Rodgers ...

[carlthejackal]

btw everton got 72 points last year. that was actually some going for 5th and so we needed to get 73 points to take 4th

if we'd merely replicated the first 19 games of last season we would have got the 72 points. (included losing twice to city and cheslea therefore)

it wasn't super lads... it was good but the spectacular came in feb and march

Sorry to be pedantic. But 73 points would have replaced Everton at 5th but would not have been enough for 4th last year Your argument only applies if we assume that the top 4 are somewhat fixed - City, LFC, Chelsea, arsenal.

However If we look at the league as a whole, Arsenal needed 79 at 4th last season so that to come 4th last season Everton or anyone else needed 79 with a better GD or >79. No one actually believes that we would need that to get 4th this year. I actually agree that it would need around 72 this season.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Sorry to be pedantic. But 73 points would have replaced Everton at 5th but would not have been enough for 4th last year Your argument only applies if we assume that the top 4 are somewhat fixed - City, LFC, Chelsea, arsenal.

However If we look at the league as a whole, Arsenal needed 79 at 4th last season so that to come 4th last season Everton or anyone else needed 79 with a better GD or >79. No one actually believes that we would need that to get 4th this year. I actually agree that it would need around 72 this season.

Actually my point was an if

If lfc were not 2nd then you promoted up arsenal to 3rd and therefore Everton to 4th on 72 so then I insert lfc back in on a 73 to take a theoretical 4th

You are right that if the same top4 applied then Everton would have needed 80 last year

Basically as we speak 4th places Southampton have 36 points, simply doubling that tally gives 72 which would therefore say oh 73 points needed which is still within the 70 +/- 3 I say usually. In any event as we have 29 point that means the core point of a major run of form holds true

18 games, 44 points....

 

[astro]

Actually my point was an if

If lfc were not 2nd then you promoted up arsenal to 3rd and therefore Everton to 4th on 72 so then I insert lfc back in on a 73 to take a theoretical 4th

You are right that if the same top4 applied then Everton would have needed 80 last year

Basically as we speak 4th places Southampton have 36 points, simply doubling that tally gives 72 which would therefore say oh 73 points needed which is still within the 70 +/- 3 I say usually. In any event as we have 29 point that means the core point of a major run of form holds true

18 games, 44 points....

More competition for top 4 should mean teams taking points off each other and a lower points total needed, but that's complicated by teams like Arsenal consistently bottling it against other top 4 competitors and so doing nothing towards this

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

More competition for top 4 should mean teams taking points off each other and a lower points total needed, but that's complicated by teams like Arsenal consistently bottling it against other top 4 competitors and so doing nothing towards this

it can but it can also mean a higher standard too. its hard to say what will occur as its all tied up with cups and whos competing and so forth.

If for example we just say the following for pig iron

3. Manchester United37
4. Southampton 36
5. Spurs 34
6. Arsenal 33.
7. West ham 32.

An i exclude LFc so nobody can accuse me of bias then........

Utd only have an fa cup run to worry about. that would only affect 2 games usually at most, they will play only one game a week unless they have a long cup run in which case the might have 2 games a week on a couple of occasions.

Southampton have exaclty the same scenario, except they have a replay too.

Spurs have the europa to worry about and it messes up the schedules for games. thye are also still in the fa cup. AND they are in the League cup semis. This seems to burden spurs an awful lot given thier squad profile so you'd surely expect them to drop back.

Arsenal have their perennial implosion month coming up. the LC and FA cup to worry about. this time 12 months ago they had 45 points in the bag... they ended on 79. thats a 34 point return for them so hardly a total collapse but they had a bad run. thats what cost them any chance of the title. 33+34 = 68 points. Arsenal will have to go some to get near 72 points.

West ham. Still in Fa cup. thats all there is to be said really. nobody believes they will return enough for 4th anyway.


So:

Last years top 5 were

City
Liverpool
Cheslea
Arsenal
Everton

by game 20 the table was:

Arsenal 45points
City 44 points
chesea 43 points
LFC 39points
EVERTON 38points

This year what we CAN say is that 3rd and 4th have 6 and 3 points less than last year's 3rd and 4th teams. therefore teams are a bit behind last years tally.

