Off Topic Politics Thread

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Beddytare said:
Goodness vin..........Oh yes I remember all that......however you are still blaming the brexiteers for one idiot. Do you really believe the remainers don't have their share of idiots? Ok granted thankfully as far as we know haven't taken anyones life. For goodness sake Vin don't paint us all with the same brush mate come on........
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It can happen to both sides but don't deny the effect of hardline rhetoric in the media. this was influenced by the brexit debate. that doesnt mean you shouldn't have a debate but you need to learn lessons, not bury your head in the sand.
 
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Schad said:
First of all, you're adding when you ought to be multiplying. You cannot just add quarterly growth to get the annual growth rate, because it compounds, and similarly you cannot add the annual growth rates to get the ten-year growth rate. If the economy grows at 1% per quarter for 10 years, it isn't up 40%, it's up 47.4%. If it grows at 1% per quarter for 20 years, it isn't up 80%, it's up 119%. Makes a big difference over time.

Second, it's not selective when your argument is that the UK is clearly not lagging behind owing to Brexit. Absolutely, it cannot be argued definitively that Brexit is the reason that the UK has seen less growth since the referendum when compared to Germany. We can however definitively say that the UK has seen less growth in that period, because it quite simply has. It looks like it has seen more growth on that chart because i) the scales are different, owing to one very good and one very bad quarter for Germany in that span necessitating a different increment on the y-axis, and ii) because fitting a predictive curve in a dataset of 11 points can get really weird if you happen to have an outlier as the final data point. Germany's economy dipped in the third quarter because of exogenous factors which are not expected to persist, namely a bottlenecking of its vehicle exports. It is expected to grow in Q4, at which point the curve will largely price out that single downward movement.
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I got lazy with the chart. Just fed the percentages in as I couldn't be bothered with GDP increases. I have that somewhere on my HD but couldn;t find it last night inbetween poker hands. I'll amend it....then maybe concede I was wrong or that I was right.

Not too sure on your assertion that Germany is expected to grow. Lots of people are expecting them to go into recession, be it because of US policy or anything else. UK is not expected to go into recession in the next Q or 2.

EDIT: Looking at GDP is quite hard to ally as you have to change it into a single currency and dependent on which currency you use it then contradicts growth figures. For instance in 2015 the UK GDP shrunk in $ terms even though its growth is reported as being 2.3%.

As a crude version in $bn GDP - figures taken from countryeconomy.com
UK 2009 - 2403, 2017 - 2600 so in that period UK grew by 8.2%
Ger 2009 - 3426, 2017 - 3700 So in that period Germany grew by 8.0%

So in this 9 year period after the financial crisis (using $ GDP) 2009 - 2017 The UK grew very marginally faster than Germany. Add on this year so far and the gap widens (although still marginal.)

Yes if you do this in £ or in Euro the results might be different. I am not really arguing that we are going great guns, just that the narrative of us "lagging behind" is wrong. Over that time we are neck and neck yet they choose to ignore when we were ahead and they were stagnating to prove their point. Who knows where this will go. I am just questioning the narrative on this.
 
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Really the fault lies with those in the Tory party opposed to May´s Brexit Deal. the likes of Mogg, Johnson, the hard line Brexiteers. The likes of Dominic Glieve will support May if push comes to shove. So if things go belly up, they are to blame and should hang themselves in shame for letting down their party, leader and ultimately the country at large. As for the Labour Party it is their right to oppose May, they are the oposition. The fault likes squarely at the steps of Moggy and friends.
 
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Jo Cox's murder should not be allied with the Brexit referendum at all. She was murdered by a loon from Britain First which is a fascist organisation started before anyone even thought about actually offering a referendum.

To try and present it as such is the same as trying to say Islam is to blame for terrorists who use Islam as their justification. Neither Brexit or Islam is to blame for nutters that do terrible things.
 
ImpSaint said:
Jo Cox's murder should not be allied with the Brexit referendum at all. She was murdered by a loon from Britain First which is a fascist organisation started before anyone even thought about actually offering a referendum.

To try and present it as such is the same as trying to say Islam is to blame for terrorists who use Islam as their justification. Neither Brexit or Islam is to blame for nutters that do terrible things.
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It would be closer to blaming IS for promoting the ideals of sharia law and then being portrayed all over out media for our nutters to pick up on it. it existed beforehand but the attention gives it more spread and weight. and the seeming popularity gives it legitimacy.
 
VocalMinority said:
It would be closer to blaming IS for promoting the ideals of sharia law and then being portrayed all over out media for our nutters to pick up on it. it existed beforehand but the attention gives it more spread and weight. and the seeming popularity gives it legitimacy.
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No it wouldn't. IS is closer to Britain First in that example. Brexit is closer to Islam in that example. The nutter = the nutter in that example.

