Modest e/w on Ornate in the next at Newcastle (14:25) in the hope it might improve under these conditions.
What a great performance by Caspian Prince at the age of 11! One of my favourite horses of all time and I didn’t put a penny on 28/1
Tom Marquand again. He's coming along nicely as a jockey, he frustrated at times with some poor decision making, but all jockeys go through that learning period when stepping up to the big time, some get bad habits but he now seems to be getting it right more often than not.
Your Nobel-level shout at Windsor on Monday has obviously silenced the doubters. Since Nass doesn't seem to be here (tombstoning at Durdle Door would be my guess) it falls to me to point out the negatives about Rainbow Dreamer which, imo, outweigh the positives. 1) its recent performances have all come in conditions races, at least one of which was very uncompetitive. It''s never won a (flat) handicap off more than 97, and it runs today off 107, at the age of seven, in one of the most cut-throat handicaps of the season. 2) they do very occasionally win this from a high draw, and obviously the fact that it's now run on tapeta makes a lot of historic draw stats irrelevant. But, in general, a 15-draw isn't a good thing. 3) Hollie can still (I think) ride at 8.00. I know she's remarkably strong and works hard on her fitness, but it's never an advantage to carry a lot of lead in a big handicap. If an ex-hurdler is to carry 9-9 in a two-mile race, I'd want a big hairy tattooed bloke riding it. None of this is to say the beast won't win, and of course it's entirely capable of finishing in the top six. But I think the minuses outnumber the pluses and the phrase 'each way bet to nothing' has, as always, made me choke on my glass of (slightly disappointing) Montrachet.
Hi Swanny, a quick beer tip for you. I'm just drinking Karg Hefeweizen, brewed in Murnau. Absolutely stunning. Seems I am in good company:
Good afternoon Oddy. Not a Weißbier man but will certainly check on this Murnau brewery when racing finishes. For a good Helles, that is! Thanks for recommendation!
The Irish Derby is a very poor affair. Santiago is highest rated in the field on 111 and that was achieved over 14F in the Queen's Vase, so the drop back in trip would be a slight concern. I backed him for the St Leger and my worry would be that a win here would rule him out of a Classic that tends to be for horses not quite good enough over a mile and a half. Clearly improving and he could well be good enough in a weak renewal. His run will give a line on the form of Berkshire Rocco, the runner up in the Vase, who filled the same spot behind English King in the Lingfield Derby trial. Arthur's Kingdom ran behind Pyledriver at Royal Ascot. That race was perhaps better noted for the failure of leading Derby hope Mogul, who was a shade of odds-on but looked a bit slow in 4th place behind Mohican Heights, who himself had looked to lack pace before staying on a bit late on. Mogul is still one of Aidan's leading Epsom hopes but the trainer has a very mediocre looking team this year, with a worrying number covered by a small enough band in the ratings. It perhaps says a lot that a horse like Fiscal Rules is prominent in the betting. 2nd to Wichita as a 2YO, he then ran behind Siskin when 5th in the 2000 Guineas at the Curragh. Unusual to see a maiden this close to the fore of the betting in an Irish Derby. Fiscal Rules steps up by half a mile today and I find it hard to make a case for him staying the trip. Sire Make Believe won the French Guineas but never raced beyond a mile. The dam did stay further but you wouldn't have thought Fiscal Rules was crying out for this half mile jump in trip so soon after the Guineas. Hard to be too confident about anything really but I felt Crossfirehurricane appealed as an unbeaten candidate. The son of Kitten's Joy has improved with every start and he landed the Group 3 Gallinule last time out. That day the whole field had to set off after Toronto, who had set a suicidal pace at the front. Crossfirehurrican came wide, looking to be going best and when he took the lead he wandered slightly before settling down again and coming home to win it. I have seen some support for the notion that Sherpa can reverse form with him today but I felt Crossfirehurricane was still learning that day and visually it looked like he would cope with the step up in trip. Rated 5 lbs behind Santiago but there is scope to improve again and he steps up in trip, rather than down, so Santaigo seems no value at 11/4 despite his attractive profile. I suppose each-way four places appeals to some but I will just go in win only and if he doesn't stay it will be likely he won't place at all. 15/2 seemed a decent price for an unbeaten and improving colt and Joseph O'Brien sent out Latrobe to win the race two years ago. 7.15 Curragh Crossfirehurricane 15/2
Yes, I did a 3-minute study too on the Irish Derby (19:15). Grendel makes a good case for Crossfirehurricane, but I'll yet again have a modest e/w on Sherpa in a race dominated by the name O'Brien!
The last time the aforementioned met they were split by GOLD MAZE, Crossfirehurricane 15/2 and with Serpa 8/1 I'm going to take a chance that Gold Maze places @ 16/1. if the front three in the market haven't bought there "A" game and lets face it Aidens aren't exactly firing right now, every chance that the Harrington in mate could place
Yes, neat piece of e/w thievery, and well done. Thought Hollie probably won you the money when she got into the box seat early and didn't get carried wide all round that early long bend on the first lap. Haven't had a bet all day, and the Irish Derby looks insoluble, but I don't see Norwich beating MU in an empty stadium, and I think I'll have an interest-only bet on United for a clean sheet.