Off Topic Politics Thread

[benditlikeabanana]

If you can’t see that the Brexit vote is enabling the far right; and causing hatred then there’s no hope.

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Just some of the intimidation that a remain MP faced today.

Leavers only retort is “Brexit means Brexit” then proceeding to get angry.

I have still heard zero benefits of leaving, and plenty of potential downsides.

bit of a leap you have made in claiming the rise of the far right, a couple of brexiteers caling out a woman with a police escort is not exactly what i would call emboldening behavior. how about showing some clips of leftists attacking people on the right without their police escort?

 

[fatletiss]

Forgive me but I have to bring up what the Mother of Parliaments has spent hours of its precious time debating today. Well it’s not as though there’s anything else going on is there? Jeremy Corbyn is accused of calling Theresa May a “stupid woman” during PMQ’s today. To put this in context, the Tory benches in their entirety were engaged in practicing for their Christmas panto, and Corbyn clearly said, under his breath and off the record, “stupid people”. Having been asked to return to the House and clarify the matter, Corbyn indeed confirmed that his words were “stupid people”. That of course didn’t satisfy the baying hounds on the government benches and “trial by points of order” went on for nearly an hour. Anyway, here’s Jezza, see what you think.

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Looked like he said, “Feck off you useless trollop, go feck up the brewery p1ss up.”

Clear as day and he should be reprimanded.

 

[Onionman]

There are enough hints that the military is being readied incase of a populace response to a no deal Brexit. Stories that suicides may spiral after a no deal Brexit.

Was the army not needed if we don't leave? Suicides not a problem if we don't leave?

Poster below (West Kent) saying it is disappointing and unpleasant that there is a rise in racism/xenophobia. (Vocal minority saying "Brexit encourages......"

Another comment say that there is a direct link to Brexit. direct link to Brexit? or direct link due to the nature of how the debate has been? I would quite happily concede that the way the debate has been can be directly linked. I am less inclined to believe Brexit itself is so and even if it is, that does not mean we shouldn't do something because some nutters are "enabled." I think that we can all agree that the way the debate has been conducted can be blamed for the actions of both sides of nutters.

We could have not abolished slavery, not done all sorts of things because of what might happen. Whether you believe Brexit is a good idea or not does not mean that the "enabling" argument means we shouldn't do it. It is just being used as another tool in the box.

The whole remain argument is based on money. When they talk about any human aspect it can be driven back to money. I think many people find it very hard to believe that so many in this country think there is more to life than money. Increasingly hard when the TV is turned on and everything is about doom and gloom now and for the future based on money / finance. Is it so hard to believe that large parts of this country think about more than money? It is very hard to convince anyone of any other reason for Brexit when we are talking to people that focus solely on money.

Bad things happen in the world. There are nasty people in the world. To constantly resist any change because some nutters might be "enabled" is just an excuse not to change.

Another poster talks about the "over half a million" peaceful march. I'll not go into how accurate Owen Jones' calculator is but no mention there of the numbers of counter protestors that intentionally marched side by side in the march? peacefully with no trouble? They didn't start off at different points to "intercept." They marched alongside and within peacefully. Just as they did with the "anti Trump" march.

I asked for evidence of your claim that Remainers were likely to cause trouble and you've come up with.... nothing at all. Not a word in there. There isn't even a hint that Army readiness is anything to do with trouble from Remainers. It's to help distribute food and to deal with the situation should food/medicine shortages lead to unrest. Not a word about disgruntled Remainers; that's just your spin.

The rest is just tedious verbiage to distract from the fact that there is no substance to your claim.

For the second time today you've posted as though something is true when you have literally no evidence.

I know it works for your usual unquestioning Brexit mates but not for us.

Vin

 

[ImpSaint]

I have no need for it to work with my "unquestioning Brexit mates." We don;t talk about Brexit. That was done and dusted 2 years ago when we voted, saw the result, spent a day or 2 talking about it and then waiting for it to happen. Isn;t a subject that really comes up anymore in that circle. Even my remainer friends bring it up. done and dusted.

We talk about the useless government and opposition but Brexit is just another thing they both "feck up" and treat as a political toy.

I asked for evidence of your claim that Remainers were likely to cause trouble and you've come up with.... nothing at all. Not a word in there. There isn't even a hint that Army readiness is anything to do with trouble from Remainers. It's to help distribute food and to deal with the situation should food/medicine shortages lead to unrest. Not a word about disgruntled Remainers; that's just your spin.
Vin

Is the below not a hint? Or is the civil obedience and unrest upon a "no deal Brexit" going to be from leavers?

I can foresee the prospect of a no deal Brexit causing more civil unrest and disobedience that the Poll Tax did 30 years ago.

A second referendum which reverses Brexit will cause far less upset.

