The Epsom Derby

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He didn't listen to Michael Stoute over Ajdal,as I have just pointed out,and Henry Cecil over a certain high class middle distance filly.

Listening skills aren't really high on the curriculum in the Middle Eastern dictator developement college workshops that SM attended.

But as long as you're sure then thats good enough for me ;)
 
Dexter said:
He didn't listen to Michael Stoute over Ajdal,as I have just pointed out,and Henry Cecil over a certain high class middle distance filly.

Listening skills aren't really high on the curriculum in the Middle Eastern dictator developement college workshops that SM attended.

But as long as you're sure then thats good enough for me ;)
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They thought Dubai Millenium was invincible aswell, The only time that horse had his colours lowered was at Epsom...

A powerhouse of a horse with alot of speed, Seems pretty similar to the favourite this weekend
 
TopClass said:
The more I look at this the more I think the French and German horses are here to steal the prize.

Dawn Approach is a champion, but a champion miler. To me, he looks really unbalanced at times as well and I can see real issues when it gets into the business end at Epsom, as much as I hate to say it. I can't see him going in a straight line to be honest. In some ways I hope I am wrong and that he wins like a powerhouse, because we need stars.

However, I fear a foreign raid again and we have Ocovango who looks a real gritty horse who wants a good pace and will stay, and then this wonderful unknown factor from Germany, who made his opposition look like cannon-fodder the last twice. I take them bloody seriously when they come over here. They haven't had a Derby runner but they don't- like their Dutch counterparts- tilt at windmills. They know the Epsom Derby is a genuine Group 1 in world racing. I'm not sure what to make of its pedigree however. Ruler Of The World wears cheekpieces and that puts me off, otherwise I like his performances but not his form. Magician much the same- won an Irish 2000 Guineas off a perfect fast pace for him whilst the rest of the field were sightseeing ten lengths behind (<doh>). Battle Of Marengo is unspectacular but his form is solid enough in context and he does stay, he does battle, and he does win. Then again, he is built like a boat, which is worrying. Libertarian won the Dante pretty well in all fairness, but was terribly outpaced that day and it wasn't a vintage Dante.

I'm going to have to go each way on Galileo Rock at this rate. He really is your ideal Leger horse but in a race where I think the favourite will look like he is a stamina doubt on stilts, a plethora of Aiden O'Brien horses being dangled at you at any price by the Bookies, a **** Dante winner and a frog and a kraut, I'm left with little choice! <laugh> Joking aside though, when he hits top gear he is very impressive. The risk in backing him is, that he might not hit top gear until the start of Royal Ascot.

Seriously though- I see our European raiders go very close. German racing especially seems on the upgrade, and Fabre is a real master trainer.
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I'm really glad someone has mentioned Galileo Rock have been looking at this horse and thinking at that price it has to be worth an EW bet but wasn't getting a mention against the so called top horses. Reading this post had definitely made my mind up and I'll be backing it.
 
Read an amazing fact in &#8216;The Weekender&#8217; earlier in the week re runners in the Derby from across The Channel. Andre Fabre raiders apart there have been just 2 French runners in the race in the past 20 years! Why do our Gallic chums go elsewhere?!? Answers on a postcard please to the usual address.

The front 2 in the market staring to drift slightly &#8211; 5/4 Dawn Approach, 6/1 Battle of Merengo.
 
They took Dawn Approach on at Newmarket as well. 2/1 i recall. There's more reason to try to get him beat this time I suppose. He could touch 6/4 tomorrow if the bookies get a result today on the Oaks.
 
smokethedeadbadger said:
I'm really glad someone has mentioned Galileo Rock have been looking at this horse and thinking at that price it has to be worth an EW bet but wasn't getting a mention against the so called top horses. Reading this post had definitely made my mind up and I'll be backing it.
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I have taken some of the 40/1 ew on Galileo Rock- aslong it is a strong pace- he has definate place claims as he will easily get the distance but if it turns into a sprint at the end I fear for him
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Read an amazing fact in &#8216;The Weekender&#8217; earlier in the week re runners in the Derby from across The Channel. Andre Fabre raiders apart there have been just 2 French runners in the race in the past 20 years! Why do our Gallic chums go elsewhere?!? Answers on a postcard please to the usual address.
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The Derby is rarely run at a married man&#8217;s gallop like most French races and there is a strong suspicion that the purse for the Prix Du Jockey Club is more than that on offer at Epsom.

