Off Topic Politics Thread
- Thread starter ChilcoSaint
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I'm afraid it's not that simple. We will leave if nothing is done positively to stop it. Parliament can pass any motions it wants but if the executive takes no action, we cease to be a member of the EU by the action of international law on Friday 29th March at 11pm.
I'd like to think that was impossible but the ******ed lunatics running the asylum have already been found in contempt of Parliament and have relentlessly kicked the deal down the road to increase the pressure to vote for May's pitiful deal. No Deal could well happen. Betfair currently has it as around a 14% chance. Those are similar odds to the chance Brighton has of winning away at Palace today, so not really long enough.
What a ****ing triumph!
Vin
I listened to someone on a podcast the other day. A mate of his runs a company that imports from Germany and his supplier has stopped supplying him. They have said that they can't take orders for delivery after 29th. They have no idea under what terms of trade he'll be delivering the goods so they can't legally sign a contract.
The guy employs half a dozen people and reckons he'll have to liquidate the company in a month or so.
Meanwhile in Westminster the PM and the tosspots surrounding her think this is all a big fun game of university debating club. The ERG (if they gave a tinker's cuss) would tell us he's running his company badly and falsely blaming Brexit. Our resident clown will be on shortly to tell us it's because of diesel.
What a ****ing triumph!
Vin
The guy employs half a dozen people and reckons he'll have to liquidate the company in a month or so.
Meanwhile in Westminster the PM and the tosspots surrounding her think this is all a big fun game of university debating club. The ERG (if they gave a tinker's cuss) would tell us he's running his company badly and falsely blaming Brexit. Our resident clown will be on shortly to tell us it's because of diesel.
What a ****ing triumph!
Vin
I met a group of old colleagues yesterday at the funeral of another colleague. These guys are working in a company which imports around 90% of the components used to make the products and then exports over 75% globally with around 50% of that going to the EU. At the moment, they can produce up until around the end of the first week in April, then they may run out of components, depending on whether anything gets held up. Their current component suppliers have agreed to continue shipping for the next 2 weeks, then it’ll all be on hold. They cannot produce anything for the EU market from around next week, as they don’t know what paperwork needs to be done to send it.
Meanwhile, as you say, May and her merry band of ****ers fiddle around blaming the EU, the <ahem> “opposition” (I don’t believe we have any) do bugger all to stop it and their, mainly European, workforce are seriously worried and many are thinking of leaving.
Luckily, in a way, it’s only cosmetics they’re producing. Imagine if they were producing life saving drugs
What a ****ing triumph, indeed.
Bloody whinging remoaners. All this company has to do is look to introduce some new TLA (three letter acronym) protocols to fundamentally shift the focus of its through put while diminishing its costs through a reduction in dependancy on tariff-free goods while at the same time introducing some stringent bollocks that mentions WTO rules and they'll be fine. I think that's what the ERG say, but I could be wrong.
Where's the ****ing exit?
Theresa is off to Strasbourg for a final fruitless bash at rewording the backstop. We can look forward to some sort of ERG-driven nonsense being served up in the morning.
Sorry for the dull, detailed nature of this post but it's a crucial moment in the Brexit debacle and I'm afraid it's all a bit legalistic from here on in. I think it's worth a read but then I would, wouldn't I?
The BBC is reporting that May's now looking for an A50 extension to 24th May, which is the day after the start of the European elections. Sounds innocuous, eh?
Well, if we don't take part in those elections we absolutely cannot, under current rules, remain in the EU after 1st July as it would render the EU Parliament improperly formed; Under EU law all member states must be represented.
What that means is that by doing that, May would be forcing MPs to a point where leaving is inevitable and coming up shortly so it would be her deal or Crash Brexit.
She's bereft of support, mendacious and weak but this is a killer strategy for her.
If this happens, MPs will be left in the position where anyone who doesn't want her offering but abhors No Deal will be obliged to vote for her dreadful deal.
The only thing that might save us from her awful deal is if the EU refuses her the short extension and offers only a much longer extension with an insistence that we take part in the European elections. The idea would be to force the UK government to actually act like a government and seek consensus in the House of Commons rather than having the executive act like spoiled brats trying to force their decision through without actually trying to garner support. So the one thing that may save our democracy is the horrible, undemocratic EU. Weird.
The other alternative would be MPs (or even, God forbid, Corbyn) showing some backbone and standing up to the government. However, hell will freeze over first. They seem keen to stand doing nothing, watch and leave it just to happen, the imbeciles.
Still, what a ****ing triumph, eh?
Vin
The BBC is reporting that May's now looking for an A50 extension to 24th May, which is the day after the start of the European elections. Sounds innocuous, eh?
Well, if we don't take part in those elections we absolutely cannot, under current rules, remain in the EU after 1st July as it would render the EU Parliament improperly formed; Under EU law all member states must be represented.
What that means is that by doing that, May would be forcing MPs to a point where leaving is inevitable and coming up shortly so it would be her deal or Crash Brexit.
She's bereft of support, mendacious and weak but this is a killer strategy for her.
If this happens, MPs will be left in the position where anyone who doesn't want her offering but abhors No Deal will be obliged to vote for her dreadful deal.
