The Epsom Derby
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Pity the George Sand joke fell on stony (or possibly sandy) ground, but never mind. As I was saying......
....my Derby masterplan has been to lay Dawn Approach, which I've been doing in instalments over the past couple of weeks, and on a steeper curve since he tightened up when Telescope defected. I'm sure he's a good horse, a very good miler, and maybe a champion at 10f. But if you examine what's actually happened.....he's won a 2000G well, but the second was a 150-1 shot on which Spencer picked the best ground, the running-on third couldn't get into the first six today in an Irish 2000G strolled by (probably) a 10f horse in Magician, and Toronado didn't turn up.
If you add to the fragility of the 2000G form the fact that the weather forecast for Epsom (I live about four miles away) from Monday night onwards appears to be wall-to-wall rain, you do wonder if it's wise to bet odds-on Dawn Approach. I'm not saying he can't/won't win it, but if you strip away the Bolger hype and the media hysteria, wouldn't you - really, truly - want 9/4 before you backed it for proper money ?
....my Derby masterplan has been to lay Dawn Approach, which I've been doing in instalments over the past couple of weeks, and on a steeper curve since he tightened up when Telescope defected. I'm sure he's a good horse, a very good miler, and maybe a champion at 10f. But if you examine what's actually happened.....he's won a 2000G well, but the second was a 150-1 shot on which Spencer picked the best ground, the running-on third couldn't get into the first six today in an Irish 2000G strolled by (probably) a 10f horse in Magician, and Toronado didn't turn up.
If you add to the fragility of the 2000G form the fact that the weather forecast for Epsom (I live about four miles away) from Monday night onwards appears to be wall-to-wall rain, you do wonder if it's wise to bet odds-on Dawn Approach. I'm not saying he can't/won't win it, but if you strip away the Bolger hype and the media hysteria, wouldn't you - really, truly - want 9/4 before you backed it for proper money ?
I went in the local Ladbrokes for a bet on the Irish 2000 Guineas but the punters had clearly reached the same conclusion as me: the Newmarket third Van Der Neer was the best form in the race whilst morning favourite Magician was a Group 3 winning middle distance horse dropping back to a mile. So I did not have a bet at 5/2.
Magician won what may turn out to be a very moderate race (Trading Leather effectively a pacemaker) whilst the Newmarket form was not boosted by the complete no show from the favourite.
The Ladbrokes commentator then told punters that Magician was still in the Derby in two weeks. With such misinformation Ladbrokes customers have little chance as the Derby is next Saturday (one week). Perhaps Ladbrokes wanted to entice in a few suckers before O’Brien pulls the horse.
It will be interesting to see which of the Ballydoyle inmates are left in the race on Monday, with the assumption that Chopin will be supplemented into the race by his new connections.
Dawn Approach is looking like the worst odds-on favourite for the Derby since Pennekamp. The fewer opponents that show up on the day, the better his chances of sneaking the race. I am expecting that he will be held up at the back and will attempt to do a Pour Moi. It may end up more like it did when Greville Starkey did the same on Dancing Brave.
Good master plan. I would not touch Dawn Approach at any price because he will not stay even if it is like tarmac. I know I am setting myself up for a lot of abuse if he wins next Saturday but that is my opinion.
Magician won what may turn out to be a very moderate race (Trading Leather effectively a pacemaker) whilst the Newmarket form was not boosted by the complete no show from the favourite.
The Ladbrokes commentator then told punters that Magician was still in the Derby in two weeks. With such misinformation Ladbrokes customers have little chance as the Derby is next Saturday (one week). Perhaps Ladbrokes wanted to entice in a few suckers before O’Brien pulls the horse.
It will be interesting to see which of the Ballydoyle inmates are left in the race on Monday, with the assumption that Chopin will be supplemented into the race by his new connections.
Dawn Approach is looking like the worst odds-on favourite for the Derby since Pennekamp. The fewer opponents that show up on the day, the better his chances of sneaking the race. I am expecting that he will be held up at the back and will attempt to do a Pour Moi. It may end up more like it did when Greville Starkey did the same on Dancing Brave.
Good master plan. I would not touch Dawn Approach at any price because he will not stay even if it is like tarmac. I know I am setting myself up for a lot of abuse if he wins next Saturday but that is my opinion.
'Strip away the Bolger hype' ???
Really??! You sure you're not getting him mixed up with O'Brien?!!
