Relegation Watch

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Mmmm, I think that's a tad optimistic. 42 possibly.I see QPR are speculating that they will be clear of the mire with two more games played!:D
 
Cruyff's Turn said:
Mmmm, I think that's a tad optimistic. 42 possibly.I see QPR are speculating that they will be clear of the mire with two more games played!:D
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qpr will go down, i am absolutely certain of it. this rubbish about closing the gap is just misguided. its not about how many points behind you are - its about how many points you need to stay up. once the gap is closed they have to maintain their form for a large number of games. don't get me wrong, they've given themselves a glimmer of hope, but that's all it is. had they lost at the weekend they'd have been a complete write-off and they were very fortunate to win the game anyway. my guess would be they might not finish bottom now but they will still go down. if they reach 33 points they'll have done well. put it into perspective - they've won three games all season. THREE. from 28 games. and now they have to win a minimum of FIVE of their last ten. ain't gonna happen....
 
Cruyff's Turn said:
Mmmm, I think that's a tad optimistic. 42 possibly.I see QPR are speculating that they will be clear of the mire with two more games played!:D
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Yes there is a thread in which the OP asks that if we win our next two games could that lift us into 17th place, but if you read the comments on there most, if not all urge moderation in expectation. Believe me, after the season(s) we've had since promotion the stuffing has been well and truly knocked out of all but the most stoic visionaries remaining. We are well aware that survival is an extremely long shot, but where there's life.....
 
I don't think we need to concern ourselves with relegation worries now. 8pts clear with 11 left to play is pretty secure. To go down we would need to get nxt to no points from our remaining fixtures and we have not been on a run like that all season.

Even during our recent winless run we were drawing enough to see us comfortable. We have a run of matches now where we can pick up points and I expect to see us pass the 40pt 'safety' mark comfortably in the next few weeks.
 
This weekends big three at the bottom:

Reading v Villa: The big one without a doubt.If Reading lose then I think that they have had it.Not quite as bad for Villa.I think they will play for the draw-and get it.

QPR v Sunderland: Black Cats have slipped back into the picture but it's worth noting that they have gained thirteen of their thirty points on the road this season,so away form not their weak point.Possibly another draw?

Norwich v Southampton: A draw would not be a disaster for either side whilst defeat for Saints with two tough fixtures against Liverpool and Chelsea would see them back in the dogfight proper.After a win against Man City sacking Adkins is starting to look like a risky move and they could well come to regret it.
 
I wouldn't rule us out of the relegation mire just yet, its still quite possible we could only pick up 4 points from the remaining 10 games.

I actually think we'll lose today because our form is so bad.
 
We'll see, its very rare I'll state that I think we'll lose, the result against Everton just papered over the cracks for me, we were dire for 90% of the game and deserved to lose.

Its only negative when compared with the previous comments. If you look at the cold hard facts its quite possible.

1 point from last 5 away

One win from last 6 home games

7 points from last 5 away and 5 at home, take away the very fortunate late winner we'd be looking at 5 points from 10 games. I know everyone wants to think everything is all rosy but the truth is it's not, not yet. The only thing we have going for us is our cushion of points because our form is through the floor.
 
carrabuh said:
We'll see, its very rare I'll state that I think we'll lose, the result against Everton just papered over the cracks for me, we were dire for 90% of the game and deserved to lose.

Its only negative when compared with the previous comments. If you look at the cold hard facts its quite possible.

1 point from last 5 away

One win from last 6 home games

7 points from last 5 away and 5 at home, take away the very fortunate late winner we'd be looking at 5 points from 10 games. I know everyone wants to think everything is all rosy but the truth is it's not, not yet. The only thing we have going for us is our cushion of points because our form is through the floor.
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With Reading and Villa at home alone we should be looking at 6 points. As for today I think we will win and to be honest as we are nearing the end of the season still in need of points I am not too fust how we get them. I still maintain we have 4-6 points for the taking before we face Arsenal, if we manage to get just 1 or even 0 then maybe I will share your pessimism, for now I think we will be okay thanks to the somewhat unexpected win a fortnight ago <ok>
 
Carrabuh isn't the only one who thinks we'll lose. I do,too. Southampton are a good side going forward and I fear we'll sit back and let them go forward. Hope I'm wrong. And Clattenburg getting the game only increases my pessimism. He is a truly terrible referee who has a massive ego and will pride himself on not being a homer and going out of his way to prove it.

I think our season will come down to being able to beat Villa and Reading at home (or getting 4 points from these games and picking up a couple of dour draws away at Stoke and Sunderland). We should be able to do it, but I could do without the worry.
 
My feeling after today is that Reading are down.Being quoted at 1/8 on for the drop.QPR are still odds on at 4/7 because in a way Villa's win rather cancels out their progress because it is Villa that they have to catch.Similarly Wigan's position worsens despite the fact they have not played.Villa are the big gainers today and Sunderland continue to be dragged into the fight.
 
Yeah yeah CT keep on with your statistical analysis. Meanwhile we're picking up the points. Look over your shoulder son we're catching you up
 
If Holt had scored the penalty and we had fluked the win, I would have said we were almost certainly safe based on scraping 4 more points somehow. As it is, I don't think we are. I could certainly see us not winning another game. How can we win a game when we never have any players in the opposing half? Even the win against Everton was DESPITE Hughton rather than because of him. He would have played for 1-1 after the equaliser but the players had the bit between their teeth and went for it. I am sick of his negativity and his failure to distinguish between teams like MU and teams like Reading. On paper we played 4-4-2 but in reality there was no midfield at all because we were playing 8-0-2. What kind of gap was there between the midfield and the forwards? Even Snodgrass was crap today, so it seems like the one attacking player we had left who had a little bit of positive attitude has been ground into defeatism by Hughton.
 
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