My facebook post on the morning of the referendum:
La roi est mort, viva la.... que?
The Emperor has no clothes on.
To the Eurosceptic, this is a statement of fact. The hollow centre of the EU has been shown up as a talking shop, whose lethargy and lack of agility to respond to crises has been tried in the court of public opinion. To the internationalist, it is a prophecy - that when the clamour dies down and the hard talking begins, the lack of any coherent plan on the Leave side will be revealed for what it is: arrogance, bluster and a cynical grab for power.
I voted remain. In an increasingly interconnected world, where many of the problems humanity faces are global, I see little good arising from division and isolationism.
I wish I could have more hope in the light of this result, but presently I see scarce few positives. At best, it may elicit some much needed soul-searching and reform or raise a warning flag to other nations. America has elections this year, Germany and France next. Let this be a lesson to you - those that they prey on hatred, division and intolerance will be emboldened by the outcome of the referendum. At worst, I see a decision that will divide a continent. Either Britain will made an example of, or other countries will leave the EU and enemies without will take advantage of the lack of solidarity.
We are in a bad negotiating position. Although this country has many benefits (good infrastructure, an educated populace, the English language, cultural soft power), we are in awkward situation. We have slightly over two years to negotiate trade deals both with the EU and with other partners. A recession, which is a definite possibility, will further diminish our negotiating position. Put simply, we are desperate, our trading partners may not be. In some instances, signing new trade deals may be as simple as changing a few names at the bottom of a treaty. In most cases, we are vulnerable to the internal political pressures facing our trading partners.
I genuinely hope that I am wrong. I hope that we can go it alone and make a success of things, and that I am merely auguring phantasms, not realities. But I certainly fear for the future.
It could be argued that we should have seen this coming. This vote is less a representation of dissatisfaction with the EU, and more a symptom of a greater malaise, a growing sense of disillusion with a small and distant elite who have benefited from globalisation, and a large majority that has not. This can be seen in the Occupy movement or in the American primaries or the rise of anti-establishment populist candidates. This would explain the rise of Trump as a potential US president, although it is hard to imagine that his election would herald a more egalitarian society. Ironically, as Orwell observed in "The Theory and Practice of Oligarchical Collectivism" in "1984", those are the bottom seldom benefit when the Establishment is dislodged.
So what can we do?
For starters, it is important not to castigate those voted against your wishes. Anyone can be lied to, and there was misinformation and fear on both sides of the campaign. Furthermore, whilst it is fair to say that a portion of the Leave vote was driven by xenophobia and ignorance (just as it is fair to say that a portion of the Remain electorate may have voted in its own self-interests), the matter of EU membership was always far more nuanced that the binary decision of Yes or No. The capability to vote to remain a member of the common market, but curtail the EU's political sensibilities, was not an option on the voting card.
I urge you to write to your MP. The Leave camp has promised that the same levels of investment that we receive from the EU. That's the same level of internal investment in science, the arts, or regions like Cornwall. Make Cameron enshrine that promise in law. And whilst he's at, get him to protect worker's rights too. There are many that are looking at the departure of the EU as any excuse to get rid of the EU Working Time Directive (under the guise of "Red Tape"). If we face a recession, erosion of worker’s rights will be made on the grounds of “competitiveness”.
The king is dead. Long live the King. But let's make sure he has some clothes on first!
