"Goals prevented Given that expected goals on target (xGOT) measures the probability of shots on target resulting in goals, the only factor preventing them being scored is the goalkeeper. A shot that is worth 0.3 xGOT has a 30-per-cent likelihood of being scored but it is also a shot that has a 70-per-cent chance of being prevented by the goalkeeper. This means that we can predict how many goals a goalkeeper would be expected to concede, based on the quality of the shots that they faced. It allows us to directly credit to goalkeepers for their ability to prevent goals, irrespective of their team's defensive strengths. For example, during the Premier League 2019/20 season, Sheffield United's Dean Henderson was one of the standout performers. Based on the quality of the shots on target the Manchester United loanee faced (39.4 xGOT), the average goalkeeper would have been expected to concede over 39 goals. Given he only conceded 32 goals (excluding penalties and own goals), we can credit Henderson with preventing more than seven goals with his saves, which was the fourth highest in the Premier League that season." https://www.skysports.com/football/...measures the quality,to do with these chances. Why do they exclude penalties and own goals? Surely some of them are easier to save than others and they should be included in the statistics? Some own goals may be the goalkeepers fault even. As usual with statistics, they present a facade of being scientific but when you analyse the methodology there is a lot lacking.
I suspect the fact the owners are still under a probationary licence this year has meant we've had to create the headroom before the EFL will sign off on any incomings.
Because own goals are probably much more difficult to say whose fault it is, and penalties are probably in general skewed by their xG (0.76?). Anyway, it’s about the best you are going to get. What do you suggest as an alternative?
They also mentioned ages ago that selling both players changes the market we're shopping in so naturally wouldn't want to commit until thats done.
all the players were going to go anyway how can you build on last season with only a few of the players still going to be around? Acun was worried in January. What owner would give a manager another year when he had serious doubts about his manager's tactics?
He said he wasn't worried in January, it's the performance level going backwards after the investment in Jan that caused the issue.
are you saying that they judge how likely the goalkeeper is to save a penalty purely from the fact of where the penalty is taken from? I would look at the kick and see how well the goalkeeper responded my alternative would be to have the manager/goalkeeping coach judge the performance of the goalkeeper in each match
I agree with that, but market started to move since group stages are done, except Hull. I would expect some transactions already.
They'll know the average conversion rate for pens and see where a GK's individual record stacks up against that metric.
No it’s based on the chance of a goal based on its final position in the goal, but for penalties they could make the keeper dive the wrong way, a panenka etc and that would unfairly skew xGOT I guess.
I didn't know that, looks like same players are moving with same capital holders. It is like Habsburg days.
City's owners agreed to a 3 year probationary license when they bought the club, meaning everything they do has to be signed off by the fa to ensure there's no chance of breeching ffp. I suspect we've had to create the headroom before being allowed to commit significant funds elsewhere. Obviously once the period is ended they'll be free to take more risks, such as getting replacements in before assets are sold.
Well they will, but it'll be smoothed out to an average. Of course it can never be a perfect measure,
