Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Sunday 5th October, 2014

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woolcombe-folly007 said:
Is it me or is Flintshere too big at 33/1 is Fabre only runner and he knows how to get him ready also we have never really seen how good or not he is
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Flintshire’s form has been very in and out; however, on good ground – which he is very likely to get – he is overpriced. I had a fancy priced ante-post ticket about him last year but he got stuck in the mud. He had better not come good this time as I am on Taghrooda.

I still think there is a good chance that on the PMU the favourite may be the Japanese Just A Way or Harp Star (as there will be a couple of thousand of them there and they like a bet); or Ectot because of the nationwide support. Fascinating to read that Elie Lellouche’s colt is named after a village in Normandy. The owner of the local tabac there may need a shop full of Euros to pay out on Monday morning!
 
Cant agree Bob, Tapestry was off her feet at York, wouldnt win an Arc in a million years. Taghrooda actually has a chance of running a big race if she gets a nice trip.

Would be amazed if they wasted their time running Tapestry.

Taghrooda looked a bit off at York, hard race in King George and in season apparently, Tapestry running in the Matron seems a strange prep for an Arc.

Im probably being a bit harsh on her as shes obviously a class filly but I would have went for the Opera, then again, if most of us were in the position to decide from that stable we would be running Australia, maybe they are just thinking nothing to lose with Tapestry, might as well run in the big one with Moore on.
 
TAPESTRY is joining the Arc field with Ryan Moore providing she seems well...for a fee of €120000.

The best horse they have ever trained however is nowhere to be seen.

Think Tapestry has loads of potential over this trip but she has gotten mad before 2 of her last 3 starts, whilst Coolmore ****ed with her by dropping her to 1m last time. Her chance will be decided in the prelims so anyone who wants to back her check her behaviour in the lead up.

ECTOT available at 7-8s on exchanges- betting is wide open. Price is there for those who are backing.
 
rainermariarilke said:
Four paragraphs to sit on the fence, Ron ? Come on:
Boris knows it
Bob knows it
I know it
Elie knows it
The horse probably knows it.

Ectot will win the Arc in third gear, smoking a Gitane and whistling La Vie en Rose. There's still some 7-1 in the darker corners of the market. Il est temps de se lever et de parier comme les hommes.
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I'm not sitting on the fence rainer; I can't even get on it. Haven't a clue mate.
 
It looked to be falling apart but its probably the best Arc field ive seen in terms of depth of quality, its a proper race, only Australia and Sea The Moon are dodging it, the two biggest hype horses of the season coincidently.
 
There were several horses supplemented to Sunday’s card, some more expected than others.

With Tapestry added, Ryan Moore will have a ride in the big one. For the home team, Prix Gladiateur winner Bathyrhon was added to the Prix Du Cadran, Shahah joined the field for the Prix Marcel Boussac and Citron Spirit is now in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère. From Ireland, Ansgar will be lining up for the Prix de la Forêt.

As widely expected, Charlie Hills’ Cotai Glory entered the fray for the Prix de l’Abbaye. What might not have been expected was the addition of Richard Hannon’s Burnt Sugar to the Lagardère.

Despite the additions, it is looking like there could be single figure fields for some of the supporting card on Sunday, especially the two year old events.

Saturday’s final declarations have seen the running order revised. The following is the running order and the runners for the four Group 2 races (* = coupled):

14:30 Prix Chaudenay (Gp 2, 3000m)
1 Glaring - A Fabre, F Prat
2 Doumaran - A De Royer Dupre, G Mosse*
3 Theme Astral - P Bary, T Jarnet
4 Auvray - E Lellouche, G Benoist
5 Rio Tigre - A Fabre, R Marchelli
6 Vent De Force - H Morrison, U Rispoli
7 Vazira - A De Royer Dupre, C Soumillon*
8 Baino Hope - J-C Rouget, I Mendizabal
9 Kaldera - P Harley, E Hardouin

15:08 Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Gp 2, 1600m)
1 Sommerabend - M Rulec, T Bachelot
2 Limario - A Shavuyev, A De Vries
3 High Spirit - Mme P Brandt, A Hamelin
4 Zhiyi - P Bary, S Pasquier
5 Affaire Solitaire - P Khozian, T Jarnet
6 Pinturicchio - E Lellouche, A Crastus
7 Baltic Knight - R Hannon, G Mosse
8 Solow - F Head, O Peslier
9 Emirate’s Girl - T Kodama, T Thulliez
10 Decathlete - A Fabre, F Prat
11 Matorio - H-A Pantall, F Veron
12 Kenhope - H-A Pantall, C Lemaire
13 Veda - A De Royer Dupre, C Soumillon
14 La Hoguette - J-C Rouget, G Benoist

15:40 Prix Du Royallieu (Gp 2, 2500m)
1 Shared Account - P Bary, S Pasquier
2 Frine - C Laffon-Parias, G Mosse
3 Berlin Berlin - M Klug, A De Vries
4 Abys - Mme P Brandt, A Hamelin
5 Euphrasia - J Murphy, G Carroll
6 Valdiyana - A de Royer Dupre, T Jarnet*
7 Zarshana - A De Royer Dupre, C Soumillon*
8 Savanne - A Fabre, R Marchelli
9 Mayhem - P Sogorb, O Peslier
10 Scighera - T Kodama, T Thulliez
11 All At Sea - A Fabre, J Eyquem
12 Your Game - A Fabre, F Prat

