Forecast Paris area is for heavy rain showers Saturday evening, otherwise fine weather. (Source: BBC).
Out of all jockeys the opinion of Ryan Moore is one I have most respect for and his Arc thoughts are interesting. Basically says Taghrooda's form ain't up to it, and it took her an absolute age to nail those 2 hounds in the King George. I think he's right, she won't be winning. He feels Ectot would have DEFINITELY been beaten by Adelaide with a clear run the last day. He hints Ectot may be running on fumes at the end. He likes one of the Japs, Harp Star for it. Anyone reckon a complete outsider will take this and never win another race again?! It all looks a much of muchness to me.
In an attempt to get off the fence, I think Harp Star looks the value in the race but I'll wait until I've seen the going, heard all the interviews and seen them going down to the start before I have my final guess.
"I know 3yo fillies like Zarkava have won this race in recent years, but I just wonder about Treve." "Most people thought I was unlucky in the Niel but don't under-estimate the winner Kizuna" "The Prix Niel was the least visually impressive of the Longchamp trials, but I think it had the more substance" Ryan should stick to being a world class jockey and stop putting punters away on Betfair. He should have won the Neil last year, got outclassed this year. Agree with him on Prince Gibraltar being a big price.
Archers, he feels Tapestry and Taghrooda have similar claims but he feels that's an each way claim. Taghrooda isn't the right favourite in his eyes. Think most people looking objectively at it would agree. And there's Boris everyone
Boris did you know Ectot was pricewise's original pick for this?! 50/1 too Should have been a case of take it, take it now
Tagroodah has won me loads this year so will be backing her tomorrow, not with any great confidence especially with the unkind draw but can't really see anything that is certain to win or even to be placed. Australia would have won this and can't believe he's not running.
True but Longchamp's loss is very much Ascot's gain. You're looking at Australia v Free Eagle v Cirrus v The Grey Gatsby. Race of the flat season that one looks.
I said it last year and was wrong but i will say it again, the draw plays a massive part at Longchamp. I've put a line through everything drawn in double figures. Tomorrow, I will be backing, Treve, Tapestry and Dolniya. I've had a little on Ectot already. All small punts for a bit of interest.
Didn't Treve win from Tags stall last year? Draw stats are interesting as they flip flop all over the place.
She did Nass. That's the point I was making. The Arc trend for low drawn horses is strong though. There will always be the odd anomaly.
Not just her though was it? Others came from high. Key is picking best horse in race rather than draw for me. Unlike the Abbaye. No rain as of yet.
Actually, in the last 12 years, only 2 winners have come from a stall higher than 9. Horses don't tend to win it if drawn 15 or higher with only one winner coming from those berths in the last 20 odd years (Treve i think). At the same time, stall 1 has historically been a bad place to break from.
Finding it hard not to back Ectot with all the talk about it on here, however i am going to leave it alone and my darts have landed on: Treve 10/1 & Spiritjim 40/1 both ew and rev fc
go back as far as the form book goes, look at the places and you will see the draw is almost irrelevant, go back 13 years and sakhee won half the track from 15 Treve, Sea The Stars, Zarkava, Danedream, Hurricane Run, Dalakhani, Sindaar, Montjeu, Peintre Celebre, Hellisio would all have won from anywhere, if they were drawn low its merely a coincidence orfevre threw the race away from 18 a couple of years ago, he had the race in the bag because he was the class of the field arc winners dont get beaten by the draw, its as simple as that, you either have the class or you dont the draw in the arc is up there with the fresh horse for the aintree juvenile
Hanagan will be in the winners enclosure tomorrow but it might not be with taghrooda. I fancy Flintshire for the record,
