Relegation Watch

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who have qpr actually beaten..????two sides that are in the same boat as them. you can forget norwich going down as they are one win and a draw from safety and even on a bad run should be able to get 4 points. reading saints and qpr are a lot of pundits favorites and i cant disagree with that...
 
I_Clean_holtys_boots said:
Did this weekend's result seem worse than it actually is, as all the teams at the bottom were playing each other it was inevitable that clubs were going to gain some ground.

I think that 16/1 will change dramatically if we dont win out of our next 2 games.
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No,not dramatically.As things stand if we didn't take a single point from our last nine games we probably wouldn't finish bottom.Ihave done an analysis of this on here before but at the risk of boring you all the bottom of the table tends to move up at about a point a game.If you look at the bottom six teams the norm is that they take 4,5,6 or 7 points between them per game.When one team gets a win two others tend to get beaten,that's the reality of life at the bottom.As our Welsh friend observes we need one win and a draw,
 
This week's games at the bottom,and it's another crucial one,one match in particular could have a dramatic effect on the outcome of the season:


Villa v QPR If any match warrants being called a six-pointer it's this one.A win for Rangers and they are a single point off Villa with a better GD,A win for Villa and the gap becomes a potentially unbridgeable seven points with just eight games left.Paradoxically here the draw probably favours the home side because it maintains Villa's safety buffer.It's a match that Rangers whole season possibly hinges on,they don't come bigger than this until Survival Sunday.

Southampton v Liverpool.Saints form hasn't been good since changing managers.Just the one win in seven for Pochettino has seen their position deteriorate.Although they still have a five point cushion over Wigan the Pie Eaters have a game in hand.Liverpool conversely have hit form with The Coypu knocking them in for fun.Looks tough for Southampton this one.

Wigan v Newcastle. Big win for Wigan at Goodison and they would probably trade a semi final FA cup place for three points.The Geordies beat Stoke last week and look safe now but that may not necessarily be good news for Bobby Brown Shoes side.

Sunderland v Norwich Both teams fans are grizzling about results,goals,managers you name they are grizzling about it.Should they be? A draw would be OK for both sides here,although Norwich will be happier.Surely not another 0-0? Don't bet against it.

Man utd v Reading Probably not much to be said about this one.Anything other than a home win would be the Premiership shock of the season.
 
The sacking of McDermott was crass and i hope now that Reading go down (and for that reason only really as I have nothing against them at all)
Similarly Southampton for getting rid of Adkins. As for the 3rd contender - it surely has to come from QPR, Villa or Wigan and really not sure which. It may run to the final set of fixtures.
 
Agree with your match summaries CT. A lot will depend on how the teams at the bottom respond as the pressure mounts and games left get fewer and fewer. Wigan, QPR and Villa have more experience of this, which will help, so pressure may mount further on Reading and Southampton. Like most, I feel a draw would be a good result on Sunday. Like you, Thurnby, I think that the Saints and Royals have compounded their problems with their strange sackings at this stage.
 
Reading's smacks of desperation whilst Saints defenestration of Adkins could well become to be seen as the worst managerial decision of the season.I think that there is a big question mark against Cortese's judgement.It all feels far too close to the QPR fiasco with a volatile Itallian banker pulling the strings.The fans generally have got behind Pochettino although several clearly share my view.Surely a manager being unable to speak the language has to have an effect? I expect Southampton's position to deteriorate as they now look pretty toothless in front of goal.
 
I think it's going to be difficult for any of the bottom 3 teams now. Wigan have the best chance, but their game in hand is at ManCity. They need to beat Newcastle tomorrow, but that's a big ask.
 
It would be a brave gambler who would stake their cash on either a QPR or Reading revival to the extent that they stay up.My view is that those two are gone now.Wigan's two games in hand need to yield them four points to give them a decent chance of catching 17th place.I will post a fuller analysis after we know the results from today's two games affecting the bottom six places.
 
Just looked at both Reading's and QPR's forthcoming fixtures and both are quite tough - also, they still have to play each other!!!

Reading - Arsenal v Reading, Reading v Southampton, Reading v Liverpool, Norwich v Reading, Reading v QPR, Fulham v Reading, Reading v Man City, West Ham v Readiing


QPR - Fulham v QPR, QPR v Wigan, Everton v QPR, QPR v Stoke, Reading v QPR, QPR v Arsenal, QPR v Newcastle, Liverpool v QPR



IMO, I can't see either team getting much more than 10 points and that's being generous!!!!
 