Arsenal slumped from top and on 45 points to 79 points (some slump eh) so unless a city or cheslea (wouldn't some love that eh eh) do the same the top 2 are a lock. Therefore I think its reasonable, but not at all scientifiy to simply double the points tally for all teams as of today ans see where that gets to,


3. Manchester United 74
4. Southampton 72
5. Spurs 68
6. Arsenal 66.
7. West ham 64.

then simply apply some logic to adjust these points.

3. Manchester United 74 I'd leave as is. I think they've had some good runs in there and bad form too so why adjust?
4. Southampton They have a small squad. 66 points? = -8points off.
5. Spurs 68- they've improved.. a lot. but have a smallish real squad they rely on and a lot of comps. 64 points = -4... I think kane and erikkson are the reasons why its not more.
6. Arsenal 70. +4. I am going to add 4 to arsenal. I honeslty think they have a decent cl draw so will go to QF. I think they will do better in league than they have so far.
7. West ham 60. honestly i think there will come a point where they will settle, just like everton did a bit, maybe an injury or two will drop them off the top, maybe they will beat everton and have a cup run. who knows but i just feel they will come to 5/6 games to go and just peter out as they won't be quite close enough.

That all means my prediction is still Utd 3rd, arsenal 4th. Perhaps big club bias there I see spaurs and arsenal close to each other so they could push each other too as rivals. So LFC need 71 points to get above arsenal

that aint happening. We will do well to catch southampton in my view for 6th..

 

[astro]

Man Utd won't get 74 IMO. Their current trend is for 70 and that's with the benefit of all the 'easy' fixtures coming early and them having no more points at this stage than what they got under Moyes i.e. all the games they bottled under him to piss off the fans are still to come. Their "just before the last few games" run in (games 29-34) will be crucial for Van Gaal's career with a sequence of; Spurs (H), Liverpool (A), Villa (H), City (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (A).

 

[Master Yoda]

No questioning that City and Chelsea aside the league is poor this year.

Arsenal, Liverpool, even United and Everton all dropping lots of points.

Very frustrating - with Sturridge (or a good summer) we could've been 3rd without really doing much. Probably more frustrating for Wenger though. Same for Everton if they'd ever turned up. Fair play to United for limping into 3rd. Results without performances but points count the same.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

maybe they will only get 70.. I simply doubled thier take and left it as such as they have no distractions plus a good forward line to go for it.

I agree yoda... the league has been well below par this year in terms of whats gone on but last year utd and spurs were very poor as well. Now arsenal are poor too.

I dunno... they could all turn it on from here on in that's the unknown and if i knew i'd make millions betting wouldn't i.

What we did last year IMO with 4 cbs at times, playing 5-2-3 with moses and all sorts yielded 39 points for us.. we were not all that last year. In the end we've done very poorly and just totally lacks intensity and goals and yes very poor summer is a part of it. ok, say lallana, ok say markovic, ok lovern but to sign balotelli was nuts on a stick.

Really LFc are too far back to go for 4th realistically now as we are saying we are going to buy no-one but its there for 3/4 sides to fight owver and in the end one will fall over the line.

I am thinking arsneal and spurs will scrap for it by default.

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

my prediction for lfc for rest of year is: (using optimistic/pessimitic guesses in the brackets)

Sunderland (W/D)
Aston Villa (W/D)
West Ham United (D/L) (base don west ham from
Everton (W/D) (based on everton form tobes)
Tottenham Hotspur (D)
Southampton (D/L) away game folks
Manchester City (D/L)
Burnley (W)
Swansea City (W/D)
Manchester United (D) at anfield, i don't see a win in this but i think we'll raise it too
Arsenal (D/L)
Newcastle United (W/D)
Hull City (W/D)
West Bromwich Albion (W)
Queens Park Rangers (W)
Chelsea (L)
Crystal Palace (W)
Stoke City (W/D)

my wildly optimistic tally is 39 points. that means we could get 68 points. or in other words just shy of my guess for arsenal

my really pessimistic target is 23 points = 52 points (which is only 3 points behind the trend on astros chart remember

the mid range between the two therefore is 60 points so by my reckoning that is just about 7th. it'll be interesting to see by all the swings and round abouts if we can beat that... I think we could end up doing a cup season especially if we somehow get past cheslea in the league cup as an early europa spot in effect would end up pushing us to focus fully on europa league for cl spot.... I thin k that actually might occur... i don't think we'd have the nouse to do it but i thin we might just sink into a cup mentality for rest of year.

