Im wondering when the moneys going to start coming for ruler of the world. Worryingly, it hasnt yet, tho theyv had my 10 bob
Tips for Ruler of the World throughout ‘The Weekender’ today. ‘King’ Kieren says he’s ‘the each-way value’ whilst the ‘dosage expert’ says the old boy ‘can rule’ as he will be perfectly suited by the trip as a result of him being by Galileo and out of a Kingmambo mare. The market really does seem to have found its constant at the moment with very little movement currently. There also seems to be very little interest in the race from the media at the moment apart from the ridiculous aside as to whether or not the Dettori creature will ride one of the outsiders!
I don't think it will unless J O'B or R Moore choose it which is doubtful, I'm on at 14's and not really bothered what happens to it's price now anyway.
Using those form lines would seem to put Battle of Marengo in with a good chance against Dawn Approach, However he looks no more likely to stay than DA.
biggest nightmare of a Derby ive ever seen in my short career, Dawn Approach will end up winning half the track after all this ****, he is the best horse in the race by a country mile and thats a fact.
Ryan Moore booked to ride Ruler of the World and Richard Hughes is gonna be on Mars. No Dettori booking for O'Brien. I continue to be interested in Mars and with Hughes on board Im becoming even more interested.. Magician is out of the Derby........
The thing that puts me off with Mars is that whilst he stayed on steadily in the Guineas, he was nabbed for 5th by Cristoforo Colombo, which worries me with regards to stamina. Mars is unexposed though so we will know more about him in the middle distance pecking order after Saturday, but I just can't be having him. Ruler Of The World will make a bold bid as he quickens and stays. Wonder if there are one or two slightly ahead of him though? those cheekpieces put me off!
A DOZEN declared for the big race. Dawn Approach, Ocavango, Chopin, Libertarian, Galileo Rock, Mr O’Brien’s 5 (Battle of Marengo, Ruler of the World, Mars, Festive Cheer and Flying The Flag) and the outsiders Mirsaale and Ocean Applause.
Libertarian might be the dark horse, certainly a good each way prospect. At the moment we really don't know about the New Approachs' staying power, but the horse has a nice bit of stamina through the distaff side. Perhaps in time he will develop into a nice St Leger type. Great to see a Yorkshire trained horse in the mix. The Ballydoyle scattergun approach has shades of Sea The Stars Derby about it, except they don't even have a G1 winner in the field (unlike Fame And Glory was at the time). Shame Kingsbarns is not there to make it a real stamina test. BOM is just a last minute sub, and probably over-hyped. The fact the stable seems to rate him over the more visually impressive ROTW suggests that the former works better at home than the latter. Strange to think back to when Mars made hid debut on the all weather at Dundalk and he was being touted as the next big thing. Now almost an also-ran. I wonder why he was at one time thought to be so great? The German and French horses are also interesting, with little to gauge their form by their beaten horses. Chopin is by a unknown German miler but with a bit of stamina through Galileo on the dam's side, but more 8-10f speed through Gulch. The pedigree does not scream 12f, but no less (in fact probably more) so than the principals DA/BOM. He had a couple of wide margin successes in Germany, but none of the horses he has beaten have done anything of note, so the form figures might flatter. Ocovango has a similar stamina profile to Shirocco, but a little less on the dam side. Shirocco won on the derby course in the Coronation Cup so that gives us some (little) idea of how a Monsun might handle the track/distance. Obviously a completely different style to the German horse, his winning margins have been small after having made all or been prominent, but he beat a smart looking horse in Wire To Wire on his last G3 run. Unlike STS, DA does not have guaranteed stamina on either side. It is funny to think we ever doubted STS staying power now considering the stout German dam side and the other Derby winner in the family! DA has no such refuge. New Approach is as yet an unknown quantity for 12f progeny, and the sire himself has a fair bit of speed through his dam Park Express. Although on the face of it the dam is pure speed, she does have some stamina through the sire of her dam Pleasant Colony. Overall, I would be surprised if DA stayed. I would imagine the jockey will hide him out the back and try to protect him as long as possible, because he might be treading water at the furlong pole and vulnerable to a something staying on late. Anyway, that's my take on things. Sorry for it being so long!
Got a little feeling for a very big outsider in the Epsom Derby Trial winner Mirsaale. Not seeing he'll win of course but he's by Sir Percy out of a mare that ran some very good races at around listed/G3 quality over trips 10F upwards (rated 102 at the end of her career). The Dam's stamina influence (by Sadler's Wells) means he'll certainly stay, might be better over much further, and has some course form at least. I've seen a lot worse 100/1 shots! Probably doesn't have the class but might sneak a 25/1 place!
Global Bang (finished second to Chopin) in the German G3, finished second in the German 2000 guineas! Not great form, but a damn site better than Ruler Of The World's form, which to say the least is, minging.
Here's a poser for you all, did Bolger think he had a horse that would stay the Derby trip when he debuted him over 5F at the Curragh, and won the Coventry at Ascot? The answer is no - and for the life of me I can't imagine he's going to get 12F in a horsebox, as the saying goes!
He's only running in the Derby because Sheikh Mo is desperate to win the race. Sheikh Mo ran Ajdal in the Derby who,not surprisingly,was well beaten.His next two runs were victories in the July Cup over 6f and the Nunthorpe over 5f!!..Obsession overriding common sense. Dawn Approach is a little less stark than that example but I'm pretty sure he wouldn't be going to Epsom if still owned exclusively by Jim Bolger,who has just made a Sussex Stakes entry for the horse. Fascinating to see if he stays.
Being sired by Galileo I am expecting some considerable improvement from Mars stepping up in trip to 12f. It also should be noted that he's related in part to the great Frankel. Overall beautifully bred and i cant get out of my head the fact that he was being touted as a derby favourite even before stepping on to a racecourse. He must have shown something special at home and I believe the horse will be suited to the derby much more than the guineas where it seemed the horse was just pushed out and finished a respectable 6th. Its also a little strange that O'Brien has come out and said he's not sure if he is more of a derby than guineas horse .. With Richard Hughes tasting recent classic success in England I am of the opinion he will be in the shake up with Mars. I am expecting Dawn Approach to win but at 14/1 about Mars (who knows maybe 16s will be around on the day) its a cracking each way bet. In a race where i dont see real strong contenders other than the favourite its a bet to be had for sure and I'll be doing that come the day.
Mars needs the quicker ground but I'm on and hope he wins coming from the clouds to nail battle of Marengo with ocovango in third
I'm sure if Bolger felt strongly that the horse wouldn't stay, then Sheik Mo would take his advice. After all Bolger still owns 49% and Sheik Mo would listen to a trainer as skilled as Bolger. The soft ground is a concern however, as it'll make things an even bigger test of stamina. Hopefully we'll see atleast good ground on the day, and I'm confident DA will do the business
Intresting race, As I think the favourite is a certainty to be outstayed. Im not certain a horse of his stature will enjoy Epsom either. Its just what is going to go past him 2 furlongs from home... I think you could have worse bets than Ocovango at 7/1 and Ruler of the World at 8/1. Both are certain to get the trip on pedigree and past performances. Both appeal value wise aswell.
