The Epsom Derby

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very strange Derby this one

so the favourite probably won't stay
the second favourite has just had a good win but now has to race a week later?
the third favourite has beaten practically no one unimpressively

and then there are unknown German and French horses.

tricky - I will probably bet on whatever Ryan Moore rides therefore. anyone know which horse he will have ?
 
I actually thought that Magician was Awesome with a capital ‘A’ at the weekend. He put up one of those very rare moments that simply take your breath away and lead you to exclaim’ Cor blimey..I say!’ The way he travelled and then quickened was most impressive. After that performance I’ll simply say that if he runs, he wins.

Disappointed to see that Nevis was taken out of the heat yesterday but await with keen interest to see what his next engagement will be.
 
You can still get Libertarian at 16/1 and Ruler Of The World at 12/1. One (not anyone here) could be forgiven for thinking this looks to be a good Derby with 4 unbeaten horses in the field (there are 7 unbeaten this year). Probably the worst Derby for some time. Let's hope something wins by 10l, head in chest.
 
I think folk only see it as a poor Derby because there is no credible Newmarket challenger in the field - what does that say about the state of British racing then?

Plenty of other decent animals in there though and I think it looks like being a cracking race at this point:

Dawn Approach - the unbeaten Champion 2YO and 2000 Guineas winner
Battle Of Marengo - Breeders Cup winner plus winner of notable trials such as the Beresford, Ballysax and Derrinstown
Chopin - real unknow quantity who romped away with a German Group 3 last time out and represents resurgent German bloodlines
Ocovango - from the masterful Fabre yard, following closely the route taken by Pour Moi a couple of years ago
Magician - ultra-impressive winner of the Dee Stakes and Irish 2000 Guineas
Ruler Of The World - routed the field in the Chester Vase
Libertarian - winner of the Dante Stakes, the most recognised trial
Mars - stayed on eye-catchingly in the 2000 guineas and totally unexposed

Not sure what else one could wish for in a Derby line up?

Certainly a good deal better than the race Camelot won last year - apart from the winner, the best subsequent rating achieved by that field was 115.
 
brilliant write up OddDog!

well that has got me a lot more excited about the big race on Saturday.
I will be there as ever. Coronation Cup as well that day and I am looking forward to seeing St Nicholas Abbey win again
 
People having a go at battle of Marengo has beaten no one ! Rubbish have a look what he has beat this year ! Sugar boy who then went on to win the sandown trial and then loch garmin a group 1 winning 2yo . Also oddy battle of Marengo has never won the breeders cup
 
OddDog said:
I think folk only see it as a poor Derby because there is no credible Newmarket challenger in the field - what does that say about the state of British racing then?

Plenty of other decent animals in there though and I think it looks like being a cracking race at this point:

Dawn Approach - the unbeaten Champion 2YO and 2000 Guineas winner
Battle Of Marengo - Breeders Cup winner plus winner of notable trials such as the Beresford, Ballysax and Derrinstown
Chopin - real unknow quantity who romped away with a German Group 3 last time out and represents resurgent German bloodlines
Ocovango - from the masterful Fabre yard, following closely the route taken by Pour Moi a couple of years ago
Magician - ultra-impressive winner of the Dee Stakes and Irish 2000 Guineas
Ruler Of The World - routed the field in the Chester Vase
Libertarian - winner of the Dante Stakes, the most recognised trial
Mars - stayed on eye-catchingly in the 2000 guineas and totally unexposed

Not sure what else one could wish for in a Derby line up?

Certainly a good deal better than the race Camelot won last year - apart from the winner, the best subsequent rating achieved by that field was 115.
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Sounds very exciting Oddy. Are you in the publicity business. If not, you should be.
 
MickDoonan said:
People having a go at battle of Marengo has beaten no one ! Rubbish have a look what he has beat this year ! Sugar boy who then went on to win the sandown trial and then loch garmin a group 1 winning 2yo . Also oddy battle of Marengo has never won the breeders cup
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Quite right Mick, my enthusiasm getting the better of me. It was the "ICON Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Trial Stakes" at Leopardstown. Artistic licence ;)
 
OddDog said:
I think folk only see it as a poor Derby because there is no credible Newmarket challenger in the field - what does that say about the state of British racing then?

Plenty of other decent animals in there though and I think it looks like being a cracking race at this point:

Dawn Approach - the unbeaten Champion 2YO and 2000 Guineas winner
Battle Of Marengo - Breeders Cup winner plus winner of notable trials such as the Beresford, Ballysax and Derrinstown
Chopin - real unknow quantity who romped away with a German Group 3 last time out and represents resurgent German bloodlines
Ocovango - from the masterful Fabre yard, following closely the route taken by Pour Moi a couple of years ago
Magician - ultra-impressive winner of the Dee Stakes and Irish 2000 Guineas
Ruler Of The World - routed the field in the Chester Vase
Libertarian - winner of the Dante Stakes, the most recognised trial
Mars - stayed on eye-catchingly in the 2000 guineas and totally unexposed

Not sure what else one could wish for in a Derby line up?