 

[carlthejackal]

Man Utd won't get 74 IMO. Their current trend is for 70 and that's with the benefit of all the 'easy' fixtures coming early and them having no more points at this stage than what they got under Moyes i.e. all the games they bottled under him to piss off the fans are still to come. Their "just before the last few games" run in (games 29-34) will be crucial for Van Gaal's career with a sequence of; Spurs (H), Liverpool (A), Villa (H), City (H), Chelsea (A), Everton (A).

I thought they had played every team including the big ones by now!

In fact looking at the run above I've got the horrible feeling that they'll be getting a lot of joy. European matches for their opponents and lack of rest + injuries will favour the mancs.

If they get 3 points against the saints, I think they'll easily get 70 points and more likely reach 74 than any one else apart the top 2.

 

[astro]

I thought they had played every team including the big ones by now!

In fact looking at the run above I've got the horrible feeling that they'll be getting a lot of joy. European matches for their opponents and lack of rest + injuries will favour the mancs.

If they get 3 points against the saints, I think they'll easily get 70 points and more likely reach 74 than any one else apart the top 2.

The stats don't lie. Van Gaal has exactly the same number of points as Moyes (plus Giggs as caretaker against Hull and Southampton) from the equivalent fixtures last season. He's taken them nowhere so far and everyone else has just dropped down.

Man Utd's results in March and April will define their season and that's where things could go very good or bad for them.

 

[Super G Ted'inho]

I thought they had played every team including the big ones by now!

In fact looking at the run above I've got the horrible feeling that they'll be getting a lot of joy. European matches for their opponents and lack of rest + injuries will favour the mancs.

If they get 3 points against the saints, I think they'll easily get 70 points and more likely reach 74 than any one else apart the top 2.

Pretty sure you play every team in the opening nineteen games

 

[carlthejackal]

The stats don't lie. Van Gaal has exactly the same number of points as Moyes (plus Giggs as caretaker against Hull and Southampton) from the equivalent fixtures last season. He's taken them nowhere so far and everyone else has just dropped down.

Man Utd's results in March and April will define their season and that's where things could go very good or bad for them.

You could be right on this.

The difference with last season is that Moyes could never beat a top side whilst with van Gaal they don't seem to have that psychological block.

As for everyone dropping down may be down to two things: the emergence of unfancied Saints, west ham as challengers so far and 2) the dominance of the top 2

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

march and april?

i'd go back to swnsea away!

21 Feb Barclays Premier League Swansea City A
28 Feb Barclays Premier League Sunderland H
04 Mar Barclays Premier League Newcastle United A
TBC FA Cup FA Cup sixth round
14 Mar Barclays Premier League Tottenham Hotspur H
21 Mar Barclays Premier League Liverpool A
04 Apr Barclays Premier League Aston Villa H
11 Apr Barclays Premier League Manchester City H
TBC FA Cup FA Cup semi-final N
18 Apr Barclays Premier League Chelsea A
25 Apr Barclays Premier League Everton

it is interesting to see the mancs put the fa cup final even in on their fixtures. most sides dont put any cup round they are not qualified in... even chelsea dont do that.

but look at the fixturess its one a wekk lads and they've done well in their current run against the same sides.

there's only 2/3 toughies in there really so i think they aint that badly off

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

You could be right on this.

The difference with last season is that Moyes could never beat a top side whilst with van Gaal they don't seem to have that psychological block.

As for everyone dropping down may be down to two things: the emergence of unfancied Saints, west ham as challengers so far and 2) the dominance of the top 2

i don't think so... we beat southampton yet are on 29 points verses 39 points this year. we lost to chelsea and city last year and this year.

arsenal have just been poor especislly at the back they had 45 point last year and 33 now they beat both west ham and souhampton

this year chelsea have 46 points and city have 46... last year they had 44 and 43... hardly different!

last year everton had 38 and this year they have 21.


the reality is its not that much different its just different sides doing better or worse but the thoughts are the big teams who've done worse so far will pick up and the two small sides who've done well will fall back.... why?

if i may be so bold in 2007 just as one example bolton were 4th on 36 points and portsmouth were 5th on 35. By the end bolton were 7th on 56 points (20 points from 18 games) and pompey were 9th on 54 points.

we can only guess on southampton and west ham but history gives us a guide. by all means prove me wrong saints.... but i'd take yer money any day

another example villa 2008/09.... 4th on 38 points after 20 games... finished 6th on 62 points.