16:15 Prix Dollar (Gp 2, 1950m)
1 Cirrus Des Aigles - Mme C Barande-Barbe, C Soumillon
2 Smoking Sun - P Bary, S Pasquier
3 Fractional - A Fabre, R Marchelli
4 Pilote - A Fabre, O Peslier*
5 Hippy - E Libaud, T Jarnet
6 Calling Out - J Gauvin, G Benoist
7 Planetaire - C Laffon-Parias, F Prat*

16:45 Arabian Trophy Des Juments (Gp 1, Pure Arabians, 2000m) – 9 declared
17:15 Grand Handicap Du Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club (H'cap, 1950m) – 14 declared
17:50 Prix Horse Racing Abroad (Claimer, 1600m) – 18 declared, 1 non runner
18:25 Prix Barzan (H'cap, 1950m) – 13 declared
 
Tapestry and Taghrooda were well clear at York. Not sure the latter had a bad day, maybe she just got beat by a better filly on the day, who finally showed her true form. Tapestry has to be interesting at the price.
 
The draw is released. Here's a selection of runners.

Ruler of The World - 4
Al Kazeem - 7
Gold Ship - 2
Just A Way - 14
Treve - 3
Ectot - 10
Avenir Certain - 1
Kingston hill - 20
Taghroodha - 15
Harp Star - 12
Tapestry - 8
 
No St Leger winner has gone on to win Arc in the same year and the Arc has never been won from stall 20. Good luck to Kingston Hill.
 
Forecast Paris area is for heavy rain showers Saturday evening, otherwise fine weather. (Source: BBC).
 
Is AOB effectively saying that Chicquita, Ruler of the World and Tapestry all have better chances of winning the Arc than Australia would have? Interesting that JOB rides the first of those 3.

I can't remember the last time I saw any rain so not sure how Treve could have done all the work needed, unless CH is able to water her gallops. Admittedly I'm 2.5 hours from Paris but if the race was here I suspect Treve would not run. Hopefully CH has been watering her gallops and the Arc track has been watered - little/no rain forecast. If she takes her chance with no soft in the description I reckon it will be her last race, win or lose.

PS. Interesting contrast in weather predictions Swanny.
 
The annual debate about the relevance of the draw in the Arc has started again. How can it matter in a race over a mile and a half?

Here is the field in draw order with the market changes:

Saddle No. Name (Weight) Jockey, Trainer – betting
16. Avenir Certain (54.5kg) C Lemaire, J-C Rouget – 9/1 from 8/1
06. Gold Ship (59.5kg) N Yokoyama, N Sugai – 12/1
08. Treve (58kg) T Jarnet, Mme C Head-Maarek – 10/1
01. Flintshire (59.5kg) M Guyon, A Fabre – 25/1 from 33/1
17. Dolniya (54.5kg) C Soumillon, A De Royer Dupre – 40/1
02. Ruler Of The World (59.5kg) L Dettori, A O'Brien – 16/1
03. Al Kazeem (59.5kg) J Doyle, R Charlton – 66/1
20. Tapestry (54.5kg) R Moore, A O'Brien – 14/1 from 16/1
13. Prince Gibraltar (56kg) J Eyquem, J-C Rouget – 33/1
11. Ectot (56kg) G Benoist, E Lellouche – 6/1 from 13/2
12. Montviron (56kg) C Stefan, E Lellouche – 250/1
19. Harp Star (54.5kg) Y Kawada, H Matsuda – 8/1
05. Spiritjim (59.5kg) S Pasquier, P Bary – 50/1 from 40/1
07. Just A Way (59.5kg) Y Fukunaga, N Sugai – 8/1 from 7/1
18. Taghrooda (54.5kg) P Hanagan, J Gosden – 6/1 from 5/1
10. Siljan's Saga (58kg) P Boudot, J Gauvin – 150/1
15. Free Port Lux (56kg) M Barzalona, F Head – 100/1 from 80/1
09. Chicquita (58kg) J O'Brien, A O'Brien – 40/1 from 33/1
04. Ivanhowe (59.5kg) W Buick, J Carvalho – 20/1 from 16/1
14. Kingston Hill (56kg) A Atzeni, R Varian – 20/1 from 16/1


That makes life hard for Taghrooda unless she really is the class act in the line-up; and does not suggest that Kingston Hill will be completing the elusive St Leger-Arc double. Ectot has the ten box with his pacemaker right next door, which may prove to be a good race position. Is the one box good news for Avenir Certain as she will have a wall of horses to work her way through? The draw has proved a mixed bag for the visitors from the Land of the Rising Sun.
 
Ron said:
Is AOB effectively saying that Chicquita, Ruler of the World and Tapestry all have better chances of winning the Arc than Australia would have? Interesting that JOB rides the first of those 3.

I can't remember the last time I saw any rain so not sure how Treve could have done all the work needed, unless CH is able to water her gallops. Admittedly I'm 2.5 hours from Paris but if the race was here I suspect Treve would not run. Hopefully CH has been watering her gallops and the Arc track has been watered - little/no rain forecast. If she takes her chance with no soft in the description I reckon it will be her last race, win or lose.

PS. Interesting contrast in weather predictions Swanny.
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I honestly think that they have chickened out with Australia and they had made that call months ago in the expectation that it would be soft ground. The fact that half of Ruler Of The World was sold to the Qataris has managed to get Frankie the ride even though allowing Joseph to keep the ride had been part of the deal. As Tapestry was a late addition, Aidan made sure his son got a ride on Chicquita knowing that the “best jockey in the world” was available for the filly he won on at York.

The seven day forecast from France clearly was not much good as it had blazing sunshine all weekend. The Friday forecast for Britain shows a band of rain sweeping across on Saturday and the tail end of that front will cross Paris late in the afternoon.
 
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