Certainly a good deal better than the race Camelot won last year - apart from the winner, the best subsequent rating achieved by that field was 115.
Click to expand...

Debatable whether Camelot ever actually ran to a level above 115 as well Oddy. Last year was a truly dreadful crop of horses. This years group look appreciably better.
 
I don't think we can say it's a good derby before it's even been run..hopefully it is though.

Also too early to say this years crop are better than last.The second in the Guineas was a rag and the only 3-y-o,who had Group form from last year,to face his elders was easily beaten in a listed race at Windsor fter carrying plenty of confidence.He was beaten by one of last years 3-y-o's.

Ballydoyle are very low key about their lot and it's clear that their real Derby horse was Kingsbarns.Magician has similar stamina doubts to the favourite and the others don't look good enough.Perhaps the French/German colts can step up.

I think if Dawn Approach stays he wins..simple as that.

I'm of a wait and see mindset at present re comparing the generations...far too early to decide either way.

Can't get excited about this years race for some reason.
 
Great write up from oddDog! People always seem quite negative in the build up the Derby every year, I dont understand it! This year is one of the most intriguing Derbys for years!

I was looking more into Magician since the weekend, a horse I previously discounted and now having looked further I still discount. There are two clear form lines through Magician, that dont look good.

1) Toronado beat Havana Gold this year by 4L. Magician beat HG by 6.5L. Dawn Approach routed Toronado by 7.5L, which leaves Magician with 5L to make upto Dawn Approach.
2) The horse that came 3L 2nd to Magician at the weekend, Gale Force Ten, beat Don't Bother Me by 3L this season. Don't bother me, was routed by 10L this season to both Dawn Approach and Battle of Marengo, confirming that Magician needs to make up 4 or 5L to Dawn Approach and also 4L to Battle of Marengo.
3) The third pointer for me, is in the last 12 years that I have gone to the Derby, no horse apart from his first run, has finished outside the top 3 in its races before the derby. Magician finished 7th in his final start of last season. In fact only one horse has finished outside the top 2(ignoring first start) and that was Pour Moi. The trends say that horses just dont finish 7th in their 4th outing and go on to win a Derby

I'm still happy with Battle of Marengo. Anti-post EW @ 8/1. He might not be the classiest, but more and more I think he looks nailed on for top3. Whether he wins or not, well depends on Dawn Approach staying or not, doesn't it!
 
Great write up from oddDog! People always seem quite negative in the build up the Derby every year, I dont understand it! This year is one of the most intriguing Derbys for years!

I was looking more into Magician since the weekend, a horse I previously discounted and now having looked further I still discount. There are two clear form lines through Magician, that dont look good.

1) Toronado beat Havana Gold this year by 4L. Magician beat HG by 6.5L. Dawn Approach routed Toronado by 7.5L, which leaves Magician with 5L to make upto Dawn Approach.
2) The horse that came 3L 2nd to Magician at the weekend, Gale Force Ten, beat Don't Bother Me by 3L this season. Don't bother me, was routed by 10L this season to both Dawn Approach and Battle of Marengo, confirming that Magician needs to make up 4 or 5L to Dawn Approach and also 4L to Battle of Marengo.
3) The third pointer for me, is in the last 12 years that I have gone to the Derby, no horse apart from his first run, has finished outside the top 3 in its races before the derby. Magician finished 7th in his final start of last season. In fact only one horse has finished outside the top 2(ignoring first start) and that was Pour Moi. The trends say that horses just dont finish 7th in their 4th outing and go on to win a Derby

I'm still happy with Battle of Marengo. Anti-post EW @ 8/1. He might not be the classiest, but more and more I think he looks nailed on for top3. Whether he wins or not, well depends on Dawn Approach staying or not, doesn't it!
 
derbyjester said:
Great write up from oddDog! People always seem quite negative in the build up the Derby every year, I dont understand it! This year is one of the most intriguing Derbys for years!

I was looking more into Magician since the weekend, a horse I previously discounted and now having looked further I still discount. There are two clear form lines through Magician, that dont look good.

