Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe - Sunday 5th October, 2014

I assumed wrongly it was CDG - I just put Manchester to Paris and only the other day did I realise they'd drop us miles out the city.

Hire a car and not sample the local alcoholic beverages, are you mad

 

For those of you who might be thinking of backing Taghrooda in the Arc, you might be interested to know that she's had a decent blowout today. She was secretly shipped off for an 1100m pipe opener that will set her in great stead if they decide to go to France. I don't know how it happened, but her owners managed to get her into a Maiden at a place called Kilmore in Victoria. Taghrooda was most impressive in winning the second race on the program.

 

what race is being run in Instanbul?

 

Tagroodah for me also, I think you have to forgive her the last run on account of what JG has said since and although trainers do often make excuses for their champions I feel this is genuine. I think she will win well.

 

Having looked on France Galop’s website, the current running order for this weekend (times are local) is as follows:

Saturday 4th October

14:30 Prix Chaudenay (Gp 2, 3000m)
15:08 Grand Handicap Du Qatar Racing & Equestrian Club (H'cap, 1950m)
15:40 Prix Du Royallieu (Gp 2, 2500m)
16:10 Prix Dollar (Gp 2, 1950m)
16:40 Arabian Trophy Des Juments (Gp 1, Pure Arabians, 2000m)
17:15 Prix Daniel Wildenstein (Gp 2, 1600m)
17:50 Prix Horse Racing Abroad (Claimer, 1600m)
18:25 Prix Barzan (H'cap, 1950m)


Sunday 5th October

14:00 Prix De L'Abbaye De Longchamp (Gp 1, 1000m)
14:35 Prix Marcel Boussac (Gp 1, 1600m)
15:10 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Gp 1, 1400m)
15:45 Prix De L'Opera (Gp 1, 2000m)
16:30 Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe (Gp 1, 2400m)
17:15 Arabian World Cup (Gp 1, Pure Arabians, 2000m)
17:50 Prix De La Foret (Gp 1, 1400m)
18:20 Prix Du Cadran (Gp 1, 4000m)
18:50 Grand Handicap Des Milers (H'cap, 1600m)


Be advised that they have been known to change the running order after the final declarations have been made if there are small fields for some races; however, I think you can be pretty certain that the Arc will be 15:30 BST.

 

It is bordering on laughable that a dual Derby winner by Galileo out of Ouija Board is not going to turn up in a once in a moon good ground Arc because he "doesn't need 12f". Arc winners usually need a turn of foot and the idea that he has too much speed is absurd. He showed a glimpse at Epsom of what he could have been capable of over that trip if ridden with restraint and using his turn of foot to put middle distance races to bed.

If you can't go for an Arc these days because you are too worried about him being a stallion to advertise as being good enough to be Group1 miler as well as Derby winner, then you might as well give up. I don't think it is anything to do with Aidan O'Brien either. Like Formula1, flat racing is no longer a sport. It is a commercial nonsense.

Aside from that, I think Harp Star wins this because she is better than Kizuna, will receive more weight than he did when running well in 4th against Treve and Orfevre last year, and has the tactical speed for this race that will get her out of trouble. She stays the trip and is by Deep Impact out of a Falbrav mare. Treve is cooked, Australia isn't going, Taghrooda lacks the gears, Ectot beat nothing in the trial, Just A Way beat trees in Dubai and Ruler Of The World isn't good enough.

10/1 on the exchanges looks solid value and whilst collaborating formlines on these Japanese horses is tough, there is just something that looks different about this Japanese challenger.

 

Harp Star wasnt on my radar but I had a look at the Japs and id say she could just be the one for the forecast although that position is pretty wide open.

The colt will devastate them.

 

Lellouche likes the fact that he does not do a tap at home as this means he saves it all for the racecourse. I asked Lellouche about extraneous factors such as the draw and he dismissed them all saying this horse is the real deal. Calmly he told me this horse is better than Helissio was and is so good factors such as the draw will make no difference.

