Off Topic Politics Thread

[Gregm1988]

Here's why it's happening, it all makes sense now. What the actual ****?

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So they failed their goal on minute one? Interesting

 

[ChilcoSaint]

So they failed their goal on minute one? Interesting

That tweet is dated yesterday! The way this is being spun in Russia is breathtaking.

 

[Gregm1988]

My academic background is IR theory and political economy, and one of the beautiful/incredibly depressing things about those fields is that they're non-falsifiable; there will never come a point where someone has to say 'huh, this invalidates my entire worldview'. The same academics have the same arguments via papers, symposiums and the letters section of Foreign Affairs in perpetuity, which is part of the reason I chose not to remain in academia (that and the prospect of paying my student loans by selling my organs while working as an adjunct for 10 years in the vain hope of getting a permanent position).

Mearsheimer is a very intelligent and influential academic, but his theory of great power politics is by necessity amoral: it presumes that a couple powers call the shots, and everyone else either cozies up to them, gets used by them, or aims to knock them off. The world that Mearsheimer sees would be a truly awful place to live, and while you can get by on those assumptions in theoretical debate, Chotiner made him squirm by bringing in the real-life implications: if Ukraine is by virtue of geography a natural pawn of Russia, what does that mean for the Ukrainian people who are functionally deprived of any sort of autonomy? The answer is "well, yeah, if they want to have autonomy then they should become more powerful than their suzerain", but that's really difficult even for Mearsheimer to articulate given that you're effectively consigning a few million people to permanently serve a master that has historically treated them like chattel.

I finally finished that article and he did more than make Mearsheimer squirm. He tied him up into complete knots and put a nice bow on him

The guys was contradicting himself throughout in his desperation to simultaneously blame the US and absolve Russia of blame. The author even seemed to give up on pointing out the contradictions and hypocrisy after a while. Or perhaps they were just being nice

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

Russia now doing a reverse-Dunkirk and using motorhomes, rickety cars and vans to try and resupply their lines.

They've got all the fancy equipment, but their logistics planning has been utterly horrendous.

 

[Schad]

Putin will not occupy Ukraine as you imagine but I think he will raise the country. There will not be much infrastructure by the time he has finished. There will cetainly not be many cities left.

I have to admit that I am shocked at the support the invasion appears to have amongst the Russians. It does not bode well and I am not sure how the crisis will be resolved..

He may do that. The question is: to what end? It accomplishes no strategic goals. It requires that a whole lot of Russians die to accomplish no strategic goals, because you will have a lot of troops in largely static positions, and a lot of supply convoys to maintain them. And it would ensure that Russia's economy is utterly buried.

It would obviously be a horrific result for the Ukrainian people, and perhaps that becomes the end goal at some point out of pure spite. Leveling Ukraine simply to level it would be the sort of victory even Pyrrhus would find a bit costly, though.

 

[Schad]

Russia now doing a reverse-Dunkirk and using motorhomes, rickety cars and vans to try and resupply their lines.

They've got all the fancy equipment, but their logistics planning has been utterly horrendous.

I can't see any problems with moving an actual train full of armored personnel carriers, light tanks and self-propelled guns that has been filmed before it even leaves Belarus:

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[MorgansBitOnTheSchneid]

I can't see any problems with moving an actual train full of armored personnel carriers, light tanks and self-propelled guns that has been filmed before it even leaves Belarus:

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I know some kids that wouldn't think twice about chucking a couple of breeze blocks on the tracks to derail that.....

 

[Schad]

I know some kids that wouldn't think twice about chucking a couple of breeze blocks on the tracks to derail that.....

If the Russians are dumb enough to actually move it into the country (and it's possible that they're just moving it to a staging area in Belarus), it's hard to imagine a better target for a drone strike, and the Russians have struggled mightily to deal with Ukraine's relatively small number of combat drones. It's a train; it ain't going to change direction on you, and hitting any point of the train kinda makes the rest of the train stop doing train things. But with convoys of armour straight-up running out of fuel before every actually accomplishing anything, they might be that desperate.

 

[Archers Road]

That tweet is dated yesterday! The way this is being spun in Russia is breathtaking.

Ministry of Truth, see Orwell for details

 

[Osvaldorama]

Ministry of Truth, see Orwell for details

Exactly. And the problem is Putin has **** down access to information, so even the ones that would be anti-war can’t organise.

it’s an absolute **** show. Russia is about to absolutely collapse. If I was there I’d be doing whatever I could get out right now.

 

[Gregm1988]

Exactly. And the problem is Putin has **** down access to information, so even the ones that would be anti-war can’t organise.

it’s an absolute **** show. Russia is about to absolutely collapse. If I was there I’d be doing whatever I could get out right now.