Who beats Dawn Approach by the way lads?!
Really??! You sure you're not getting him mixed up with O'Brien?!!
Who beats Dawn Approach by the way lads?!
I have been looking at the breeding of winners of the Derby to see if any are out of sprinter bred mares. The results are interesting. If he wins next Saturday, Dawn Approach will be the first horse bred in such a way. Horses from sprinting sires have won: Hard Ridden 1958, Dr Devious 1992, but these were out of staying mares.
There have been dams who have fast blood in their pedigrees; the Derby winners bred this way have been: Mahmoud 1936, out of Mah Mahal from sprinter Mumtaz Mahal, but Mah Mahal was by Gaisborough . Grundy 1975 was by a 10 furlong horse out of a mare with Princely Gift in her pedigree, but she was sired by ultra stamina influence Wordon II. Reference Point's dam was by Habitat & has Grey Sovereign in there, but also strong stamina influences Busted & Carracalla.
Horses bred the other what around have been placed, but never first past the post. Can Dawn Approach do it?
There have been dams who have fast blood in their pedigrees; the Derby winners bred this way have been: Mahmoud 1936, out of Mah Mahal from sprinter Mumtaz Mahal, but Mah Mahal was by Gaisborough . Grundy 1975 was by a 10 furlong horse out of a mare with Princely Gift in her pedigree, but she was sired by ultra stamina influence Wordon II. Reference Point's dam was by Habitat & has Grey Sovereign in there, but also strong stamina influences Busted & Carracalla.
Horses bred the other what around have been placed, but never first past the post. Can Dawn Approach do it?
Hope he wins, because if he does he will be an exceptional horse, proving like buses, none for a while, then one after another. It isn't his fault Godolphin bought him.
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I had a look at Chopin and he looks pretty decent, I think he will handle the track well and the step up in trip should suit, im not reading too much into the form with the horse he beat finishing second in the German Guineas, Tawhid was 3rd just behind them and he was beaten about 50 lengths by Toronado. So he has to step up again but it appears to be a weak Derby and he deserves his chance.
I still cant believe Libertarian was 25/1 after the Dante, absolutely insane price, he is still much bigger than he should be, If he was trained by Stoute or something he would be well fancied after winning the strongest trial and looking like he can only improve for the step up to 1m4.
I still cant believe Libertarian was 25/1 after the Dante, absolutely insane price, he is still much bigger than he should be, If he was trained by Stoute or something he would be well fancied after winning the strongest trial and looking like he can only improve for the step up to 1m4.
I like Galelio Rock at 40/1 e/w will definitely get the distance and aslong as it doesnt end up in a sprint I can see him running in to the placings!
My bookmaker has some interesting specials on the Derby and one has really caught my eye:
Ocavango or Chopin to win the Derby - 9/2 (if one is a non-runner the bet stands, if both NR the bet is void)
I'm quite tempted by this having watched the Breakfast with the stars coverage. If Dawn Approach doesn't stay I strongly fancy one of this pair to win it.
Thoughts??
Ocavango or Chopin to win the Derby - 9/2 (if one is a non-runner the bet stands, if both NR the bet is void)
I'm quite tempted by this having watched the Breakfast with the stars coverage. If Dawn Approach doesn't stay I strongly fancy one of this pair to win it.
Thoughts??
True Bob - I never looked at their individual prices, thought they were shorter than that
Better off just dutching them then. I think I'm coming down in favour of the French horse though, but I would kick myself if the German horse won and I didn't back it.
I'd be more in favour of the French horse as well but don't fancy either to be honest.
Beginning to doubt how good Dawn Approach actually is though now. I thought he was Sea The Stars good a few weeks ago but the more I look the more I think he's Excelebration good.
He's got to be taken on in the Derby. Everything in the field is an each way price anyway so if he turns out to get the trip and is Sea The Stars good there's still a return available if you can choose the right nag to follow him home.
For me, Battle of Marengo is the horse I want to keep on side. I know most disagree but I really like him.
Beginning to doubt how good Dawn Approach actually is though now. I thought he was Sea The Stars good a few weeks ago but the more I look the more I think he's Excelebration good.
He's got to be taken on in the Derby. Everything in the field is an each way price anyway so if he turns out to get the trip and is Sea The Stars good there's still a return available if you can choose the right nag to follow him home.
For me, Battle of Marengo is the horse I want to keep on side. I know most disagree but I really like him.