The 2023 Epsom Derby

[Ron]

At the latest declaration on Friday, just 21 stood their ground

Remaining entries here

Please post your views on any of the runners' chances

Military Order, provided the ground is not soft. I'm not convinced he would appreciate that, purely on the grounds that he was a good 4 seconds slower than Gather Ye Rosebuds when she skated up by 9.5l on the same Newbury card (soft). Clearly stays 12f on decent ground, clocking a decent time in the Derby trial on Lingfield Polytrack, lovely pedigree (Frankel out of a Dubawi mare), top trainer and jockey. Appleby's sole entry. What's not to like, other than the price

Arrest. Another Frankel colt. Has won over 12f on soft but that was on a sharp flat track, in a very slow time. Something had to come first and the second was well beaten by Soul Sister in the Musidora. He can only beat what turns up and he did it comfortably so not sure what to make of that. He should stay 12f on decent ground but I suspect less likely so as Military Order

Auguste Rodin. I couldn't fancy him for the 2000 Guineas and felt he was a silly price at 11/4 for the Derby. Still looking far too short at 9/2 for one that has not proved himself over 12f, let alone on a decent surface. His price is based purely on AOB's faith in him. He may be proved right but why has he left another 7 in

The Foxes. Won the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes last year but that was a muddling race run at a very slow pace with just over a length separating the 4 runners. 2 of those re-oppose (at 14/1 and 66/1). He won the Dante, in a good time, but it would not be difficult to argue that either White Birch or Passenger, or both of those could easily reverse placings next time. None of those have proved they can stay 12f and neither are they certain to. I'm not convinced they are good enough in any case

Sprewell. Nothing in the immediate pedigree to suggest he will be suited by 12f

Dubai Mile. Beat Arrest a nk in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) over 10 f heavy, getting the better of him close home, suggesting (as does his pedigree) that he would be well suited to a step up to 12f. He was beaten 0.5l by The Foxes in that G2 Royal Lodge Stakes last year, but I have already dismissed that race as being a bit of a farcical affair. Ran a credible Derby trial when 5th, beaten 5.25l in the 2000 Gns. At 14/1 he looks better value than any of those above (except Military Order)

Bedtime, so to be continued

 

[QuarterMoonII]

I was annoyed that they switched the Lingfield Derby Trial to the kitty litter but they did it because the soft ground on the turf course meant they only got a handful of entries for both their trials (not early closing as only Listed status these days). When they switched them they got a much better entry for the Oaks Trial when they re-opened the entries. I really liked Military Order’s win, albeit not on turf, and he should handle Epsom (Lingfield being the course most like it). It had shortened to 6/1 second favourite for the Derby before that run because of comments by the trainer when questioned at Chester by Matt Chapman, so shortened to favourite with the win.

The jury is very much out on the Dante as there were a whole host of positives and negatives from the way that the race was run. I like The Foxes and I think he should run well at Epsom and the most notable one from the race with the Derby in mind was White Birch as I think that, although he is a single figure price, Passenger will not show up.

If it comes up bottomless, then Arrest will run. A friend of mine backed him ante post before he won at Chester but I do not want to know it on anything that does not include ‘soft’ or ‘heavy’ in the going. When it was touched off by Dubai Mile at Saint Cloud, Aidan O’Brien’s Adelaide Road was six lengths third. At Chester, over an extra half a mile, Adelaide Road was six-and-a-half lengths second.

I note that in the ante post betting, William Hill are much the longest about Arrest at 15/2 and they are one of the quartet offering Dubai Mile at 16/1, which would be the more sensible each way play as he looks like he wants a trip, has stamina in his pedigree but has done all his winning on flat tracks.

I still do not want Auguste Rodin. If it does a half decent piece of work, Aidan O’Blarney’s horse might still end up favourite on the day because the bookies still have all those ante post liabilities so it will not take much money to shorten the price.

Other than White Birch, the other one I would be looking at each way would be Waipiro, as Ed Walker’s charge chased home Military Order at Lingfield and has only had three races.