About to absolutely collapse? What makes you say this? Just intrigued

If comms are down and the propaganda is in full steam and protests clamped down on ruthlessly is a collapse truly imminent?

 

[StJabbo1]

Exactly. And the problem is Putin has **** down access to information, so even the ones that would be anti-war can’t organise.

it’s an absolute **** show. Russia is about to absolutely collapse. If I was there I’d be doing whatever I could get out right now.

About to absolutely collapse? What makes you say this? Just intrigued

If comms are down and the propaganda is in full steam and protests clamped down on ruthlessly is a collapse truly imminent?

An economic collapse will have ripple effects given international interdependencies, supplies of wheat, oil, gas and minerals and more. A collapsing Russia could lead to a catastrophic outcome.
https://www.theatlantic.com/newslet...putin-economy-sanctions-swift-fallout/623330/
I think but not sureTelegram and other media platforms are still available in Russia but a digital iron curtain is possible.
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/07/tech/russia-internet-facebook-block-iron-curtain/index.html

 

[Osvaldorama]

About to absolutely collapse? What makes you say this? Just intrigued

If comms are down and the propaganda is in full steam and protests clamped down on ruthlessly is a collapse truly imminent?

Basically their entire stock market is going to zero as soon as it opens. If it ever does.

Shell, Exxon, Gazprom etc are closing down and removing themselves from Russia. Even if the war ends right now it would still take a long time to untangle the mess from this and get oil production back on track. Not to mention all of the western companies pulling their services from Russia.

The entire Russian economy will collapse. Now the thing is; they may have enough gold and resources to create a new one. But who will trust their markets? Would you put any of your money there whilst Putin is still in charge?

There will definitely be short & long term consequences from this, we are just waiting to see how bad they are.

Their media can spin it however they like, but they can’t escape the reality. The sanctions may make things worse to be honest. But I do respect the EU/US for going strong and trying to stop the war machine. It’s all we can do.

 

[berlinersaint]

So here’s a jolly picture of 3 blokes having a glass of wine at a nice villa in Umbria. The 3 are Rupert Murdoch, Evgeny Lebedev (the son of a KGB officer who Johnson has recently given a seat in the House of Lords), and the one in the shoes dying to have dogs with diarrhoea **** on them is our very own Nigel Farage, who is going to solve the energy crisis by fracking up the entire UK.

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One important point to add, that is an old picture and not relevant with whats going on now

During the brief period after WWII, there was a phenomenon called the social consensus in the U.K. and throughout Western Europe. It was accepted across the political spectrum, that one of the key roles of government was to ensure decent pay and working conditions, housing, health, and education for all it’s citizens. Margaret Thatcher’s government destroyed all that on the alter of the free market; she believed, with the ardour of a religious fanatic, that unregulated capitalism would naturally provide for all the needs of an entrepreneurial nation. Social housing and public utilities where sold off, an “internal market” was created to monetise health and education. The rich got exponentially richer, a few working class people also gained, many fell behind.

When the country finally decided to give Labour another chance, Tony Blair had largely bought in to Thatcher’s revolutionary ideology, so not much changed, really; the free market remained king, the rich continued to get filthy rich, some money was directed to support the very poorest, but the principle of “every man for himself” still ruled. Now we are reaping the whirlwind of over 40 years of economic free for all. We are basically a pirate economy with a shrinking legacy of public service just about holding it all together.

Nicely put Archers.

 

[thereisonlyoneno7]

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Just got round to watching it all. It brought a huge lump to my throat if I am honest. The innocence of someone so young in a dire situation is so touching.

To misquote another song, you can see that Children are our future teach them well and let them lead the way, let them show all the beauty inside.

 

[StJabbo1]

Heartwarming to see the response from people of all nations offering shelter to those in need. As ever it's those least able to do so who pay the price whether it's the displaced people or, so far as we understand, the young Russians dying not knowing where they are or why.

 

[Schad]

So, this isn't going well.

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[StJabbo1]

Lying bastards.

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[Gregm1988]

Lying bastards.

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A resigning matter ? That is taking a bit far. Unless by “normal” they mean “normal in the 19th century” where people pretty much only had their limited principles to stand on due to the way elections worked

 

[StJabbo1]

Lying bastards.

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A resigning matter ? That is taking a bit far. Unless by “normal” they mean “normal in the 19th century” where people pretty much only had their limited principles to stand on due to the way elections worked

PMQs an opportunity to highlight the lies and incompetence of those responsible for the shambles that's described as 'world beating'. I know calling people out for lying isn't allowed in the house but there must be a form of words that makes it clear.