I always used to have a relatively simple method of picking Classic winners… On the basis that a Classic winner is usually the best of his/her generation (at least on the day of the race), you would expect the horse to go to post either unbeaten or with only one loss- probably first time out. After all, how could a horse become the best by losing several races prior to Newmarket or Epsom? This method seemed to work particularly well for the Guineas races- where unforeseen improvement was less likely than for later Classics. I remember backing Royal Palace for both the Guineas and Derby. . Although beaten first time out , he won all his other races up to Epsom. However, nowadays that method can go haywire…How on earth could you back say Serpentine or Wings of Eagles to win the Derby? This year, I can’t see an outstanding candidate. I’d always prefer a Dante winner to the winner of Lingfield’s trial ie. The Foxes over Military Order, but form lines are so closely matched that it appears a poor renewal. And the Irish 2000 Guineas did nothing to enhance our Classic form lines. Personally I think Charlie Johnstone’s Dubai Mile will make a strong bid from the front but, like all the others, his form is not outstanding.
I have my ante-post on ARREST but sadly I think his chance is slipping away with every drying minute that passes. The Irish Derby may well be his moment to shine, though how Juddmonte will manage 2 Irish Derby winning Frankel colts, not to mention Chaldean, as stallion prospects I don't know. Best guess is that at least one will be sold to Japan a la Workforce and Shiskin. Obviously I'd like to see Military Order as the alternative winner. I used to know an elderly lady, sadly no longer with us, whose Derby betting tactic was to put two horses with the same first letter into a reverse exacta. It paid off well for her with Galileo/Golan and High Chaparral/Hawk Wing and there are plenty of opportunities for similar this year!
Just on a bloodstock note, it's an amazing statistic to realise that only 2 of the 14 runners are free of Galileo blood - Dubai Mile and King of Steel, though the former has Sadler's Wells line in him through his dam sire High Chaparral! 1 son of Galileo 8 sire line grandsons (2 x Australia, 2 x Churchill, 2 x Frankel, 2 x Ulysses) 2 dam line grandsons (Rhododedrun and Rain Goddess) 1 great-grandson (Dear My Friend, via Teofilo) Whilst King of Steel is free of the Sadler's Wells line, is not free of the great Northern Dancer himself, who appears on both sides of his pedigree with Nureyev (5th gen), Danzig (6th gen) and The Minstrel (6th gen) all on the sire side, and Secreto (5th gen) and Nijinsky (6th gen) on the dam side.
Would like to see stable in better form before the big race, but do think Military Order is the horse to beat Currently 9-2
Think I will go for a Win on Passenger, plus a combination tricast with: Passenger Military Order The Foxes
Can't have Arrest. I don't see what the issue is with The Foxes so I'm staying with him. I'll back Waipiro EW for a bit of fun.
This should be one of the most open runnings of the Derby in years but the betting does not reflect the fact that Timeform rates nine of the entries within 4lb of each other. The Chester Vase was won by Arrest, who will clearly stay the trip but will he be as effective on quicker ground? He outpointed old rival Adelaide River that day but only by a little more than when the pair were second and third at Saint Cloud as juveniles. On the bare form lines, the O’Brien son of Australia has little chance, his only win was on the kitty litter on debut and he has only ever run on soft turf. Whilst Arrest has won on quick ground, it may be that the son of Frankel prefers to get his toe in. The price collapse in to favouritism after Frankie won the Oaks made me laugh; it is now on the drift. In the Saint Cloud race, the other Ballydoyle runner, Covent Garden, finished second last ahead of a tailed-off runner but the winner was Dubai Mile, getting the verdict on the nod. Charlie Johnston’s colt reappeared in the 2000 Guineas and, unsurprisingly, was never a contender for the win, staying on into fifth place a long way ahead of disappointing favourite Auguste Rodin. There is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side suggesting Dubai Mile should get the trip but can he go two places better than his sire? Auguste Rodin spent most of the winter as Derby favourite after winning the Futurity and his dam was second in the Oaks giving good grounds for thinking he will stay at Epsom; however, his form is all on soft ground and the Futurity does not look so good now after the disappointing efforts by the placed horses this term. Talk of the Triple Crown bit the dust at HQ so is this just another talking horse? Other form from Chester can be found in the Dee Stakes, where San Antonio beat Alder over ten furlongs. Donnacha O’Brien’s runner up started favourite on the Roodeye but declines a rematch and his father’s winner San Antonio had won a Dundalk maiden previously and his dam