Daily Racing Thread Saturday 27th. June 2020

I've had two bets for the evening, time to sit back and relax over a bottle of wine all going well.

In the Derby I've gone with Joseph O'Brien and his filly New York Girl 14/1 - caught my eye the last day when beaten 2.26 lenghts 4th to Peaceful in the 1000g's. The trip ought to suit given she is By New Approach and the Dams Sire was non other than classy Giants Causeway. She's a speculative punt where there are more questions than answers to most of the form book.

In the Vintage Crop I've went as straight forward thinking wise as can be and bet on Twilight Payment 5/2. If he runs the same race as his reappearance he should be hard to beat today. Many of the field have met and the placings reversed on more than one occasion but with that run under the belt, Twilight Payment gets my number one vote.

If one of these wins I will be happy, good luck having a go.

 

Winner and 6th..sadly with the latter didn't go with the bookies paying up to 6 places..

 

Afraid Sherpa looks as though he suffered a serious injury, pulled-up entering the straight. Sure hope he will be OK.

 

Aidan 1,2,3,4 some will not like this.

 

Sorry, don't agree. Winner won like a very good improving stayer, and I think still had a bit more to give in the closing stages. Drawn even worse than Rainbow Dreamer, but very sensibly ridden by Harry Bentley who somehow managed to get into a decent position from the very bad draw. Sounds harsh, but I think young Hollie was outsmarted this time? Winner backed from 8/1 earlier in the day, down to 9/2 fav., so a pretty popular winner I'd say.

 

Rain starting at Belmont so forget about Got Stormy tonight, doughs done, was under the assumption it was firm ground, and this turn of events is well in keeping with my current run, zero chance thats winning tonight.

 

Twilight Payment obliges and was heavily supported prior to the off as well. Always good to see them being punted after backing one. New York Girl ran her race 200 yards after the stalls, broke slowly, and lost too much ground being tucked in, they supplemented her on Tuesday for 50k, they will never see that again.

At least one won.

 

He was after being well supported as well. Shame that the ground is going against your selection. Straight shootout between Uni and Newspaper then?

 

I am in can't back out now , finger's crossed maybe it's her night

 

I think we saw a race with lots of good rides, and whilst you can only have one winner, I'd say the ride by Hollie Doyle was a good one. Funnily enough reading back on Rainers other post, had I been on before the race I would have said that I actually prefer a draw wider in that race. We've seen since the development of this artificial surface, that in this race those drawn middle to high seem to be able to get a good position in the run and when they are able to get across, they seem to sit behind a slack pace.

We saw that today, Hollie and David Egan got their horses into good positions following the pace, and given that they were following a modest pace, I thought they were brilliant rides. Harry Bentley gave his horse a good ride, and he won nicely in the end but it could be argued that was more to do with the handicapping of the horse than the ride. However the winner takes it all, and he does deserve the plaudits.

The two that were eyecatching for me was Ben Curtis and his wide swing and maintaining a wide run and Cosmelli who picked up really well and looked dangerous.

Certainly next year I will be looking for horses drawn wide who go with the pace, and as long as we don't get an overload of front runners, I think the pace will probably hold up once more.

 

The conditions were terrible looking for the Irish Derby.

Crossfirehurricane was anchored at the start and never had a prayer. He was never put into the race and did not confirm the form of his previous run. Pretty unsatisfactory stuff really.

The highest rated horse in the race won it but he was less than impressive in beating Tiger Moth. The latter horse came in rated 85 and it was a maiden he landed last time that has provided the 2nd, 3rd and 4th today. I would ask what the last Maiden race was that went on to give those places in a Classic next time out?

Sherpa at least got involved today before being pulled up. Hope the horse is OK.

Arthur's Kingdom was woeful and beaten more than 14 lengths in 9th place. Anyone hoping for a boost for Mogul's form will be on oxygen and Valium tablets after that showing.

If we are to assume that Santiago ran to his new rating of 111 today, we need to put up Tiger Moth to 110 and that is a a jump from a horse whose first two RPRs were 80 and 85. The 3rd and 4th will have to go up markedly from their previous ratings of 84 and 81 as well.

The Racing Post have decided to rate the race without lying down in a darkened room first and have trotted these figures out:

Santiago 117
Tiger Moth 117
Dawn Patrol 109
Order Of Australia 107

Sorry but I am calling Fanny on those ratings. Santiago and Tiger Moth on 117 means that both colts are 6 lbs superior to English King, who is warm favourite for Epsom. Total rubbish in my opinion.

 

It wouldn't be like Aidan to get horses to jump up immeasurably in form from run to run would it

 

Yes, I wouldn't be dogmatic about the effect of the draw, and all I meant by my original post-race remark was that Hollie's early tactics probably guaranteed her horse his top-six spot. I think he arguably had a few pounds too much to win a race like this and, by and large, I'd stand by my original thesis that he's a 100/101 horse running off 107. It can be done, but there were a lot of decent horses targeting this race and it was always asking a lot. You can't blame King for giving it a shot while the horse is in form but, given that he's run so prominently, it might be a while before the handicapper cuts him any slack, and I wouldn't be inclined to follow him.

 

There is improvement and there is complete bollocks.

It was a shoddy looking renewal coming in with a Queen's Vase winner leading the ratings on 111. Santiago himself had already been raised a hefty 17 lbs for his Royal Ascot run to lead the way today and with the Racing Post going in pushing up Tiger Moth 32 lbs today, Dawn Patrol by 25 lbs and Order Of Australia 26 lbs it looks completely ridiculous overrating of the form.

The assessors are generally caught out by this scenario where a poor renewal cannot just be seen for what it is. There is an obsession with awarding a certain level to the winner and fiddling the figures of the others to try to fit it in.

The Racing Post assessor has already gone back and upgraded the maiden today's placed horses ran in. He has added 2 lbs to each horse's figure for that race but it still looks ridiculously out of kilter.

Tiger Moth is 6 lbs higher than English King, the warm favourite for the Epsom Derby. Doesn't anyone else feel that is cobblers?

I suppose those who think Tiger Moth is that good should be backing him for the quick turnaround at Epsom at odds of 20/1.

To me Santiago ran below his Royal Ascot form today. He got a bit tired late and he had every right to be, turned out only 8 days after a Royal Ascot win.

 

Think of it the other way though, how much would a maiden winner (by 1/2 length) have to improve to finish a head second in a Group 1? Quite possibly you'd say it needs to improve by a couple of stones on raw form?

 

Maybe the horse didn't improve that much. The handicapper clearly had no idea how good the horse was coming into the race. True of so many horses

 

Given their position in the market, quite a few agreed with the RPR on it! That’s the joy of young horses, they can surprise everyone and let’s face it, the 2nd and 3rd are bred to be 110+ horses.

 

Exactly Ron.

The horse whisperer reckoned Tiger Moth and Dawn Patrol are still "big babies" who will have improved an awful lot again in another month. I wouldn't tend to follow any ratings system when it comes to deciding how any Aidan O'Brien horse will run. The man operates on a different level to any trainer on this planet.