 

[Ron]

At the latest declaration on Friday, just 21 stood their ground

Remaining entries here

Please post your views on any of the runners' chances

Military Order, provided the ground is not soft. I'm not convinced he would appreciate that, purely on the grounds that he was a good 4 seconds slower than Gather Ye Rosebuds when she skated up by 9.5l on the same Newbury card (soft). Clearly stays 12f on decent ground, clocking a decent time in the Derby trial on Lingfield Polytrack, lovely pedigree (Frankel out of a Dubawi mare), top trainer and jockey. Appleby's sole entry. What's not to like, other than the price

Arrest. Another Frankel colt. Has won over 12f on soft but that was on a sharp flat track, in a very slow time. Something had to come first and the second was well beaten by Soul Sister in the Musidora. He can only beat what turns up and he did it comfortably so not sure what to make of that. He should stay 12f on decent ground but I suspect less likely so as Military Order

Auguste Rodin. I couldn't fancy him for the 2000 Guineas and felt he was a silly price at 11/4 for the Derby. Still looking far too short at 9/2 for one that has not proved himself over 12f, let alone on a decent surface. His price is based purely on AOB's faith in him. He may be proved right but why has he left another 7 in

The Foxes. Won the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes last year but that was a muddling race run at a very slow pace with just over a length separated the 4 runners. 2 of those re-oppose (at 14/1 and 66/1). He won the Dante, in a good time, but it would not be difficult to argue that either White Birch or Passenger, or both of those could easily reverse placings next time. None of those have proved they can stay 12f and neither are they certain to. I'm not convinced they are good enough in any case

Sprewell. Nothing in the immediate pedigree to suggest he will be suited by 12f

Dubai Mile. Beat Arrest a nk in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) over 10 f heavy, getting the better of him close home, suggesting (as does his pedigree) that he would be well suited to a step up to 12f. He was beaten 0.5l by The Foxes in that G2 Royal Lodge Stakes last year, but I have already dismissed that race as being a bit of a farcical affair. Ran a credible Derby trial when 5th, beaten 5.25l in the 2000 Gns. At 14/1 he looks better value than any of those above (except Military Order)

Bedtime, so to be continued

White Birch. Both sides of the pedigree do not inspire any confidence that he will stay 12f, even though he finished well in a fast run 10f

Waipiro. Based on the Derby trial he should be close to wherever Military Order finishes. Has had one race less than Military Order but has had an extra half a month to develop. By Derby winner Australia it is possible he could adapt to Epsom the better of the 2. Looks to have reasonable place claims at 16/1

Espionage. Has only run on soft or heavy and is well held by White Birch on that type of ground. Can't raise any enthusiasm for this one

Paddington. Hasn't ventured beyond a mile but his sire Siyouni was the sire of St Mark's Basilica and Sottsass and the dam was by Montjeu. Has won his 2 races this year with ease so there is hope he might stay the 12f. Very interesting contender at 20/1

San Antonio. Should have no problem with the distance, based on pedigree. Unbeaten this year, another AOB interesting contender at 25/1

Alder. Looks held by San Antonio

Artistic Star. Very interesting contender at 33/1. Unbeaten in 2. Sired by Galileo and out of Nechita by Fastnet Rock. Although Fastnet Rock was a champion sprinter, Nechita's dam was sired by the Arc winner Peintre Celebre

Gooloogong. Another interesting AOB entry by Australia at 33/1. May well have come into this unbeaten if not losing several lengths at the start on debut

Dear My Friend. Not good enough and won't stay

King of Steel. Won't stay and well held by Auguste Rodin

Modesty. Very interesting 50/1 shot were it a 10f race. Probably won't stay

Adelaide River. Well held by Arrest and Dubai Mile. Unlikely to stay

Covent Garden. Well exposed and well held by Dubai Mile; not good enough

Greenland. Based solely on his run in the Royal Lodge last year he has a lively outside chance. Won G3 at Saint-Cloud (1m2½f Very Soft). At 66/1 has a better chance than many of the shorter priced outsiders

Squire Danaghar. Lovely pedigree but well exposed and 100/1 looks to reflect his chance


CONCLUSION. AOB has several interesting entries and they won't all run so it will be interesting to see what he leaves in. Appleby has pinned his hopes on Military Order who appears to have the best credentials

Whatever AOB runs will probably be in the first 3. Waipiro shouldn't be far away and Dubai Mile should be thereabouts

Roll on the next declaration stage

 

[SwanHills]

Thanks to Ron and QM, very informative. I will probably stick with Military Order, impressive in the Lingfield trial, even though it was on the Polytrack surface. Will only change my mind if bog-like ground conditions turn-up on Derby day. Don't laugh, anything can happen with UK weather!

