Daily Racing Thread Saturday 27th. June 2020

People get fixated on ratings but trying to figure out AOB runners is like trying to pick the lottery numbers in the correct order

 

NR

 

Non runner now after the rain thankfully. I think the rain makes it Newspaperofrecords to lose, she's a bit of a monster on soft and if the outsider let's her go she wins, race basically hinges on whether or not the outsider tries to spoil it for her. The horse I wouldn't have backed at 20s last night, I have now backed, so hopefully she gets an easy lead.

 

I look at ratings of very lightly raced horses like this First time out Yusain Bolt was entered in a minor race against me and I am rated (say) 35. Bolt misses the break but catches up and wins by 10m without breaking a sweat (not difficult to imagine - the not breaking sweat I refer to).The handicapper is impressed and allocates a rating of 65, leaving my rating unchanged. Next time out Bolt steps up in class and beats a 90 rated cosily by 2m. The handicapper is impressed and bangs his rating up to 110. But Bolt is actually a 150. He steps up into his first major race against 120-130 rated. According to the ratings he has upwards of a stone to stand a chance but of course, he is going to beat those just as easily. In none of his races has he had to run to his ability and why should he when he can win without trying. Meanwhile I've had my rating boosted to 55 without running another race.

What is actually bollocks is:
1. Bolt improved by 85 from his first run. Of course he didn't; the assessor just didn't have a clue how good he was and allocated a rating that was way out
2. My rating has gone up by 20 on the basis of how close I got to him, despite getting thrashed. No, that was as good as I can get and I am still 35

 

That being the case, how could you ever back his horses, or go against them?

What would you base any bet on?

 

As a general rule I don't back his horses too much of a minefield.

 

there was a period whenever donnacha rode ,you could back them blind .....

 

Oh well, we shall all see as the season progresses.

Pinatubo got a rating of 118 for finishing 3rd in the 2000 Guineas and we now have a maiden winner rated 117 for placing in a poor looking Irish Derby. Doesn't add up for me but that's the joy of opinions.

 

Fair enough but you must miss a lot of winners doing that.

 

She's good on that ground. Another wire to wire success for Newspaperofrecord. Back to her best. I have to say, I do like when a jockey is able to dictate from the front like that, there is a poetic simplicity to it all.

Until the next time, take care folks

 

Worked out well in the end, ground changed everything. Absolute gift for the winner and will be a prime candidate to oppose on fast ground next time now that people think shes a superstar again.

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Well Ger Lyons has got himself another good 2yo. The filly Frenetic looks very useful.

 

Chief Little Hawk was beaten more comprehensively than he had been at Royal Ascot by Tactical and the only horse he beat home was stablemate Hyde Park Barracks.

Chief Little Hawk had opened favourite for the Windsor Castle but watching him tonight you would have to wonder why. Both of Aidan's runners in the race are by Air Force Blue and both were having their third start within 17 days. Not much promise for their sire there and Aidan's strategy seems to be to run the guts out of them and perhaps nab a Listed win early doors. By the look of this they are not getting much time to progress between races and perhaps it is going to be a quick burn and hope for something with this sire's progeny. Not exactly a Galileo type profile here thus far anyway.

Looking back at that Windsor Castle race, I felt going into it that James Tate's Victory Heights needed 6F and he was outpaced before running on unable to get a clear run. Overall I thought it was an encouraging effort for a horse who was 28/1 and unfancied. Might try him if I see him at 6F next time.

 

I believe she may run in the Group 3 Coolmore sprint at Naas next Saturday too, so keep an eye out. Ger Lyons said she is an out and out 2yo and if she is well after today, will take her chance next weekend too.

That may be the excitement in the immediate aftermath of winning today but it will be interesting to see if she does line up there so quickly after winning last night. It certainly looked no more than a good blowout so she should be fine post race.

 

I do but I also save a lot of money too. He doesn't often land them at big prices so for what I usually bet I'm not missing out on much

 

Well Ron, Dawn Patrol was 86 going into the Irish Derby. He got 110 for his run in the Irish Derby. Tonight he was 1/8 Fav in a maiden race and was driven out to beat horses rated 82 (OR) and 61 RPR. He made hard work of it and earned an 88 rating for his effort in the Racing Post.

If I were a handicapper I would be dropping him but perhaps the assessors have another creative story to explain why a horse with 25 lbs in hand on official ratings has made such a hard job of landing a mediocre maiden.

 

Question is Grendel, how on earth did he get a rating of 110 for his Irish Derby effort. The race was run on good ground yet the time was slow by 7.67s and Dawn Patrol was 5l behind the winner achieving a speed figure of 54. Maybe he had a very hard race in the Derby and is struggling to repeat the modest performance he put up there. This is a typical example on RPR ratings being allocated based on how far a horse finished behind other horses rather than what it (and the other horses) actually achieved in that race