Promotion watch

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Wolves were better in the second half, Rob, but they were a goal behind by then and had to come out of their shell. In the first half, they looked to be playing for a goalless draw, IMO. The "gifted goals to Reading were out of character for Wolves", but so was scoring 3 goals themselves, and that will be their limitation over the season as a whole, I think. Their strength seems to lie in being well organised by Kenny Jackett, but, IMO, it takes more than that to achieve a top two place.
 
Fair enough Rick - it's always dangerous judging a game purely on one half <ok>. Agreed that organisation is the main strength for Wolves. You're probably right that they are likely to fall short, but I do like the look of Sako and Van Le Parra so I am possibly overrating their potency. They are lacking a good striker.
 
I keep looking at the table in a slight state of shock seeing us not only at the top, but also with such a healthy goal difference - neither of which I would have expected after our dismal showing at Wolves. Credit to NA and the team for turning things around so quickly and uniting the fans (i haven't seen Carrabuh post any comments recently, or have I missed them?). I'm sure there are many tough days ahead and I can imagine that many other Championship managers are plotting how to be the next team to defeat us. As others have said, we are 'work in progress' and I'm fairly confident that we are now 'masters of our own destiny' as to whether we achieve the ambition of promotion!

IMO, it's far too early to say, but if we can avoid a heavy defeat over the next couple of months, then we should be in the play offs at the minimum!
 
Incidentally, I see that Pearce has complained about Forest injuries taking their toll. No surprises - this is where we could potentially kick on and really use the advantage of our squad depth. Fixtures are happening thick and fast until the mid-October break, teams will be getting multiple players injured and they simply don't have the back-up.

If we can put some clear ground between us and the other challengers for the title over the next two games, it will be useful for when we hit a rough patch, which I've no doubt we will.
 
canary-dave said:
I reckon 138 points should see us safely promoted!

<whistle>
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As long as we beat Wolves and Forest in our remaining matches, I'm pretty sure we need a mere 126 points to guarantee the title actually. We just need to win 35, draw 1 and lose 1 of our remaining matches and that will see us there.
 
On a serious note, 23 wins, 11 draws and 3 losses (or better) from here is perfectly doable for us, I think.

Quiet day at work...
 
RiverEndRick said:
Nah, go ahead and say it CT. I enjoy your statistical analyses. You going to come up with a promotion formula along the way, like you did in the old 'relegation watch' days?
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Well working on the basis of staying ahead of 3rd place (Currently Wolves averaging 2pts) it is 93 for auto promotion.
 
Cruyff's Turn said:
Well working on the basis of staying ahead of 3rd place (Currently Wolves averaging 2pts) it is 93 for auto promotion.
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That would tie in with Adams' target of averaging 2 points per game (92 points) and I think that's certainly about right, CT. I also think that with three strikers new to the team our scoring rate could improve further. Similarly, once Turner and Hooiveld get more game time our defense could also improve further, but it's the squad size and ability to cope with injuries that really makes me feel confident about our chances.
 
Just seen Oscar Garcia has left Watford because of ill health. Assuming that he's going to be away from the club recovering for a while, might this be a blow to their promotion bid?
 
Isn't about 85 usually enough for automatic promotion? That would be 24 wins, 13 draws and 9 defeats. Leicester's point score last season was unusual, and this league tends to be much tighter than that.
 
vietnamcanary said:
Isn't about 85 usually enough for automatic promotion? That would be 24 wins, 13 draws and 9 defeats. Leicester's point score last season was unusual, and this league tends to be much tighter than that.
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I think we went up with 84 in 10/11, and I remember thinking at the time that we were fairly fortunate, and that was a reasonably low tally to achieve automatic promotion with. Most teams serious about promotion target 90 points. You'd be terribly unlucky not to be in the top 2 with that many!
 
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