The Derby does not mean as much to them as we call the Prix Du Jockey Club the French Derby not them.

Another good reason for the lack of French runners would be the virtual boycott of our racing during that period by the Aga Khan after the disqualification of 1989 Oaks winner Aliysa.
 
Quite so QM..not sure the Aga Khan is entirely appreciative of the scatter gun breeding approach of the ghastly one and the way he has marginalised and contaminated the gene pool...be it by hook or by...well...
 
Ok, I've been persuaded that Dawn Approach won't stay. Not that I know a damn thing about breeding, but those who really should do seem certain he'll sag like a deflated balloon 2 from home. Then this this Equinome genetics baloney which appears to use a combination of science, magic and cobblers to comprehensively define him as a miler. So the best horse in the race doesn't stay, but that doesn't give me the confidence to lay him in the place market.

No ****ing idea who wins, not a scooby. Not a Danny LaRue even. Battle of Marengo hasn't looked all that special to me, in fact of the Coolmoore runners I'd far rather be with Ruler Of the World, who has the assistance of the best jockey in the world, even if he isn't the best horse. It's all guesswork really. The Fabre horse has to be frespected blah, blah, blah.

Actually, I hope Dawn Approach does win. But I won't be on.

Good luck anyone having a bet - and it's The Derby, you really do have to bet.
 
Gladness said:
There you are horse with sprinter dam can't stay a Derby. Forget "science" read a pedigree.
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Lol, I suggest you re watch the race if your reasoning for his defeat was that he didnt stay. He didnt settle simple as that. It was obvious he couldn't win the race after about 3 furlongs with the way he was pulling, nothing to do with wether he stayed or not :biggrin:
 
Disappointing that Dawn Approach was so unsettled and pulled like a train in the first half mile. We will never really know whether or not he could stay the distance or not. I can't see him racing over 12 furlongs again.
 
He won't Janabelle. Makes one wonder just how good New Approach was, as he acted similarly in his Derby yet still won.
 
And indeed how good HTN was who easily beat NA twice..the second time was a rout...great miler he was.

Todays winner was a half brother to DOM,who also easily brushed aside NA...superior family it would seem after the blow out of DA today.
 
Typical: Pick the Derby winner and no bet the race...

Excellent tactics by the Ballydoyle clan: Run two pacemakers, have neither of them set the pace and watch the favourite throw his chance away long before his stamina became an issue. Stopwatch enthusiasts will already have erased the race from their notebook.

Obviously the winner has a name to live up to but at the moment he is Ruler Of The World. No miles on the clock and he has ended the Chester Vase hoodoo. Could be anything or it could be a moderate year.

I love the fact that within a minute of the runner up crossing the line, &#8220;Town Moor&#8221; had already been mentioned in association with its name (i.e. slow plodder). Anybody would think that John Gosden trained it.

Punters who took the 66/1 before the race that Dawn Approach would finish last must be really livid with that donkey that was eased up more than the Guineas winner.
 
Gladness said:
There you are horse with sprinter dam can't stay a Derby. Forget "science" read a pedigree.
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There was some Irish clever devil on the TV today who had gone back three generations into the distaff pedigree and found a middle distance mare so Dawn Approach was going to stay. He sounded like an idiot and now it is official. Pardon me for gloating.

King Shergar said:
Lol, I suggest you re watch the race if your reasoning for his defeat was that he didnt stay. He didnt settle simple as that. It was obvious he couldn't win the race after about 3 furlongs with the way he was pulling, nothing to do with wether he stayed or not :biggrin:
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When the favourite went to the front at Tattenham Corner it was because Manning had given up trying to restrain him and the writing was already on the wall; that is true. With three furlongs to go, he hit the wall as Battle Of Marengo went back to the lead so Manning dropped his hands. If you can persuade them to run him over a mile and a half again, I will stand your bet.
 
Dexter said:
And indeed how good HTN was who easily beat NA twice..the second time was a rout...great miler he was.

Todays winner was a half brother to DOM,who also easily brushed aside NA...superior family it would seem after the blow out of DA today.
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I think you'll find the scores were 2-2 between NA and HTN, over distances more suitable to HTN. There have been 4 classics this year, and NA has sired the winners of 2 of them. So your superior family comment is pretty daft :biggrin:
 
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