 

[Bustino74]

White Birch. Both sides of the pedigree do not inspire any confidence that he will stay 12f, even though he finished well in a fast run 10f



Roll on the next declaration stage

Surely Ulysses should get 12f winners?

 

[Ron]

Surely Ulysses should get 12f winners?

I knew you would say that . I remember Ulysses as a 10F horse, having come up a bit short over 12f. Yes, there is some stamina on the sire side, not a lot on the dam side. I got a bit carried away there, saying both sides

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Adelaide River. Well held by Arrest and Dubai Mile. Unlikely to stay

I misnamed Adelaide River as Adelaide Road in an earlier post.

He was third in the Chester Vase to Arrest over the Derby trip on soft ground, so I reckon he probably stays.

Will Arrest or Adelaide River show up at Epsom if the ground is not soft? My suspicion is that Adelaide River would not as Ballydoyle have plenty to choose from although Arrest is the only Gosden entry left (unless they have plans to supplement something) and did collar an Appleby favourite on the line on Good to Firm when losing his maiden tag.

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Looking at the market, right now, the 2 that I would say are 'value' would be White Birch (14/1) and Alder (33/1).

In my opinion the former ran a stormer of a trial in the Dante where plenty went wrong but he still got within a neck of the winner (who very much had the run of the race). Prior to that his win in the Ballysax had marked White Birch down as one very much on the upgrade. Personally I'd have no fears re him and 12 furlongs and would even mention White Birch and the St Leger in the same breath. The negative for me would be that the Dante did look a very hard race and it is only 16 days between that and Epsom.

Re Alder he won nicely on seasonal bow at Cork (readily beating recent Newbury victor Bertinelli). Was then 2nd in the Dee at Chester. Now then this race has, seemingly, been cast aside by pundits as some sort of terrible renewal and one to disregard as a classic clue. But why, I say why?!? Even more so than White Birch absolutely everything went wrong for Alder in this race but he still managed to finish on the heels of the winner (and over 2 lengths clear of the 3rd). I've no idea if connections will go to Epsom but I certainly don't feel this son of Australia deserves to be 33/1 right now.

But don't forget, people, the effect of the old draw. No-one will want to be drawn in the lowest 2 stalls!!! So far this century 46 horses have been and only one has won. And the 'curse' on box 1 predates the 21st century and some.

 

[Ron]

Looking at the market, right now, the 2 that I would say are 'value' would be White Birch (14/1) and Alder (33/1).

In my opinion the former ran a stormer of a trial in the Dante where plenty went wrong but he still got within a neck of the winner (who very much had the run of the race). Prior to that his win in the Ballysax had marked White Birch down as one very much on the upgrade. Personally I'd have no fears re him and 12 furlongs and would even mention White Birch and the St Leger in the same breath. The negative for me would be that the Dante did look a very hard race and it is only 16 days between that and Epsom.

Re Alder he won nicely on seasonal bow at Cork (readily beating recent Newbury victor Bertinelli). Was then 2nd in the Dee at Chester. Now then this race has, seemingly, been cast aside by pundits as some sort of terrible renewal and one to disregard as a classic clue. But why, I say why?!? Even more so than White Birch absolutely everything went wrong for Alder in this race but he still managed to finish on the heels of the winner (and over 2 lengths clear of the 3rd). I've no idea if connections will go to Epsom but I certainly don't feel this son of Australia deserves to be 33/1 right now.

But don't forget, people, the effect of the old draw. No-one will want to be drawn in the lowest 2 stalls!!! So far this century 46 horses have been and only one has won. And the 'curse' on box 1 predates the 21st century and some.