1) Toronado beat Havana Gold this year by 4L. Magician beat HG by 6.5L. Dawn Approach routed Toronado by 7.5L, which leaves Magician with 5L to make upto Dawn Approach.
2) The horse that came 3L 2nd to Magician at the weekend, Gale Force Ten, beat Don't Bother Me by 3L this season. Don't bother me, was routed by 10L this season to both Dawn Approach and Battle of Marengo, confirming that Magician needs to make up 4 or 5L to Dawn Approach and also 4L to Battle of Marengo.
3) The third pointer for me, is in the last 12 years that I have gone to the Derby, no horse apart from his first run, has finished outside the top 3 in its races before the derby. Magician finished 7th in his final start of last season. In fact only one horse has finished outside the top 2(ignoring first start) and that was Pour Moi. The trends say that horses just dont finish 7th in their 4th outing and go on to win a Derby

I'm still happy with Battle of Marengo. Anti-post EW @ 8/1. He might not be the classiest, but more and more I think he looks nailed on for top3. Whether he wins or not, well depends on Dawn Approach staying or not, doesn't it!
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What did the trends say about Irish 2000 winners? How many of them came 7th in their final 2 year old appearance?
 
I don't know! Maybe not many! But its not just a trend, its a clear form line for me. Who did Magician beat in the Dee Stakes as well ? No-one. The horse that came second in the Dee Stakes went on to come 2nd in a two horse race at Goodwood!
 
The more I look at this the more I think the French and German horses are here to steal the prize.

Dawn Approach is a champion, but a champion miler. To me, he looks really unbalanced at times as well and I can see real issues when it gets into the business end at Epsom, as much as I hate to say it. I can't see him going in a straight line to be honest. In some ways I hope I am wrong and that he wins like a powerhouse, because we need stars.

However, I fear a foreign raid again and we have Ocovango who looks a real gritty horse who wants a good pace and will stay, and then this wonderful unknown factor from Germany, who made his opposition look like cannon-fodder the last twice. I take them bloody seriously when they come over here. They haven't had a Derby runner but they don't- like their Dutch counterparts- tilt at windmills. They know the Epsom Derby is a genuine Group 1 in world racing. I'm not sure what to make of its pedigree however. Ruler Of The World wears cheekpieces and that puts me off, otherwise I like his performances but not his form. Magician much the same- won an Irish 2000 Guineas off a perfect fast pace for him whilst the rest of the field were sightseeing ten lengths behind (<doh>). Battle Of Marengo is unspectacular but his form is solid enough in context and he does stay, he does battle, and he does win. Then again, he is built like a boat, which is worrying. Libertarian won the Dante pretty well in all fairness, but was terribly outpaced that day and it wasn't a vintage Dante.

I'm going to have to go each way on Galileo Rock at this rate. He really is your ideal Leger horse but in a race where I think the favourite will look like he is a stamina doubt on stilts, a plethora of Aiden O'Brien horses being dangled at you at any price by the Bookies, a **** Dante winner and a frog and a kraut, I'm left with little choice! <laugh> Joking aside though, when he hits top gear he is very impressive. The risk in backing him is, that he might not hit top gear until the start of Royal Ascot.

Seriously though- I see our European raiders go very close. German racing especially seems on the upgrade, and Fabre is a real master trainer.
 
Whilst I haven't been impressed visually I have to say that the Battle Of Marengo form looks solid to me. The step up to 12f will suit and I think he'll be considerably fitter for this race than he has been all season.
 
Think it is one of the most interesting renewals for years. Really looking forward to Saturday.
Just hope Channel 4 don't muck it up. I don't want to see the man on the horse with the mobile as the runners are going to post/in stalls......& I hope we see ALL the runners in the paddock & going down. Usually we see Bruce Forsyth or some cheeky chappie on the BBC, but I fear Channel 4 will be plucking B list celebrities at the expense of the racing.
 
OddDog said:
I think folk only see it as a poor Derby because there is no credible Newmarket challenger in the field - what does that say about the state of British racing then?

Certainly a good deal better than the race Camelot won last year - apart from the winner, the best subsequent rating achieved by that field was 115.
Click to expand...

Dexter said:
I don't think we can say it's a good derby before it's even been run..hopefully it is though.

Can't get excited about this years race for some reason.
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derbyjester said:
Great write up from oddDog! People always seem quite negative in the build up the Derby every year, I dont understand it! This year is one of the most intriguing Derbys for years!
Click to expand...

Every year the Derby is described as poor or ordinary or sub-standard before it is actually run.

If half a dozen horses flash past the winning post within a length of each other, we will then probably all be saying that it was a moderate race and there was no star performer. If something wins by six lengths in a common canter, we will then all be extolling it as the next great champion and be grumbling because we missed the 20/1 for the Arc and it is now the 3/1 favourite.

I will not be having a bet myself but I hope it turns out to be a good race with a good winner and no sob stories.
 
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