Transfer Rumours Summer 2024 transfer thread

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Tigerite said:
We’ve been through this. It’s the goals he conceded compared to how many he should have conceded. Look up xGOT (not xG)
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"Goals prevented

Given that expected goals on target (xGOT) measures the probability of shots on target resulting in goals, the only factor preventing them being scored is the goalkeeper. A shot that is worth 0.3 xGOT has a 30-per-cent likelihood of being scored but it is also a shot that has a 70-per-cent chance of being prevented by the goalkeeper.

This means that we can predict how many goals a goalkeeper would be expected to concede, based on the quality of the shots that they faced. It allows us to directly credit to goalkeepers for their ability to prevent goals, irrespective of their team's defensive strengths.

For example, during the Premier League 2019/20 season, Sheffield United's Dean Henderson was one of the standout performers. Based on the quality of the shots on target the Manchester United loanee faced (39.4 xGOT), the average goalkeeper would have been expected to concede over 39 goals. Given he only conceded 32 goals (excluding penalties and own goals), we can credit Henderson with preventing more than seven goals with his saves, which was the fourth highest in the Premier League that season."
https://www.skysports.com/football/...measures the quality,to do with these chances.

Why do they exclude penalties and own goals? Surely some of them are easier to save than others and they should be included in the statistics?
Some own goals may be the goalkeepers fault even.

As usual with statistics, they present a facade of being scientific but when you analyse the methodology there is a lot lacking.
 
Howdentiger2 said:
Ot all depends on the reasons, maybe Walter wanted to see what the squad offered before committing to signings, maybe he blocked players we had lined up early, maybe the club couldn't take the risk on signings before JP and JG just incase it didn't happen/they got injured etc. maybe Walter has asked for players that we didn't have on our potential lists ( this will almost certainly have happened ) Moore was obviously close but he chose for his own reasons to change his mind after sheff utd came in late....
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I suspect the fact the owners are still under a probationary licence this year has meant we've had to create the headroom before the EFL will sign off on any incomings.
 
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petersaxton said:
"Goals prevented

Given that expected goals on target (xGOT) measures the probability of shots on target resulting in goals, the only factor preventing them being scored is the goalkeeper. A shot that is worth 0.3 xGOT has a 30-per-cent likelihood of being scored but it is also a shot that has a 70-per-cent chance of being prevented by the goalkeeper.

This means that we can predict how many goals a goalkeeper would be expected to concede, based on the quality of the shots that they faced. It allows us to directly credit to goalkeepers for their ability to prevent goals, irrespective of their team's defensive strengths.

For example, during the Premier League 2019/20 season, Sheffield United's Dean Henderson was one of the standout performers. Based on the quality of the shots on target the Manchester United loanee faced (39.4 xGOT), the average goalkeeper would have been expected to concede over 39 goals. Given he only conceded 32 goals (excluding penalties and own goals), we can credit Henderson with preventing more than seven goals with his saves, which was the fourth highest in the Premier League that season."
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/12829539/expected-goals-expected-assists-pressures-carries-high-turnovers-and-more-advanced-stats-explained#:~:text=Whereas xG measures the quality,to do with these chances.

Why do they exclude penalties and own goals? Surely some of them are easier to save than others and they should be included in the statistics?
Some own goals may be the goalkeepers fault even.

As usual with statistics, they present a facade of being scientific but when you analyse the methodology there is a lot lacking.
Click to expand...

Because own goals are probably much more difficult to say whose fault it is, and penalties are probably in general skewed by their xG (0.76?). Anyway, it’s about the best you are going to get. What do you suggest as an alternative?
 
Mckechnie Orange said:
I suspect the fact the owners are still under a probationary licence this year has meant we've had to create the headroom before the EFL will sign off on any incomings.
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They also mentioned ages ago that selling both players changes the market we're shopping in so naturally wouldn't want to commit until thats done.
 