I'm sure you know my view on stats Barney. The important question relating to that stat is "How many horses drawn 1 and 2 were considered to have any chance, regardless of draw?" (ie what were their odds prior to the draw being known?). With that information, the stat would be more interesting

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

I'm sure you know my view on stats Barney. The important question relating to that stat is "How many horses drawn 1 and 2 were considered to have any chance, regardless of draw?" (ie what were their odds prior to the draw being known?). With that information, the stat would be more interesting

Looking at the last 10 Derby's it shows (obviously) 20 horses drawn 1 or 2. 19 out of these 20 were beaten. 8 out of these 19 beaten horses started at 9/1 or lower - 4/5, 100/30, 5/1, 7/1, 15/2, 8/1 (twice) and 9/1.

This period did produce one winner drawn 1 - Adayar, 16/1. That's the only one though drawn 1 or 2 this century. And as I say the 'curse' on box 1 predates the 21st century by some distance as well.

 

[Ron]

Looking at the last 10 Derby's it shows (obviously) 20 horses drawn 1 or 2. 19 out of these 20 were beaten. 8 out of these 19 beaten horses started at 9/1 or lower - 4/5, 100/30, 5/1, 7/1, 15/2, 8/1 (twice) and 9/1.

This period did produce one winner drawn 1 - Adayar, 16/1. That's the only one though drawn 1 or 2 this century. And as I say the 'curse' on box 1 predates the 21st century by some distance as well.

In the last 11 years, 6 favs have won and they were all drawn between 5 and 12. The others were drawn 7 - 14 (apart from Adayar)

 

[Ron]

Another question might be who was riding those in stalls 1 and 2

 

[QuarterMoonII]

Another question might be who was riding those in stalls 1 and 2

Last ten Derby runnings (draw, horse, jockey, trainer, SP, placing):

2022
1 Royal Patronage Jason Hart Charlie and Mark Johnston 28/1 sixteenth
2 Westover Rob Hornby Ralph Beckett 25/1 third
(12 Desert Crown Richard Kingscote Sir Michael Stoute 5/2 WON)
2021
1 Adayar Adam Kirby Charlie Appleby 16/1 WON
2 Third Realm Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian 14/1 fifth
2020
1 English King Frankie Dettori Ed Walker 5/1 fifth
2 Mogul Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 7/1 sixth
(12 Serpentine Emmet McNamara Aidan O’Brien 25/1 WON)
2019
1 Line Of Duty James Doyle Charlie Appleby 25/1 ninth
2 Telecaster Oisin Murphy Hughie Morrison 5/1 last
(7 Anthony Van Dyck Seamie Heffernan Aidan O’Brien 13/2 WON)
2018
1 Saxon Warrior Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 4/5 fourth
2 Knight To Behold Richard Kingscote Harry Dunlop 14/1 eleventh
(10 Masar William Buick Charlie Appleby 16/1 WON)
2017
1 Dubai Thunder Adam Kirby Saeed bin Suroor 9/1 eleventh
2 The Anvil Ana O’Brien Aidan O’Brien 66/1 seventeenth
(14 Wings Of Eagles P B Beggy Aidan O’Brien 40/1 WON)
2016
1 Mr Moonlight Magic Kevin Manning Jim Bolger 14/1 last
2 Humphrey Bogart Sean Levey Richard Hannon 25/1 fifth
(9 Harzand Pat Smullen Dermot Weld 13/2 WON)
2015
1 Epicuris Thierry Thulliez Mme Christiane Head 20/1 fifth
2 Hans Holbein Seamie Heffernan Aidan O’Brien 14/1 seventh
(8 Golden Horn Frankie Dettori John Gosden 13/8 WON)
2014
1 True Story Kieren Fallon Saeed bin Suroor 8/1 seventh
2 Kingston Hill Andrea Atzeni Roger Varian 15/2 second
(12 Australia Joseph O’Brien Aidan O’Brien 11/8 WON)
2013
1 Ocovango Pierre-Charles Boudot Andre Fabre 8/1 fifth
2 Festive Cheer Seamie Heffernan Aidan O’Brien 25/1 last
(10 Ruler Of The World Ryan Moore Aidan O’Brien 7/1 WON)