 

[Treble]

The stats don't lie. Van Gaal has exactly the same number of points as Moyes (plus Giggs as caretaker against Hull and Southampton) from the equivalent fixtures last season. He's taken them nowhere so far and everyone else has just dropped down.

Man Utd's results in March and April will define their season and that's where things could go very good or bad for them.

Tbh Astro if we rack up the points over the so-called easy run coming up, top 4 could be done by game 30 for us.

If we're still 3rd by then, it will be hard to catch up. Mind you, we may not be 3rd after Sunday!

 

[astro]

Tbh Astro if we rack up the points over the so-called easy run coming up, top 4 could be done by game 30 for us.

If we're still 3rd by then, it will be hard to catch up. Mind you, we may not be 3rd after Sunday!

Could be, but if things are still in the balance by March then there's the possibility of it all going downhill very fast if you have some bad form/injuries/correct decisions given against you.

Might want to reserve the plane banner now while it's cheap just in case

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

Tbh Astro if we rack up the points over the so-called easy run coming up, top 4 could be done by game 30 for us.

If we're still 3rd by then, it will be hard to catch up. Mind you, we may not be 3rd after Sunday!

*coughs* bollocks *coughs*

if you say that then you might as well say you cn get 90 points.

70 at game 30 = another 24 possible points.

at 30 games last year chelsea were top with only 66 points!!! (city had 3 in hand mind)

 

[moreinjuredthanowen]

*coughs* bollocks *coughs*

if you say that then you might as well say you cn get 90 points.

70 at game 30 = another 24 possible points.

at 30 games last year chelsea were top with only 66 points!!! (city had 3 in hand mind)

also just to be clear you've also just said that in the next 10 games you'll take 70-37 = 33 points.

in case you've missed it thats 3.3 points per game

 

[carlthejackal]

i don't think so... we beat southampton yet are on 29 points verses 39 points this year. we lost to chelsea and city last year and this year.

arsenal have just been poor especislly at the back they had 45 point last year and 33 now they beat both west ham and souhampton

this year chelsea have 46 points and city have 46... last year they had 44 and 43... hardly different!

last year everton had 38 and this year they have 21.


the reality is its not that much different its just different sides doing better or worse but the thoughts are the big teams who've done worse so far will pick up and the two small sides who've done well will fall back.... why?

if i may be so bold in 2007 just as one example bolton were 4th on 36 points and portsmouth were 5th on 35. By the end bolton were 7th on 56 points (20 points from 18 games) and pompey were 9th on 54 points.

we can only guess on southampton and west ham but history gives us a guide. by all means prove me wrong saints.... but i'd take yer money any day

another example villa 2008/09.... 4th on 38 points after 20 games... finished 6th on 62 points.

I am not so sure about Southampton. Any other team I would have been more certain of their collapse at the end of the season. This saints team somehow looks more resilient. They had a tough period but they recovered. I easily see them in fourth unless Arsenal or Spurs go on a amazing run.

I cannot see the mancs failing. In fact it is depressing that we seemed to have swapped places with them. There are so many similarities that I wouldn't be THAT surprised if we ended in the same reverse positions. Even Astros stats seemed to prove my point although he likes to put a different slant on them.

 

[Treble]

*coughs* bollocks *coughs*

if you say that then you might as well say you cn get 90 points.

70 at game 30 = another 24 possible points.

at 30 games last year chelsea were top with only 66 points!!! (city had 3 in hand mind)

I'm not saying we'll have 70 points by 30 games If you get to 30 games and you're 3rd, with 8 games to go, they run down without too much turnaround in points. Astro understood what I was saying

In those heady days when we won league title, I always felt if we had a 4/5 points gap with 7/8 games to go the opposition would run out of games to catch us and they usually did (no fcker mention 2012!). I'd feel the same if we were 3rd.