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Tickton Tiger. said:
My point is Pete, Kesler is saying last season was successful, hence other clubs interest in our players. Therefore Rosenior should not have been sacked at all and if Acun had doubts about him he should have at least given him until christmas to be proved right or wrong. As it is we shall never know, it was a decision ranking as bad as Robinson sacking Brian Horton because we lost at home to Swindon Town one Tuesday night. Swindon, who went onto the PL and we blooded two maybe three players that night, a stupid, stupid decision at the time.
But we are where we are and it's looking like the new manager has already been hung out to dry.
You say 'better to do everything in the summer' what have we done? Sacked the manager, lost the scouting network, sold our best players, so far bought no-one, and lost out to relegated sheffield united for a 32 year old who we'd offered a 3 year contract too.
We should have kept Rosenior and built on last seasons 7th place, not try and rebuild Rome.
I'm not a bed wetter either, I'm into my 61st year of support for this club this season, 61 years of blind faith, if I were a bed wetter Id have thrown the towel in years ago, like thousands did over the years.
Spin it as much as you like and I can appreciate fans wanting to do that but realistically this close season has been worse then the one Bruce walked and left us in the 5hite with the new season amost upon us.
Anyway, UTT.
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all the players were going to go anyway
how can you build on last season with only a few of the players still going to be around?
Acun was worried in January. What owner would give a manager another year when he had serious doubts about his manager's tactics?
 
petersaxton said:
all the players were going to go anyway
how can you build on last season with only a few of the players still going to be around?
Acun was worried in January. What owner would give a manager another year when he had serious doubts about his manager's tactics?
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He said he wasn't worried in January, it's the performance level going backwards after the investment in Jan that caused the issue.
 
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Tigerite said:
Because own goals are probably much more difficult to say whose fault it is, and penalties are probably in general skewed by their xG (0.76?). Anyway, it’s about the best you are going to get. What do you suggest as an alternative?
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are you saying that they judge how likely the goalkeeper is to save a penalty purely from the fact of where the penalty is taken from?
I would look at the kick and see how well the goalkeeper responded
my alternative would be to have the manager/goalkeeping coach judge the performance of the goalkeeper in each match
 
Mckechnie Orange said:
No, but the knock on effect of transfers tending to fall after the bigger clubs do their business will be delayed by the euros.

It's delaying the whole European market.
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I agree with that, but market started to move since group stages are done, except Hull. I would expect some transactions already.
 
petersaxton said:
are you saying that they judge how likely the goalkeeper is to save a penalty purely from the fact of where the penalty is taken from?
I would look at the kick and see how well the goalkeeper responded
my alternative would be to have the manager/goalkeeping coach judge the performance of the goalkeeper in each match
Click to expand...

They'll know the average conversion rate for pens and see where a GK's individual record stacks up against that metric.
 
petersaxton said:
are you saying that they judge how likely the goalkeeper is to save a penalty purely from the fact of where the penalty is taken from?
I would look at the kick and see how well the goalkeeper responded
my alternative would be to have the manager/goalkeeping coach judge the performance of the goalkeeper in each match
Click to expand...

No it’s based on the chance of a goal based on its final position in the goal, but for penalties they could make the keeper dive the wrong way, a panenka etc and that would unfairly skew xGOT I guess.
 
HullCityInEurope said:
Interesting the player they've brought in from Westerloo is Karol Borys who we tried to sign last year. Very highly rated but still only 17. Wonder if they're having a closer look at Maribor before potentially moving him across to us.
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I didn't know that, looks like same players are moving with same capital holders. It is like Habsburg days.
 
Tigerite said:
No it’s based on the chance of a goal based on its final position in the goal, but for penalties they could make the keeper dive the wrong way, a panenka etc and that would unfairly skew xGOT I guess.
Click to expand...
so it doesnt matter how well or badly the ball was kicked? just the direction?
 
oozkan said:
I agree with that, but market started to move since group stages are done, except Hull. I would expect some transactions already.
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City's owners agreed to a 3 year probationary license when they bought the club, meaning everything they do has to be signed off by the fa to ensure there's no chance of breeching ffp.

I suspect we've had to create the headroom before being allowed to commit significant funds elsewhere.

Obviously once the period is ended they'll be free to take more risks, such as getting replacements in before assets are sold.
 
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