Islam is not IS.
Brexit is not Britain First.
Islam does not promote killing.
Brexit does not promote killing.

IS has had much more publicity than Britain first.

Neither Brexit nor Islam should be held as responsible for maniacal organisations and their nutter followers, whether they claim to act on their behalf or not*. It is just convenient to say "nothing to do with Islam" (which is true) in one case yet "everything to do with Brexit" for the other.

This is why the debate goes like it does. People have no scruples when trying to attribute something tragic like this to something they don't support.

*I have no idea if the Britain First chap claimed to be acting on Brexit's behalf or not.
 
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ImpSaint said:
No it wouldn't. IS is closer to Britain First in that example. Brexit is closer to Islam in that example. The nutter = the nutter in that example.

Islam is not IS.
Brexit is not Britain First.
Islam does not promote killing.
Brexit does not promote killing.

IS has had much more publicity than Britain first.

Neither Brexit nor Islam should be held as responsible for maniacal organisations and their nutter followers, whether they claim to act on their behalf or not*. It is just convenient to say "nothing to do with Islam" (which is true) in one case yet "everything to do with Brexit" for the other.

This is why the debate goes like it does. People have no scruples when trying to attribute something tragic like this to something they don't support.

*I have no idea if the Britain First chap claimed to be acting on Brexit's behalf or not.
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I Was saying that IS was Britain first. But Brexit clearly promoted Britain first, and therefore promoted killing, which was my point. Wasnt intentional but it did it.

Some evidence to show it was promoted by the Brexit debate:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB&q=Britain first
 
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Beddytare said:
I'm not sure how we can include remain.......We had that vote already. You just can't ignore it because it didn't suite you. There was a clear majority.
I agree you may have some people changing their minds........As you always do in these type of situations. If they do have another vote then I hope they at least will have changed the constitution for a greater majority for the outcome.
I don't rejoice in the EU will be worse off. I got that from some of our EU partners direct that is how they see it.
I certainly do not see the EU as an enemy but I do see them as bullying us and have done for quite a while. You may not agree but I promise I have good reason to believe that. I think that if any party were to completely ignore that first referendum would be in serious trouble. It doesn't bother me having another one as I think the vote will be the same.........Although maybe with a smaller majority..........Hence why I think the constitution needs to be changed. Had this been done in the first place we wouldn't be having this discussion at all........However it still wouldn't have changed my mind........
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We can ignore it, in exactly the same way as any parent would ignore it if their kids voted to have ice cream for breakfast dinner and tea.

Brexit is a bloody stupid idea, that has now become obvious to all but the most stubborn. Time to bin it off before any more damage is done to the fabric of our disunited Kingdom
 
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I have to disagree with some of this: Islamic terrorism is all to do with Islam. Islam directly influences the jihadists into believing they are indulging in a holy, justified war and that they will end up in paradise. It's the driver.

Vin
 
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VocalMinority said:
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I Was saying that IS was Britain first. But Brexit clearly promoted Britain first, and therefore promoted killing, which was my point. Wasnt intentional but it did it.

Some evidence to show it was promoted by the Brexit debate:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB&q=Britain first
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Why does that prove it was promoted by the Brexit debate? The peak there is when she died. Is it not possible that when people heard Britain First mentioned they googled what it was?

And is that 100 searches in the whole of June 2016? If so are we seriously using a peak of 100 searches in a month as being related to Brexit rather than being as a result of people hearing the name after the murder and seeing what it was?

I'm not sure what you are saying that graph proves.
 
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ImpSaint said:
Why does that prove it was promoted by the Brexit debate? The peak there is when she died. Is it not possible that when people heard Britain First mentioned they googled what it was?

And is that 100 searches in the whole of June 2016? If so are we seriously using a peak of 100 searches in a month as being related to Brexit rather than being as a result of people hearing the name after the murder and seeing what it was?

I'm not sure what you are saying that graph proves.
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No it's 100%. It's saying there was 4 times more people looking up Britain first during Brexit than before.

And yes I am directly saying that people looked up Britain first after hearing about brexit. That's the definition of promotion. Brexit promoted Britain First.
 
ChilcoSaint said:
It looked like “stupid people” to me, watching it live, before anyone else suggested it, or anyone changed it to “stupid woman”. That’s said in possession of the pair I’ve always had, thank you. You can go along with the panto crowd if you want to, but I know what I saw.
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not sure who this panto crowd are , but oh yes he did :1980_boogie_down:
 
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