Off Topic Politics Thread

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"Four weeks into the Iran war, and here’s what we know: no contingency plan for what happens if the Strait of Hormuz closes, an assumption - based on Israeli intelligence - that Iranian protesters would rise up and topple the regime (they haven’t), and boots that were definitely, absolutely never going to touch the ground now hovering very close to the ground.
But the real revelation? There is nobody in that White House who can say no to Donald Trump. And that’s not an accident, they were hired precisely because they wouldn’t. The entry requirement for this administration was believing Trump was robbed in 2020."
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Watch Page 94, the Private Eye podcast: https://youtu.be/goeCQ8ZM2f4
 
StJabbo1 said:
HIGNFY
"The UK will host a summit on clearing mines in the Strait of Hormuz, after finding a suitable way to explain the plan to President Trump."
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Christ that takes me back to my school days!
 
I find it quite staggering how Iran has had it's leadership assassinated and it's large scale military hardware destroyed yet is sill holding the world to ransom. The proposed peace plan mooted by Trump has not only been rejected but over-written with terms and conditions which would make Iran stronger. The ability for Iran to put it's knee across the throat of the supply of oil means that Trump has been far stronger than expected and whilst the regime might be unpopular in Iran, the US has totally under-estimated just how embedded it is with the Basij having over one million members.

I am not sure where this will end although I think that the effect on oil supply will accelerate the drive for other forms of power other than fossil fuels and I feel that many other countries will be emboldened that the combined force of Israel and the US cannot break a country like Iran. I cannot see America sanctioning a full blown assault by land yet I can see attempts by American paratroopers coming to the same kind of conclusions are in 1979. This will transpire to be America's answer to the Suez crisis and precipitate many other countries challenging American power. Rather than making America great again, I think Trump has seen the US appear greatly diminished as a global power.

You can admire, to a agree, Trump's wish to crush the Iranian regime but going to war in these circumstances without either a mandate or a plan made no sense. It is not difficult to see why even hawkish former presidents resisted the temptation. This is probably the Iranian regime's finest hour since 1979 and the fact that they now believe that they can negotiate for reparations and the ownership of the Straights of Hormuz is something that I expect the likes of China and Russia to support. In a single action, Trump has let Putin off the hook, cemented the rule of the Ayatollahs in Iran and guaranteed the supremacy of China as the defining super power in 21st century. Is Trump's action one of the worst bits of foreign policy was a western power ever ?
 
Ian Thumwood said:
I find it quite staggering how Iran has had it's leadership assassinated and it's large scale military hardware destroyed yet is sill holding the world to ransom. The proposed peace plan mooted by Trump has not only been rejected but over-written with terms and conditions which would make Iran stronger. The ability for Iran to put it's knee across the throat of the supply of oil means that Trump has been far stronger than expected and whilst the regime might be unpopular in Iran, the US has totally under-estimated just how embedded it is with the Basij having over one million members.

I am not sure where this will end although I think that the effect on oil supply will accelerate the drive for other forms of power other than fossil fuels and I feel that many other countries will be emboldened that the combined force of Israel and the US cannot break a country like Iran. I cannot see America sanctioning a full blown assault by land yet I can see attempts by American paratroopers coming to the same kind of conclusions are in 1979. This will transpire to be America's answer to the Suez crisis and precipitate many other countries challenging American power. Rather than making America great again, I think Trump has seen the US appear greatly diminished as a global power.

You can admire, to a agree, Trump's wish to crush the Iranian regime but going to war in these circumstances without either a mandate or a plan made no sense. It is not difficult to see why even hawkish former presidents resisted the temptation. This is probably the Iranian regime's finest hour since 1979 and the fact that they now believe that they can negotiate for reparations and the ownership of the Straights of Hormuz is something that I expect the likes of China and Russia to support. In a single action, Trump has let Putin off the hook, cemented the rule of the Ayatollahs in Iran and guaranteed the supremacy of China as the defining super power in 21st century. Is Trump's action one of the worst bits of foreign policy was a western power ever ?
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Geography is a huge reason. Even Trump can't move the Strait of Hormuz.
 
tomw24 said:
Geography is a huge reason. Even Trump can't move the Strait of Hormuz.
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Yes , I agree. However, Trump has not managed to wipe out the maritime drones on the Strait and as long as Iran can menace these waters, America will lose. It is so uncoordinated and quite staggering that a country with allegedly no effective leadership can constantly out-fox the Americans. I was reading on line at breakfast that the leadership is now fragmented across Iran and more embedded in the regions beyond Tehran. It feels like America and Israel has destroyed the old leadership but that the regime was so organised it cannot only withstand this, it also has a younger and more capable new leadership.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
I find it quite staggering how Iran has had it's leadership assassinated and it's large scale military hardware destroyed yet is sill holding the world to ransom. The proposed peace plan mooted by Trump has not only been rejected but over-written with terms and conditions which would make Iran stronger. The ability for Iran to put it's knee across the throat of the supply of oil means that Trump has been far stronger than expected and whilst the regime might be unpopular in Iran, the US has totally under-estimated just how embedded it is with the Basij having over one million members.

I am not sure where this will end although I think that the effect on oil supply will accelerate the drive for other forms of power other than fossil fuels and I feel that many other countries will be emboldened that the combined force of Israel and the US cannot break a country like Iran. I cannot see America sanctioning a full blown assault by land yet I can see attempts by American paratroopers coming to the same kind of conclusions are in 1979. This will transpire to be America's answer to the Suez crisis and precipitate many other countries challenging American power. Rather than making America great again, I think Trump has seen the US appear greatly diminished as a global power.

You can admire, to a agree, Trump's wish to crush the Iranian regime but going to war in these circumstances without either a mandate or a plan made no sense. It is not difficult to see why even hawkish former presidents resisted the temptation. This is probably the Iranian regime's finest hour since 1979 and the fact that they now believe that they can negotiate for reparations and the ownership of the Straights of Hormuz is something that I expect the likes of China and Russia to support. In a single action, Trump has let Putin off the hook, cemented the rule of the Ayatollahs in Iran and guaranteed the supremacy of China as the defining super power in 21st century. Is Trump's action one of the worst bits of foreign policy was a western power ever ?
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The thing is, it's not staggering or surprising at all. It's all been entirely predictable to anyone who had thought about this before, or who had any regional understanding. Unfortunately we appear not to have had that, we have Trump and his lackeys.
 
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Le Tissier's Laces said:
The thing is, it's not staggering or surprising at all. It's all been entirely predictable to anyone who had thought about this before, or who had any regional understanding. Unfortunately we appear not to have had that, we have Trump and his lackeys.
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Let’s not use “we”, this is Trump & his lackeys alone

Sun Tzu- ‘Know your enemy’
Fot Trump re Netanyahu we need to add ‘Know your friend’

Not to mention ’Winning without fighting’

Trump is an idiot
 
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