As I said when I seen it.

You all still have time to repent and get on.

 

You're over thinking it. If they thought Australia had a chance in the Arc, they'd run him.

 

For what it's worth I'd go with Boris and Ectot.

 

I know Treve hasn't appeared to be the same animal as last year but surely it can't go un backed at 10/1!

 

If the item in today’s Racing Post can be taken as ‘official’ confirmation, then Joseph O’Brien is riding Chicquita and Frankie is retaining the ride on Ruler Of The World.

No mention of Australia so it looks like speculative punters are holding something to light their fireworks with in a month.

With no word about Tapestry being supplemented, it looks like just two starting for Ballydoyle, which will really hack off the friend of mine who was given a tip for it last week.

 

I think that maybe the Prix Vermeille may turn out to be a better race than it looked at the time. The fact that it wasn't Treve's ground, she was rusty and finished fastest of all in a slowly run race, without being pressed, indicates to me that she was being saved for the Arc with the jockey being instructed in no uncertain terms to give her a gentle return to the track. Had the going been softish for some time(inc Arc day) then I would be siding with Treve without any doubt; but I can't see how she could have been made fully race fit on suitable ground when there has been no rain for ages. Her fate will be known early in the race if not before. I hope I'm wrong but I feel the weather over the last month or so has not been in her favour. If she doesn't like racing on firm ground, she won't have enjoyed training on it either. I don't know what CH's training facilities are like so for me Treve is a risk. I still think she'll give it a good go and will probably manage a place if the word soft is in the going.

So what can beat her? Maybe one from Japan? There are 3 exciting 3yo fillies but unfortunately we don't know if one 2 of them will stay the 12f in a truly run race. And, of course we have the exciting 3yo colt Ectot plus Sea The Moon's conqueror Ivanhowe and the 2 Japanese 5yos, one guaranteed to stay and the other one not so.

Although the field is not looking the race it did a couple of months ago, it is still going to take some winning. I still think Treve is the one to beat, if sh'es fit and gets her ground, but I have a feeling that with those 2 ifs there could be one or two just too good on the day.

I think the finish will involve Harp Star, Ectot, Treve, Taghrooda and Gold Ship. I would love to see Taghrooda win as she is British and a favouite of the Forum, If not I would like to see Gold Ship because he is by the same sire as the very likable Orfevre, Treve to prove she is as good as ever, Ectot because he is a descendant of Ribot and Harp Star because she is a grand daughter of another favourite Falbrav. Failing any of those I would prefer to see one of the unbeaten (this year) contenders stepping up in distance. So hopefully I will enjoy the race whoever wins. I certainly won't be backing in it.

 

Four paragraphs to sit on the fence, Ron ? Come on:
Boris knows it
Bob knows it
I know it
Elie knows it
The horse probably knows it.

Ectot will win the Arc in third gear, smoking a Gitane and whistling La Vie en Rose. There's still some 7-1 in the darker corners of the market. Il est temps de se lever et de parier comme les hommes.

 

It was a real surprise to see the Arc field reduced to just nineteen at the first forfeit stage. The betting suggested that it was one of the most open renewals in years but quite a few names have defected and with no word of possible good supplementary entries (Tapestry still in the betting but no word on her), there may not be a maximum field lining up. It looks like Ectot’s unofficial pacemaker will get in if two do not join tomorrow.

The OddsChecker best odds read like this:

5/1 Taghrooda
13/2 Ectot
7/1 Just A Way
8/1 Avenir Certain, Harp Star
10/1 Treve
12/1 Gold Ship
16/1 Ivanhowe, Kingston Hill, Ruler Of The World, Tapestry
33/1 Flintshire, Prince Gibraltar, Chicquita

 

Is it me or is Flintshere too big at 33/1 is Fabre only runner and he knows how to get him ready also we have never really seen how good or not he is