the treaties, other opt outs and also wider economic and social benefits of the Euro, Schengen etc. Now that the vote is marginally in favour of leaving it is being interpreted as a hard instruction from the people to get out at all costs.

 

I dont think it will a full hard brexit, its all talk, the EU are talking hard and we are back. I expect a compromise of sorts.

 

Which aspect are you expecting this compromise to be reached on?

 

That wasn't my point. No Conservative argued that we not joining Schengen and signing up to the Social Chapter was anti-democratic because there had been a referendum in favour of being in the EU. Now that there is a narrow majority for out that's all we hear.

 

Good luck with that

 

The cost of trade with / the level of people moment between the EU.
There are two deals that have to be done to the satisfaction of both sides :

the real one (trading, movement of people etc) and the political one
(saving face, claiming "we won" while the other side didn't) .

The two deluded extremes of the spectrum from which the current sabre-
rattling is occurring on both sides, won't even be close to what the final
agreement is.

 

Probably. In the meantime the pound plummets and inward investment stalls as a direct result of our govts rhetoric.

 

And the jabbering of morons like sauce Hollande (who may be blown away come next May -
perhaps he is angling for a post in the EU after then - would explain a lot) .

 

Their fear of a successful UK destabilising the EU drives a lot of it.

 

I'm at a loss to see where the compromise on the key issue will come i.e. free movement

How can the EU give the UK single market access without insisting that one of their key pillars is a pre-requisite?

I don't think the EU have been sabre rattling when it comes to that issue, they've been crystal clear on it from before the referendum.

No free movement = no access to the single market.

Quite why people seem to think this is going to now change I can't fathom.

I don't see how the EU can compromise on that point at all, as the far right in a number of other EU states would see that as the UK having it's cake and eating it, and they'd be shouting for referendums with the UK's deal being the yardstick.

 

Underneath this fanciful article is an advert for telegraph money transfers. "take advantage of the strong Euro to send money back to the UK".

 

And what is this fear based on ??
The UK goes its own way and prospers. The EU carries on regardless and prospers.
No harm to either side, best wishes to both.

 

The EU won't want to see the UK improve it's position, in fact quite the reverse, they'll want the UK to be the equivalent of nailing a dead crow to a farm gate.

A cautionary tale....

 

If that is the position, then there is no ground for negotiation so no point in
bothering to discuss anything with the EU.
Set the arena for UK/EU trade war the moment the UK declares itself to be completely
decoupled from the EU.

That is real certainty for you.

 

The UK may just remain as it in the grand plan, but not needing to be part of
the EU to do so.

But as suspected, dogma will attempt to prevail over pragma.

 

It's based on the fact there are inherent problems with the EU that the Eurozone countries can't easily escape and the solutions are unpalatable to their populations.

 

Not so.

Full single market access will require free movement. The negotiation will be around the tariffs. If a deal isn't reached we'll end up with WTO tariffs at the end of the 2 years - UNLESS, they can negotiate a continuation of the current arrangement until a deal is ratified.

Don't forget, any deal has to be agreed firstly by a majority of the 27 states, then by the EU parliament and then by each an every one of the 27.