Off Topic Politics Thread

[Le Tissier's Laces]

This reminds me of an interesting point about cars. I doubt it's part of Trump's thinking and I doubt the change will happen overnight, but I saw Rory Sutherland (the advertising guy) talking about Jaguar's rebrand, which a lot of people have called a disaster. He's not sure if it is actually a bad move because he thinks if electric vehicles really start to dominate the market that may be the end of luxury car brands. His argument is that a lot of the "luxury" element of cars comes from the engineering involved in the engines, but electric engines are far simpler than petrol engines, with far fewer parts that can be improved by engineering or come loose and start to rattle or whatever. This means there's less scope to improve performance or driving efficiency and experience. Rolls Royce used to advertise saying the loudest thing in the car was the clock, but that can be true of the cheapest electric car. Beyond the residual prestige of the brand name - which won't remain a selling point forever - and perhaps the interior of the car, it may well be much harder to make a car stand out.

Funnily enough, I’m hopefully about to start a project with Polestar, who are positioned at the luxury electric end of things.

 

[- Doing The Lambert Walk]

Problem is that Trump is so unpredictable and likely to switch position on a whim that none of the (relative) potential benefits of being on a lower tariff rate are likely to ever materialise.

And with the way his mind changes at such a quick and unpredictable pattern, coupled with the fact his term expires in 2028, if you were going to invest in America would you really be pushing your chips in at this point? Factories and processing plants are not applied for, constructed, staffed and stocked overnight

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

And with the way his mind changes at such a quick and unpredictable pattern, coupled with the fact his term expires in 2028, if you were going to invest in America would you really be pushing your chips in at this point? Factories and processing plants are not applied for, constructed, staffed and stocked overnight

It was interesting hearing him say “hopefully” in his speech last night. A very rare show of self-doubt.

 

[Archers Road]

Not seen much fallout from Trump's tariffs in here. If i was American , it would feel like a masterstroke. I am not sure how accurate or manipulated Trump's figures are but , assuming they are correct, you can get his point about being ripped off.

The impact of the tariffs in the short term will be inflation but i can see investment in America soaring. It is brilliant news for America and i think the E U will really suffer. This will be the first and only time Brexit will have had a benefit

I am not sure how this will play out in tge ling term. In about 5 years time the infrastructure will be in place for American industry to benefit to the detriment of the developing world. I am not convinced that the US will see the immediate benefits in the Trump administration's action. I can see the EU going into recession.

Economically this is a bold initiative for the US but i think the politcal fall out will be huge. It will make America great again but it will also make America hated. China must be furious with the tariffs but keen to exploit the situation.

I am angry about this whilst also seeing that Americans will realise how bold the decision is for their country. Not sure how thr Democrats can opppose the sentiments of these measures.

You’re missing the salient point here Ian; Trump’s a ****ing idiot, he has no policy, no strategy, his numbers are made up, and protectionism turned the 1929 Wall Street Crash into a global depression.

 

[Osvaldorama]

Thanks Os - that was actually a good, informative post, and tallies with what Juliet Samuel is saying in The Times today (not shrieking - that’s where you couldn’t help yourself, which is a shame).

As you say, it’s going to be interesting. Also tallies with the part that they seem to have forgotten when talking about a weak Europe, reliant on America, as post WW2 that’s what they were aiming for. We only finished paying off the Marshall Plan stuff in 2006, I believe.

The EU and the BBC are certainly shrieking and trying to scare people imo. Seen a lot of bollocks from MPs and journalists already.

But ultimately; Trump has a valid point.

Actually, I’ll rephrase that, all sides have valid points.

Americas debt crisis means that they can either continue their global empire, or save the republic. There is no doubt that their global hegemony has harmed the American people.

In a way its Main Street vs. Wall Street, and for the first time in living memory a president has chosen Main Street.

 

[Archers Road]

The Russians have nothing to export, though.

Russia has oil, gas, minerals, gold, and timber in abundance.

 

[Osvaldorama]

You’re missing the salient point here Ian; Trump’s a ****ing idiot, he has no policy, no strategy, his numbers are made up, and protectionism turned the 1929 Wall Street Crash into a global depression.

I disagree with this.

You may not like his strategy, but he definitely has one.

He could end up looking like a genius or a fool by the time all this is done.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

The EU and the BBC are certainly shrieking and trying to scare people imo. Seen a lot of bollocks from MPs and journalists already.

But ultimately; Trump has a valid point.

Actually, I’ll rephrase that, all sides have valid points.

Americas debt crisis means that they can either continue their global empire, or save the republic. There is no doubt that their global hegemony has harmed the American people.

In a way its Main Street vs. Wall Street, and for the first time in living memory a president has chosen Main Street.

Do read the Juliet Samuel piece though -

Trump’s chaotic style obscures point of tariffs https://www.thetimes.com/article/7860109a-ea9b-4ecf-9880-cdbca28ba3ac?shareToken=ec94d7108336fb6d7c0465bdb01ed90b

 

[Archers Road]

I disagree with this.

You may not like his strategy, but he definitely has one.

He could end up looking like a genius or a fool by the time all this is done.