 

[Ron]

Thanks QM
I think it is safe to say that nearly all of those (non stayers/no hopers) wouldn't have got anywhere near winning, whatever their draw. The only one I could have fancied was English King. Some of them, I don't even recall running

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Thanks QM
I think it is safe to say that nearly all of those (non stayers/no hopers) wouldn't have got anywhere near winning, whatever their draw. The only one I could have fancied was English King. Some of them, I don't even recall running

Bit harsh, Ron. Those 19 included a 2,00 Guineas winner and animals who would go on to win Classics (Kingston Hill, St Leger and Westover, Irish Derby).

Plus Mogul was a dual Group / Grade 1 winner (won over £1.6 million in prizemoney in total). And the likes of Ocovango and Royal Patronage won Group 2's.

 

[Ron]

Mogul was beaten a total of nearly 50l by Pyledriver alone, in 3 races; once before the Derby and twice after
Saxon Warrior was never going to stay 12f. Was tried twice and failed
Ocovango never raced beyond 10.5f before the Derby and never won a race since
Royal Patronage only ran once at 12f, beaten 37l in the Derby. After the Derby won just one race, 8.5f on firm ground

Westover, I agree was harsh as he has run some good races in defeat as well as winning that Irish Derby; and Kingston Hill was also a bit harsh. But they did both finish 2nd in the Derby

Nevertheless, it will be interesting to see who gets those draws and to watch how they are ridden

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[SwanHills]

Read somewhere that Passenger will be supplemented? Is this correct?

Ah yes, half asleep as usual, just noticed it on ATR.

 

[Ron]

Military Order, provided the ground is not soft. I'm not convinced he would appreciate that, purely on the grounds that he was a good 4 seconds slower than Gather Ye Rosebuds when she skated up by 9.5l on the same Newbury card (soft). Clearly stays 12f on decent ground, clocking a decent time in the Derby trial on Lingfield Polytrack, lovely pedigree (Frankel out of a Dubawi mare), top trainer and jockey. Appleby's sole entry. What's not to like, other than the price

Arrest. Another Frankel colt. Has won over 12f on soft but that was on a sharp flat track, in a very slow time. Something had to come first and the second was well beaten by Soul Sister in the Musidora. He can only beat what turns up and he did it comfortably so not sure what to make of that. He should stay 12f on decent ground but I suspect less likely so as Military Order

Auguste Rodin. I couldn't fancy him for the 2000 Guineas and felt he was a silly price at 11/4 for the Derby. Still looking far too short at 9/2 for one that has not proved himself over 12f, let alone on a decent surface. His price is based purely on AOB's faith in him. He may be proved right but why has he left another 7 in

The Foxes. Won the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes last year but that was a muddling race run at a very slow pace with just over a length separating the 4 runners. 2 of those re-oppose (at 14/1 and 66/1). He won the Dante, in a good time, but it would not be difficult to argue that either White Birch or Passenger, or both of those could easily reverse placings next time. None of those have proved they can stay 12f and neither are they certain to. I'm not convinced they are good enough in any case

Sprewell. Nothing in the immediate pedigree to suggest he will be suited by 12f

Dubai Mile. Beat Arrest a nk in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud (Group 1) over 10 f heavy, getting the better of him close home, suggesting (as does his pedigree) that he would be well suited to a step up to 12f. He was beaten 0.5l by The Foxes in that G2 Royal Lodge Stakes last year, but I have already dismissed that race as being a bit of a farcical affair. Ran a credible Derby trial when 5th, beaten 5.25l in the 2000 Gns. At 14/1 he looks better value than any of those above (except Military Order)

White Birch. Both sides of the pedigree do not inspire any confidence that he will stay 12f, even though he finished well in a fast run 10f

Waipiro. Based on the Derby trial he should be close to wherever Military Order finishes. Has had one race less than Military Order but has had an extra half a month to develop. By Derby winner Australia it is possible he could adapt to Epsom the better of the 2. Looks to have reasonable place claims at 16/1