The only thing that might save us from her awful deal is if the EU refuses her the short extension and offers only a much longer extension with an insistence that we take part in the European elections. The idea would be to force the UK government to actually act like a government and seek consensus in the House of Commons rather than having the executive act like spoiled brats trying to force their decision through without actually trying to garner support. So the one thing that may save our democracy is the horrible, undemocratic EU. Weird.
The other alternative would be MPs (or even, God forbid, Corbyn) showing some backbone and standing up to the government. However, hell will freeze over first. They seem keen to stand doing nothing, watch and leave it just to happen, the imbeciles.
Still, what a ****ing triumph, eh?
Vin
Politics is the art of negotiation and compromise. Given this particulat juggernaut is beyond both of these, our politicians havegenerally frozen and are staring into the headlights. May is zig-zagging up the road and occasionally looking back and finding said juggernaut keeps getting closer. Eventually she will turn to find it right on top of her ... SPLAT!
Not a very intelligent response but it amuses me a bit
I can't see a no deal happening, I can't see May's deal happening, therefore we end up staying, but surely that can't happen!
I can't see how anyone can stand up to anyone as there is no consensus anywhere
The Brexiteers, Remainers, Labour, Tory rebels don't actually agree with each other within their own groups enough to stand up to anyone and the govt is so split it can't really be stood up to.
Of course there are Factions that do agree with each other but they are too small to carry any credibility
Not a very intelligent response but it amuses me a bit
I can't see a no deal happening, I can't see May's deal happening, therefore we end up staying, but surely that can't happen!
I can't see how anyone can stand up to anyone as there is no consensus anywhere
The Brexiteers, Remainers, Labour, Tory rebels don't actually agree with each other within their own groups enough to stand up to anyone and the govt is so split it can't really be stood up to.
Of course there are Factions that do agree with each other but they are too small to carry any credibility
I'd very much expect that the EU will demand a longer-term extension, if for no other reason beyond the complete improbability of a deal being reached by late May.
And if the UK remains in, it should meet all of its obligations (financial and political) with a bit of dignity. After all, the UK wasn't forced into it.
And if the UK remains in, it should meet all of its obligations (financial and political) with a bit of dignity. After all, the UK wasn't forced into it.
The challenge is that if nothing happens then we leave the EU on 29th March at 11pm by the action of international law. Doesn't matter if the Commons says "no, we don't want to Crash Brexit". It just happens unless something is done to stop it. We're heading off the cliff as it stands.
Vin
The movement in the markets suggest she'll be coming back with what she considers good news.
Whatever the hell that may be!
Whatever the hell that may be!
“Legally-binding” changes to the Withdrawal Agreement agreed.
We await details with interest.
We await details with interest.
Indeed. Got my wording wrong. Meant “only option left” not “we end up”
Strewth guys........I may not like what is happening in reality no more than you guys. However if a Brexit deal is the compromise why are you so against it? We have’nt really heard what changes they have made. So wouldn’t it be best to wait to see what she has come up with before condemning her?....
https://assets.publishing.service.g...nt_data/file/785121/2019-03-11_Instrument.pdf
If you want the details.
Not much has actually changed, when I read the deal document before to try and understand this whole Irish border stuff a lot of these type of statements were in there. I guess that's why it keeps referencing the November document. I don't remember the 2020 bit though. Or the legally binding statement which I guess may requested.
Anyway from my understanding, the meat of the matter is if some commitee rules EU are not trying to create a better border option we can unanimously leave the border deal. If it rules they are then we can't.
I don't think there's anything stopping a mutual disagreement as to what the deal should be, like with UK parliament and Brexit, deadlocking things. Unless I'm missing something which I may well be.
So in practical terms I don't think anything has changed as I didn't think the EU wanted this border agreement to be permanent the first place. Though I guess it's possible if the commitee rules in favour of the EU we will be forced to accept their proposal or vice versa
If you want the details.
Not much has actually changed, when I read the deal document before to try and understand this whole Irish border stuff a lot of these type of statements were in there. I guess that's why it keeps referencing the November document. I don't remember the 2020 bit though. Or the legally binding statement which I guess may requested.
Anyway from my understanding, the meat of the matter is if some commitee rules EU are not trying to create a better border option we can unanimously leave the border deal. If it rules they are then we can't.
I don't think there's anything stopping a mutual disagreement as to what the deal should be, like with UK parliament and Brexit, deadlocking things. Unless I'm missing something which I may well be.
So in practical terms I don't think anything has changed as I didn't think the EU wanted this border agreement to be permanent the first place. Though I guess it's possible if the commitee rules in favour of the EU we will be forced to accept their proposal or vice versa
So, the deck chairs have been rearranged. Now what, do our esteemed representatives steer straight for the iceberg, or simply abandon ship? Is there another option? Not sure I can wring one out of this strained metaphor. Excuse me for letting off a distress flare, I will now go and build a lifeboat.
"The final lines from Geoffrey Cox's letter of legal advice say:
The legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the UK would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement."
So Cox has read it the same way I did and just said the exact thing I said. That the concern is if we just mutually disagree with EU then there's nothing we can do.
I should be a lawyer. This legal lark's easy
The legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the UK would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement."
So Cox has read it the same way I did and just said the exact thing I said. That the concern is if we just mutually disagree with EU then there's nothing we can do.
I should be a lawyer. This legal lark's easy