Ha ha! Patience, Hammer, patience! Not much will be revealed soon. I’m more interested in watching silly soccer at the moment.
Well done to those that persevered with the winner. They do not become a bad horse in one race. Watching the betting five minutes before the off of the Derby, I can assure you that it was not me shortening The Foxes from 12/1 to 7/1 even though it lost. One of my mates will be moderately unhappy as he backed the winner at 5/2 before the Guineas (despite me telling him to leave it at the crap odds) but that will probably not cover his losses on Arrest each way before it ran at Chester. It was no surprise that White Birch blew the start again even though they had changed the jockey, an act with which I disagreed. That said, he still stayed on from last place round Tattenham Corner to finish in the frame, so an each-way would have paid out. As it was I did my money on the horse that was last across the line, Military Order! I await the excuses but Appleby’s horses are hardly in great form. I am not convinced that this was a good Derby but subsequent events will tell us. Whilst the runner up was one of two outsiders in the field his performance is very worthy of merit making his seasonal debut. He got out of a pocket on the rails and led inside the distance but his run faltered in the last 50 yards, perhaps simply because he was race rusty. What King Of Steel does at The Curragh may tell us much about this Derby. The fourth Sprewell may be a St Leger horse but he was part of a horse sandwich half a mile out. This was too soon for Passenger – he could be one for next year with his trainer. The race pretty much unfolded at the three furlong mark, where Military Order came under pressure and found nothing for it (so the Lingfield performance not as good as it looked) and The Foxes came down the outside behind Auguste Rodin, both of them looking to be travelling well. When King Of Steel got out from being stuck behind the pacesetters the race was well and truly on. The third flew late on past beaten runners but was never going to catch the front two. The mugs who backed Arrest down to favourite knew their fate as he clearly did not go on the ground and looked ill at ease on the camber in the straight. Credit to Oisin in the post race interview for telling it as it was with The Foxes – the horse was running up and down on the spot in the last furlong and a half, did not stay and presumably will be heading for the Eclipse. Several of the other fancied runners barely got a mention and although the field were quite spread out at the finish. The race was only as quick as the Coronation but on ground that had dried out a day more, suggesting this was not a great race as the pacesetters seemed to slow up in the middle of the race, perhaps because one of them, Adelaide River, did not handle the track and went too quick early. It is notable that all the horses that were up with the pace never finished in the first six. So the jury is out...
I wonder if there’s something going on at the yard, they’ve not been in great form (by their own standards), just 2 winners from 20 runners in the last 14 days.
I think there are two or three ways to look at it, with all the points made by Swanny and yourself being valid. Charlie Appleby’s horses do appear to have fallen in a hole. On Friday and Saturday, I had the unwanted privilege of backing the last in the Coronation, Hurricane Lane, and the last in the Derby, Military Order; both from the Godolphin maestro’s yard. As noted, Lingfield Oaks Trial winner Eternal Hope, from the same yard, finished third last in the Oaks – a position she held throughout the race. The two members of the Classic generation may simply have won bad races at Lingfield but that would not explain the St Leger winner. The Oaks Trial runner-up was a late withdrawal from the Oaks but the fifth from Lingfield, Bright Diamond, only filled the same spot at Epsom, looking like a non stayer after tracking the leaders. The Derby Trial runner-up Waipiro never made any sort of challenge at Epsom plodding past beaten horses into sixth while the only horse behind him at Tattenham Corner finished third. I never back form from the kitty litter on turf as some horses are indifferent to the change of surface whilst some appear to be different horses. Lingfield had changed their classic trials to the kitty litter because the turf course was waterlogged and this also allowed them to re-open the races, which attracted more runners to the fillies’ race. The fact that the Lingfield races have been reduced to Listed status these days is because they have fallen out of favour in recent times as British trainers have preferred the Dante for their best horses and Ballydoyle has farmed the Irish trials and the Guineas.