was second in the Irish Oaks but he is another than has only raced on soft turf or kitty litter. Artistic Star is unbeaten in his two starts, both on easy ground, but going from ten furlong novice race to the Blue Riband may be a leap too far for Jeff Smith’s Galileo colt. Sprewell has run all four of his races on soft ground, winning a four runner auction race and the Derby Trial at Leopardstown this year. He looks to have good prospects of getting the trip but was the easy ground the reason for the easy win last time out? The two key trials were at York and Lingfield. There was a good sized field for the Dante as many trainers went there for the quick ground as all the other trials were on soft conditions. There is little reason to believe that Dear My Friend will reverse placings with those that finished ahead of him over the extra two furlongs as he never challenged that day. Passenger was having only his second start and has been supplemented to the Derby. For many he was the eyecatcher in the York race as he got in traffic trouble but stayed on to dead heat for third. Winner The Foxes had warmed up with a second in the Craven following on from winning the Royal Lodge on his last juvenile start (Dubai Mile second). Andrew Balding’s charge should have no problem with the step up to twelve furlongs as his dam has produced a couple of stayers. The eyecatcher for me in the Dante was the runner up White Birch. John Joseph Murphy’s grey was doing all his best work at the end and although his pedigree indicates that he might not stay, his style of racing suggests otherwise; although my problem would be his persistent slow starting might leave him in traffic trouble at Tattenham Corner. King Of Steel went in the stalls at York but ended up being withdrawn and is difficult to fancy on his debut for his new trainer Roger Varian. If he gets his stamina from his dam then he should get home and some might fancy him as an each way play at big odds but he is a big horse so will he handle Epsom? The Lingfield Derby Trial had to be run on the kitty litter but threw up two live contenders in winner MILITARY ORDER and runner up Waipiro. Since the race was over Derby distance, it is fair to assume that both will stay! Ed Walker’s colt had started 2023 with a 25/1 upset of Liberty Lane in a ten furlong novice race at HQ but that one subsequently just scraped home ahead of Dear My Friend in the Dante, so that form line makes the York form look superior. Similarly, Charlie Appleby’s colt had easily won a ten furlong novice race at Newbury on his seasonal bow but the runner up there Exoplanet was only a staying on third in the London Gold Cup off a rating of 97. So is the Lingfield winner as good as it looked at the time? It was much quicker than the Oaks Trial but the winner very much had it his own way. Those bothered about being drawn in boxes 1 and 2 can scratch Dear My Friend and White Birch. Watch The Foxes win again – the handicap of my money not aboard. I would have gone for White Birch as an each way but he may lose the race at the gate, so I am sticking with the boys in blue, Frankel and the colt that should handle the track and will be up near the pace, MILITARY ORDER to follow in the hoofprints of his brother.
I think The Foxes is way overpriced personally. 12/1 for a horse that won what’s probably been the best trial race in recent years looks generous. Andrew Balding has already won one classic this season, and can give Leicester City’s owners something to smile about this afternoon
That looked like a bunch of non stayers beaten by talking horse bred to stay and a "no hoper". What to make of that? Well, it was a good time so, given he goes on any ground that augurs well for the Arc Can't say much more as I'm busy eating my words ay the moment
That it's probably a very weak Derby. I'm not complaining though , picked Chaldean and Auguste Rodin as my 2 to follow throughout the year, so am very happy lol. O'brien is a genius, and said all along that the horse was bred for this distance and to forget about the Guineas as everything possible had gone wrong. Think he'll go and piss the Leger later in the year now too. Don't know if he's good enough to win a King George or Arc but wouldn't say he definitely can't. Just add, the 2nd has run a huge race and will defo keep an eye on him too
I was with you but emptied at the Dante distance. White Birch started slowly, didn't act yet ran on to finish 3rd. Think that was a good winner.
So much for this year's Lingfield Oaks and Derby trials. Rubbish performances in the Derby by both winners. Form on synthetic tracks for the turf is often very unreliable?
On direct pedigree I wondered how the hell can Kingston Steel be a 12f horse. But if you go back 5 generations you will find The Minstrel and Northern Dancer, and one generation further back, Northern Dancer again (obviously) and Ribot. On the dam side we only have to go back 3 generations to have Nashwan, then Secreto, Bustino, Nijinsky. Seems like something has come through from back there