I wouldn't worry too much on Wigan. Gets Villa a bit closer to the drop so thats good. We just need to focus on us and we will be fine. Wigan is going to be a really hard game though. No doubts. What a weird old team they are!
 
This week was a good one for teams in the bottom six of the table.Spouthampton,Villa and Wigan with wins plus a lucky point for Sunderland means a total of ten points between them.The two teams that missed out look fatally isolated now.

QPR 23 points - Relegation odds 2/9 on.Rangers are a perfect illustration of just how hard it is to drag yourself to safety.Two wins and a defeat have yielded six points only for 'arry to find himself seven points adrift of Villa in 17th place.Games running out npw.

Reading 23 points Odds 1/10 on.Above QPR only by virtue of goals scored Reading look equally doomed now.So who will occupy 18th place?

Wigan 27 points Odds - Evens Three points today after a 90th minute winner.Could this be the start of the Pie Eaters traditional revival?

Villa 30 points odds 2/1 A massive win for Lambert has improved the situation but still only three points ahead of Wigan -with a worse GD.

Southampton 31 points Odds of 7/1 look generous but possibly affected by the perceived ineptness of.....

Sunderland 31 points Odds of 4/1.Horrendous looking fixtures remaining and only able to scrape a home point with the help of even more inept officials today they look to be the worst of those at the bottom.Maybe their odds are generous? GD currently one better than Saints.

West Ham 33 points Odds 25/1.The bad form side.Have slipped down the table relentlessly since January.Probably will scrape to safety but if the points needed were to move to high 30's could be drawn into the melee.
 
The weekends results have cast QPR and Reading slightly adrift and these two now look doomed - the wins for Wigan, Villa and The Saints has closed the gap and 18th place at season's end could easily be the domain of any currently up to team up to 11th (Stoke).

It's going to be a tight run in and could possibly go down to the final day.
 
oldcanariesfan said:
The weekends results have cast QPR and Reading slightly adrift and these two now look doomed - the wins for Wigan, Villa and The Saints has closed the gap and 18th place at season's end could easily be the domain of any currently up to team up to 11th (Stoke).

It's going to be a tight run in and could possibly go down to the final day.
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None more so than Wigan v Villa.
 
Hi, long time watcher, like these kind of posts. Nice work by Cruyff's Turn. Lots of teams in the mix. I see Stoke and Sunderland fans are a bit twitchy. West Ham and Wigan fans don't seem to post much here. Looks like Reading and QPR are being cut adrift. We have the games to get points bar Arsenal and shouldn't need to go to Manchester City seeking a result. Excellent performance at Sunderland against the odds. Must say, Hughton's foresight in back-up goalkeepers could be a master stroke. Gunn's crock in 1994/95 still rankles with me!
 
Sunderland will be very nervous with their upcoming fixtures
It's written in the stars though surely that one of villa or Wigan will need to win that game to stay up on the last Sunday
We are edging to 40 points - glass defo half full again with Wigan, swans, stoke and reading all coming up
 
canarian said:
Hi, long time watcher, like these kind of posts. Nice work by Cruyff's Turn. Lots of teams in the mix. I see Stoke and Sunderland fans are a bit twitchy. West Ham and Wigan fans don't seem to post much here. Looks like Reading and QPR are being cut adrift. We have the games to get points bar Arsenal and shouldn't need to go to Manchester City seeking a result. Excellent performance at Sunderland against the odds. Must say, Hughton's foresight in back-up goalkeepers could be a master stroke. Gunn's crock in 1994/95 still rankles with me!
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Welcome! For some reason your post got pre-moderated, which I don't understand. If it happens again and we don't notice, PM myself, canary-dave or Maestro and we'll sort it.
 
I don't know what others think but for my money today's result was one of the best of the season.Given the circumstances of the dodgy decisions it would have been easy to have crumbled.Not only did we not do that but for long spells of the game we didn't look under pressure at all.We didn't drop deep as teams often do in those situations and with a bit better luck could have easily won it.I was sat with a couple of Mackems in the pub and they reckoned that it was not a red card and it was either no penalty or one a piece.
 
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