My money is on fool. What I will concede though, is that the tectonic plates of the world’s economy are shifting. Postwar capitalism no longer serves the interests of working people, in the USA or Europe; something radical is needed, and Trump has recognised that much at least. I don’t think he has the answers, but we’ll see. He was voted in to shake things up, and he’s certainly doing that.

 

[San Tejón]

I’m of the opinion that the average American doesn’t understand how tariffs work.
I think the majority of them (speculation) think that the tariffs are paid by the exporters and not by the importers.
All of a sudden they are going to see the retail price of goods rise, to cover the cost of the tariffs being imposed by Trump.
At some point, I would hope, they will collectively have a lightbulb moment and realise that the rise in their cost of living has been caused by Trump’s tariffs.
And if an imported product cannot be created within the States, or an alternative product of the same quality offered as a substitute for a preferred product, at a cheaper price, then the whole concept of tariffs becomes pointless, imo.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump started looking to build and fill more prisons because, I believe, under their penal code slave labour is acceptable.
He might even consider stopping deportations and just use his targets to work for nothing.

 

[ChilcoSaint]

My money is on fool. What I will concede though, is that the tectonic plates of the world’s economy are shifting. Postwar capitalism no longer serves the interests of working people, in the USA or Europe; something radical is needed, and Trump has recognised that much at least. I don’t think he has the answers, but we’ll see. He was voted in to shake things up, and he’s certainly doing that.

Postwar capitalism has primarily benefited postwar capitalists, as the rising number of billionaires would suggest. In contrast to the rise in total wealth, the percentage of the world’s children in poverty has remained relatively constant.

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[Osvaldorama]

I’m of the opinion that the average American doesn’t understand how tariffs work.
I think the majority of them (speculation) think that the tariffs are paid by the exporters and not by the importers.
All of a sudden they are going to see the retail price of goods rise, to cover the cost of the tariffs being imposed by Trump.
At some point, I would hope, they will collectively have a lightbulb moment and realise that the rise in their cost of living has been caused by Trump’s tariffs.
And if an imported product cannot be created within the States, or an alternative product of the same quality offered as a substitute for a preferred product, at a cheaper price, then the whole concept of tariffs becomes pointless, imo.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Trump started looking to build and fill more prisons because, I believe, under their penal code slave labour is acceptable.
He might even consider stopping deportations and just use his targets to work for nothing.

And it’s exactly this kind of insulting rhetoric that led to a huge groundswell of support for American isolationism

They are asking “why do we continue to help fund the EU, when they hate us?”

Most of the cutting edge engineering and manufacturing relies on American companies btw.
It’s the largest economy in the world.

I think there’s probably a good chance the majority of Americans understand what tariffs are ffs

 

[- Doing The Lambert Walk]

I think there's a distinction to be made between not understanding what tariffs are and not understanding how tariffs work, which is San Tejon's point. A lot of Americans will, as Os says, understand what tariffs are but a hell of a lot won't understand the intricacies of the reliefs and stresses they put on various industries and how that can and will impact areas of everyday life

Which I don't even think is patronising, as I don't fully understand it all myself!

 

[Big Ern]

And it’s exactly this kind of insulting rhetoric that led to a huge groundswell of support for American isolationism

They are asking “why do we continue to help fund the EU, when they hate us?”

Most of the cutting edge engineering and manufacturing relies on American companies btw.
It’s the largest economy in the world.

I think there’s probably a good chance the majority of Americans understand what tariffs are ffs

54% of US adults have less than 7th grade literacy, so no, I doubt the majority of americans do.

 

[AshbySaint]

You’re missing the salient point here Ian; Trump’s a ****ing idiot, he has no policy, no strategy, his numbers are made up, and protectionism turned the 1929 Wall Street Crash into a global depression.

I also wonder if it’s cynical ploy for the richest in the US to get richer. I mean the billionaires that are part his team.
If the shares fall steeply in value the very rich can sit it out and then buy shares when they are low

 

[Archers Road]

I also wonder if it’s cynical ploy for the richest in the US to get richer. I mean the billionaires that are part his team.
If the shares fall steeply in value the very rich can sit it out and then buy shares when they are low

Yeah if there's a masterplan, it's most likely to be that something like that; they're all shorting the stock market.

 

[Osvaldorama]

54% of US adults have less than 7th grade literacy, so no, I doubt the majority of americans do.

They also have one of the highest % of university educated people per capita, most of the worlds most innovative companies and attract top talent from all over the globe.

 

[Big Ern]

They also have one of the highest % of university educated people per capita, most of the worlds most innovative companies and attract top talent from all over the globe.

Yeah, in the blue states, not in Trump country, they have the lowest. They also have the highest infant mortality rate in the US, which is amongst the highest in the western world, which will only get worse now that he's destroyed medicaid.

 

[StJabbo1]

As I think Loading posted earlier the tariff calculations weren't as complex as the formula the white house issued and missed out several factors that led to distorted figures particularly damaging to fragile emerging economies already hit by cuts to USAID. Areas where China and Russia have increasing influence. Below from BBC Verify a worthwhile read.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o

 

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They also have one of the highest % of university educated people per capita, most of the worlds most innovative companies and attract top talent from all over the globe.

The rhetoric from Trump’s cabinet that Yale is a terrible, racist, unreliable University probably won’t help that continue. They are losing top professors to Canada and China quite quickly.