 

[ChilcoSaint]

I have no need for it to work with my "unquestioning Brexit mates." We don;t talk about Brexit. That was done and dusted 2 years ago when we voted, saw the result, spent a day or 2 talking about it and then waiting for it to happen. Isn;t a subject that really comes up anymore in that circle. Even my remainer friends bring it up. done and dusted.

We talk about the useless government and opposition but Brexit is just another thing they both "feck up" and treat as a political toy.





Is the below not a hint? Or is the civil obedience and unrest upon a "no deal Brexit" going to be from leavers?

So retainers are going to riot on my say so now! Get a grip Imps.

The likely outcomes of a no deal Brexit, acknowledged by all the economic and political forecasts (apart from the ERG), all point to recession, crisis in healthcare, massive delays in supplies and raw materials arriving, no prospect of trade deals with anyone anytime soon, and sectarian problems in Northern Ireland rearing their heads again. Faced with all that, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if there was some degree of civil unrest. Not necessarily about the ****ing stupid decision to let it happen, but about the consequences of the decision.

In contrast, if we end up staying in, there won’t be an economic downturn or any of the other stuff, so at worst we might see a few rampant Kippers kicking off, but nothing on a widespread scale.

 

[Schad]

So retainers are going to riot on my say so now! Get a grip Imps.

The likely outcomes of a no deal Brexit, acknowledged by all the economic and political forecasts (apart from the ERG), all point to recession, crisis in healthcare, massive delays in supplies and raw materials arriving, no prospect of trade deals with anyone anytime soon, and sectarian problems in Northern Ireland rearing their heads again. Faced with all that, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if there was some degree of civil unrest. Not necessarily about the ****ing stupid decision to let it happen, but about the consequences of the decision.

Sure, everything points that way, but can we really say what reality is or isn't until we've tried? It's the same reason why, in the past week, I have stuck my genitals in a fully heated waffle iron, attempted to fly by jumping off a tall building and flapping my arms, and slapped a large man in a Hell's Angels vest in front of several other large men in Hell's Angels vests. Granted, each instance turned out roughly as was forecasted, but that could be purely coincidental.

 

[ImpSaint]

So retainers are going to riot on my say so now! Get a grip Imps.

The likely outcomes of a no deal Brexit, acknowledged by all the economic and political forecasts (apart from the ERG), all point to recession, crisis in healthcare, massive delays in supplies and raw materials arriving, no prospect of trade deals with anyone anytime soon, and sectarian problems in Northern Ireland rearing their heads again. Faced with all that, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if there was some degree of civil unrest. Not necessarily about the ****ing stupid decision to let it happen, but about the consequences of the decision.

In contrast, if we end up staying in, there won’t be an economic downturn or any of the other stuff, so at worst we might see a few rampant Kippers kicking off, but nothing on a widespread scale.

There is a recession around the corner. You can blame it on Brexit. The rest of the world won't be able to. Banging on about a "Brexit recession" doesn't mean when the next recession comes around it is because of Brexit. Is it next month Germany could technically be in recession when the figures come out? While the remain camp is still going on about how the UK is lagging behind? There is a recession coming.

We can't keep on printing money and they are stopping that tap.

Staying in won't be an economic downturn? So the recession that is around the corner will still be down to a Brexit that didn't happen? Or "despite Brexit" that didn;t happen?

 

[ChilcoSaint]

There is a recession around the corner. You can blame it on Brexit. The rest of the world won't be able to. Banging on about a "Brexit recession" doesn't mean when the next recession comes around it is because of Brexit. Is it next month Germany could technically be in recession when the figures come out? While the remain camp is still going on about how the UK is lagging behind? There is a recession coming.

We can't keep on printing money and they are stopping that tap.

Staying in won't be an economic downturn? So the recession that is around the corner will still be down to a Brexit that didn't happen? Or "despite Brexit" that didn;t happen?

Just keep on believing it Imps. You’re not convincing anyone else.

 

[ImpSaint]

Just keep on believing it Imps. You’re not convincing anyone else.

Germany contracted last quarter. They are not sure that it won't again this quarter, yet the narrative is still that we are lagging behind with our "slow growth."

Nothing to do with believing. Will come up top of google if you type in Germany growth. It is no secret despite the TV wanting to keep saying we are laggin behind with poor growth.

There has been a constant trend, since the referendum was even announced as a policy, of the UK growth forecasts being underestimated and having to be revised upward and the opposite for the EU countries.