Espionage. Has only run on soft or heavy and is well held by White Birch on that type of ground. Can't raise any enthusiasm for this one

Paddington. Hasn't ventured beyond a mile but his sire Siyouni was the sire of St Mark's Basilica and Sottsass and the dam was by Montjeu. Has won his 2 races this year with ease so there is hope he might stay the 12f. Very interesting contender at 20/1

San Antonio. Should have no problem with the distance, based on pedigree. Unbeaten this year, another AOB interesting contender at 25/1

Alder. Looks held by San Antonio

Artistic Star. Very interesting contender at 33/1. Unbeaten in 2. Sired by Galileo and out of Nechita by Fastnet Rock. Although Fastnet Rock was a champion sprinter, Nechita's dam was sired by the Arc winner Peintre Celebre

Gooloogong. Another interesting AOB entry by Australia at 33/1. May well have come into this unbeaten if not losing several lengths at the start on debut

Dear My Friend. Not good enough and won't stay

King of Steel. Won't stay and well held by Auguste Rodin

Modesty. Very interesting 50/1 shot were it a 10f race. Probably won't stay

Adelaide River. Well held by Arrest and Dubai Mile. Unlikely to stay

Covent Garden. Well exposed and well held by Dubai Mile; not good enough

Greenland. Based solely on his run in the Royal Lodge last year he has a lively outside chance. Won G3 at Saint-Cloud (1m2½f Very Soft). At 66/1 has a better chance than many of the shorter priced outsiders

Squire Danaghar. Lovely pedigree but well exposed and 100/1 looks to reflect his chance


CONCLUSION. AOB has several interesting entries and they won't all run so it will be interesting to see what he leaves in. Appleby has pinned his hopes on Military Order who appears to have the best credentials

Whatever AOB runs will probably be in the first 3. Waipiro shouldn't be far away and Dubai Mile should be thereabouts

Roll on the next declaration stage

Just updated by leaving only the now 15 entries in bold. But we do have one supplemented, Passenger, making it 16 entries. I feel the same about Passenger as I do about White Birch so I can only assume he has been supplemented because the trainer believes this is a week Derby. In fact this does look a very weak Derby to me so I wouldn't be too surprised whatever won. Of what is left in, if I had to have a bet, it would be a fun bet only and I would have a few running for me, those being:
Military Order 10 points 4/1
Dubai Mile 1 point 14/1
Waipiro 1 point 20/1
San Antonio 1 point 33/1
Artistic Star 1 point 50/1

And if Auguste Rodin wins, AOB is a genius

 

[SwanHills]

Just updated by leaving only the now 15 entries in bold. But we do have one supplemented, Passenger, making it 16 entries. I feel the same about Passenger as I do about White Birch so I can only assume he has been supplemented because the trainer believes this is a week Derby. In fact this does look a very weak Derby to me so I wouldn't be too surprised whatever won. Of what is left in, if I had to have a bet, it would be a fun bet only and I would have a few running for me, those being:
Military Order 10 points 4/1
Dubai Mile 1 point 14/1
Waipiro 1 point 20/1
San Antonio 1 point 33/1
Artistic Star 1 point 50/1
And if Auguste Rodin wins, AOB is a genius

Yes, it does look a very weak Derby, and tthere's no doubt that is exactly what Sir Michael Stoute and connections think too. Well worth supplementing the colt.

(Very interesting thread, thanks again to Ron, QMII, Sir Barney, et al, for the hard work. Think I'll be on Passenger and Military Order with a cheeky Rev.Forecast. Well, you never know!)

 

[Bustino74]

I've always been a great fan of the 2000G as a trial for the Derby. This year it has been no use at all. Not the first time and in cases like this the Dante usually throws up something. So my inclination at the moment is that The Foxes offers the best option for a Derby winner. He has done little wrong and travels like a class horse. I can't believe this will be a scalded cat Derby so the key feature will be can the horse act on the course. You have to take that as it comes. The Foxes is not an ungainly colt, so may be suited to Epsom, but until they've tried it you never know.
Passenger has the unraced 2yo jinx against him. So I pass over him. If there is an EW bet I think it may be Waipiro..