What are you doing with it all? Seems like it would be cheaper if you were bathing in asses milk! We’re paying under 30 a month for water on a meter
Not seen much fallout from Trump's tariffs in here. If i was American , it would feel like a masterstroke. I am not sure how accurate or manipulated Trump's figures are but , assuming they are correct, you can get his point about being ripped off. The impact of the tariffs in the short term will be inflation but i can see investment in America soaring. It is brilliant news for America and i think the E U will really suffer. This will be the first and only time Brexit will have had a benefit I am not sure how this will play out in tge ling term. In about 5 years time the infrastructure will be in place for American industry to benefit to the detriment of the developing world. I am not convinced that the US will see the immediate benefits in the Trump administration's action. I can see the EU going into recession. Economically this is a bold initiative for the US but i think the politcal fall out will be huge. It will make America great again but it will also make America hated. China must be furious with the tariffs but keen to exploit the situation. I am angry about this whilst also seeing that Americans will realise how bold the decision is for their country. Not sure how thr Democrats can opppose the sentiments of these measures.
I think you will find that most of the figures are pretty badly manipulated. They include things like local VAT - which obviously local business also pays. The projections I have seen show the US dip into recession in the next quarter. Potentially they could come out of this well in the next 4-10 years, but isn’t that what we were told about Brexit? If I was American I would worry that the rest of the world has other places it can trade with and they may find themselves a marginal player. China will benefit the most from these moves.
Funnily enough I was just coming on here to write something. I am crap at economics and its adjacent schools, so need a bit of help on this. Like you, I’m looking at it on the face of it and thinking - yeah, fair enough, why should the US be stiffed on tariffs like that. On the other hand, it’s going to be a world of pain to adjust the order of things to make it fairer. One thing that did make me chuckle though, and that they haven’t worked out - the reason people don’t buy American cars, is because they’re ****, and don’t work in Europe. There’s not a single made American car that doesn’t have a far better European or Asian alternative. The other point was on beef and poultry sales - the reason we don’t buy their poultry is that it’s stuffed full of hormones, and wouldn’t pass tests in the EU. Still, really interested to know people’s thoughts on this whole thing (but please no rehash of some twat screaming on Twitter). It’s difficult to be objective sometimes, because Trump is such a bellend of a human, but it does seem to make some sense on the face of it. As I say though, not in any way my area of expertise.
I think these tariffs will go down a treat in America. The announcement and the whole policy is not supposed to be for the benefit of the rest of the world. I do think it is the first sane thing Trump has done for his country but it will do alot of harm to their standing from a global political persepective
True to a point (I think there is still some residual trade between the two), but they have also slapped 10% tariffs on unpopulated islands so Russia is still an interesting omission.
IMO on the face of it, I agree with Ian that if you are American this does look like a good thing. They are being shafted with tariffs and reciprocal tariffs will eventually boost the US economy. It is indeed a bold move and IMO twenty years ago it would work 100%. The thing is, the world has changed. It is now a lot smaller. I give you an example, if I want to buy (I'm a home automation geek) a mmWave presence sensor from Amazon or a UK retailer it is £30. The exact same sensor from Ali Express delivered in 5 days is £8. Twenty years ago there is no way I could do that, or if I did, I would have to wait a month or two for it or buy in bulk. This is 1 sensor. My above example though is why the tariffs are in place. Rather than buying them from China, if they become more expensive (note i say expensive not more competitive), then that will encourage the UK (or US in this case) to assemble them locally and sell them. Eventually the locally made sensor will be cheaper than the £30 I would have paid for it due to basic laws of economies of scale etc. Where the tariffs will 'work' is that the demand for the exported to the US goods will fall as they will be too expensive. This is what will hurt other countries most. However, maybe this will bring new opportunities as more goods will be sold to other markets, I don't know. As LTL says though, if you are in the US and you want a luxury car, you will still want to buy a BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, Rolls Royce, Bentley etc...Ford's or GM's finest won't cut it. We can source things from elsewhere if we need to. Not straight away as supply chains are locked, but even in the medium term we can change where we get raw materials or finished goods. But this is where it upsets the world economy - in the medium term. I am no economist and am probably wrong on this in a lot of ways, but if I was American and willing to sit it out to the medium to long term, it is a good thing i feel.
Short term they will, maybe medium to longer they won't. Thing is, the orange one will be out of power by then (or let's face it at 80 odd maybe dead), so will they sit it out? As Loading said, Brexshit was meant to be good for us in the medium to long term, 9 years later is it? EDIT: Brexit is actually a good thing though for us in this instance!
It's a strange one, because it feels like a vote loser for his base, who are more likely to be living on a day-to-day basis than giving too many ****s about the long term. Risky. It's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out.
Problem is that Trump is so unpredictable and likely to switch position on a whim that none of the (relative) potential benefits of being on a lower tariff rate are likely to ever materialise.
He’s already announced more sanctions likely in Russia anyway. I assume he doesn’t see them as a trading partner. I think his ultimate ‘hidden’ goal in this has been to bring treasury yields down so that they can refinance their debt at a lower rate. Short term pain, for long term benefit. Ultimately a lot of the shrieking in the media about him being a bully etc is wrong, as he does have a fair point that the current tariffs are unfair. It has led to the American manufacturing base being hollowed out, and an over reliance on foreign nations for their defence materials. The big problem with this is that the tariffs are unfair because this is exactly what America wanted. They wanted countries to use the dollar. It’s been in their interest as the global empire to have this trade deficit. As the reserve currency they actually benefit a lot from this arrangement, which I notice Trump has been keen to avoid mentioning. This does feel like the end of the American Empire on the global stage; similar to the last throes of Ancient Rome… I am not sure if it will work. Too much damage has been done already; I am not sure if you can wave this magic wand and undo decades of change. The engineering and manufacturing base simply doesn’t exist anymore. However, America holds most of the cards as they account for 1/3rd of the worlds total consumption. Worth noting that the tariffs don’t kick in until the 9th to give people time to negotiate. A lot can still change. Going to be an interesting few weeks.
This reminds me of an interesting point about cars. I doubt it's part of Trump's thinking and I doubt the change will happen overnight, but I saw Rory Sutherland (the advertising guy) talking about Jaguar's rebrand, which a lot of people have called a disaster. He's not sure if it is actually a bad move because he thinks if electric vehicles really start to dominate the market that may be the end of luxury car brands. His argument is that a lot of the "luxury" element of cars comes from the engineering involved in the engines, but electric engines are far simpler than petrol engines, with far fewer parts that can be improved by engineering or come loose and start to rattle or whatever. This means there's less scope to improve performance or driving efficiency and experience. Rolls Royce used to advertise saying the loudest thing in the car was the clock, but that can be true of the cheapest electric car. Beyond the residual prestige of the brand name - which won't remain a selling point forever - and perhaps the interior of the car, it may well be much harder to make a car stand out.
Thanks Os - that was actually a good, informative post, and tallies with what Juliet Samuel is saying in The Times today (not shrieking - that’s where you couldn’t help yourself, which is a shame). As you say, it’s going to be interesting. Also tallies with the part that they seem to have forgotten when talking about a weak Europe, reliant on America, as post WW2 that’s what they were aiming for. We only finished paying off the Marshall Plan stuff in 2006, I believe.