 

[ImpSaint]

This is from trading economics site. forecast graphs. First one is UK (despite Brexit) and the second is Germany, way off IMF estimates, way off the narrative of "lagging behind!":

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source:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

 

[Schad]

Cumulative growth since Brexit announcement (so, Q3 2016 on) per that chart:

UK: 3.14%
Germany: 4.07%

 

[ImpSaint]

Cumulative growth since Brexit announcement (so, Q3 2016 on) per that chart:

UK: 3.14%
Germany: 4.07%

Bit selective there and assuming a correlation. Prior to the Brexit vote Germany and a lot of the EU had been stagnating while the UK grew. All these ups and downs level out in the end. They grew faster immediately out of the financial crisis, then we grew while they stagnated, then we slowed down a bit and they overtook us, they have just caught up with us. We went through this a while ago I have added this year to the spreadsheet and screenshotted. figures are from actuals:

What it shows is since the financial crisis the ebbs and flows of UK vs Germany growth. The media, EU, IMF narrative of Germany accelerating away from the UK ignores that in reality we have both had virtually equal growth since 2009!! The EU's forecast for Germany is still higher than the UKs despite the fact that they contracted last quarter. Those graphs above show Germany contracting further while the UK continues to grow..........Will the narrative tell us this? Not forecasts, I mean will the BBC praise the UK and detail that they were wrong? That the EU and IMF were wrong? IF the graphs above are correct of course.

But as it stands we have grown at this point 0.1% more than Germany since Q1 2009. we'll call it a draw. For reference the Eurozone over the same period is well behind. Total growth 2009 to Q3 2018 - UK 12.3%, Germany 12.2%, Eurozone 6.9%:

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[Schad]

First of all, you're adding when you ought to be multiplying. You cannot just add quarterly growth to get the annual growth rate, because it compounds, and similarly you cannot add the annual growth rates to get the ten-year growth rate. If the economy grows at 1% per quarter for 10 years, it isn't up 40%, it's up 47.4%. If it grows at 1% per quarter for 20 years, it isn't up 80%, it's up 119%. Makes a big difference over time.

Second, it's not selective when your argument is that the UK is clearly not lagging behind owing to Brexit. Absolutely, it cannot be argued definitively that Brexit is the reason that the UK has seen less growth since the referendum when compared to Germany. We can however definitively say that the UK has seen less growth in that period, because it quite simply has. It looks like it has seen more growth on that chart because i) the scales are different, owing to one very good and one very bad quarter for Germany in that span necessitating a different increment on the y-axis, and ii) because fitting a predictive curve in a dataset of 11 points can get really weird if you happen to have an outlier as the final data point. Germany's economy dipped in the third quarter because of exogenous factors which are not expected to persist, namely a bottlenecking of its vehicle exports. It is expected to grow in Q4, at which point the curve will largely price out that single downward movement.

 

[Onionman]

I'll just leave this here.

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Vin

 

[Onionman]

I have no need for it to work with my "unquestioning Brexit mates." We don;t talk about Brexit. That was done and dusted 2 years ago when we voted, saw the result, spent a day or 2 talking about it and then waiting for it to happen. Isn;t a subject that really comes up anymore in that circle. Even my remainer friends bring it up. done and dusted.

We talk about the useless government and opposition but Brexit is just another thing they both "feck up" and treat as a political toy.

Is the below not a hint? Or is the civil obedience and unrest upon a "no deal Brexit" going to be from leavers?

Ah, hadn't realised that Chilc's opinion was evidence that would cause the army to be mobilised.

For God's sake, Chilcs, won't you think of the children?

Vin

 

[Missing Lambo]

I'll just leave this here.

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Vin

Wonderfully encapsulates the level of debate.

I passionately disagree with a certain regular poster on here, as I note do many others. The fact that exasperation with his views may occasionally be shown with a virtual shrug of the shoulders and shake of the head is something of which we can be proud as a "community". So too the fact that the said poster always provides evidence for his views, allowing others to tackle that evidence and not just dismiss the poster as "stupid".

Maybe the decision should be taken on this board!

 

[Archers Road]

Looked like he said, “Feck off you useless trollop, go feck up the brewery p1ss up.”

Clear as day and he should be commended .

Ftfy

 

[Onionman]

Wonderfully encapsulates the level of debate.

I passionately disagree with a certain regular poster on here, as I note do many others. The fact that exasperation with his views may occasionally be shown with a virtual shrug of the shoulders and shake of the head is something of which we can be proud as a "community". So too the fact that the said poster always provides evidence for his views, allowing others to tackle that evidence and not just dismiss the poster as "stupid".

Maybe the decision should be taken on this board!

We're the liberal metropolitan elite that caused all this to happen. We'll just make it worse.

Vin

 

[Missing Lambo]

We're the liberal metropolitan elite that caused all this to happen. We'll just make it worse.

Vin

To coin a phrase, how could it be worse?

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[Osvaldorama]

Of course it can be argued definitively that Brexit has slowed the economy! You are the first person I’ve seen to even try and deny it.

I think your previous post may have hit the nail on the head as to why I disagree with you so fundamentally.

You said (I’m paraphrasing as I’m on my phone so can’t scroll back a page) ‘to some people there are things more important than money’.

That is where i disagree completely. To me, when voting on a decision about the future, money is my main motivating factor. I want the country to be as prosperous as possible, as I believe more problems can be solved the more wealthy we are as a nation. I believe it is sheer folly to do otherwise and let emotions cloud that.

I do agree, however, that we have debated this a lot more successfully than parliament