Play off permutations

Acun has said that he is constantly looking at the league and in the next three weeks will know of it is achievable.
I am rubbish at this sort of thing. Will we miss out if we lose more than 3 games?
What do you lot think it will take, besides a miracle?

 

Near miracle

 

Unfortunately I think we're just too far behind to reach the play offs, but should the miracle happen, I'd imagine the other teams would be very worried about us.

 

C’mon Kemps, my money’s on play offs and promotion, if thinking positive is good enough for Acun it should be good enough for all of us. Aim for the stars and hit the moon, which is where The Don once famously said we’d be the first to play.

 

The bookies seem to have us at between 150-1 and 250-1 (big spread) but they don't have to pay out on odds like that very often.

Not only would we need to be almost invincible for the rest of the season but a lot of teams higher up would need to have a bad 2nd half to the season too.

Avoid the relegation scrap. Hopefully get mid-table. Build for next year.

 

At 250s, if we had a good run there may be a little value in laying it off/cashing out.

 

While the actual threshold varies quite a bit year in year, in most seasons 75 points will get you into the Championship playoffs. So we would need around 43 points in our 18 remaining games - 13 wins and four draws maybe. If we don’t win the next three then it would be impractical, hence Acun’s challenge.

 

It's highly unlikely.

Not impossible but the probability is that it won't happen.


Take Boro who currently occupy sixth place. They are currently averaging 1.6 points a game. If they keep that up then they'll end up on 74 points. (They might not average that but it's probable that one of the chasing pack will).

74 points has been ballpark for the last 10 or so years in the Championship for sixth place.

Although the number has fluctuated between 70 and 80.


That means that we need to average 2.3 points a game over 18 games to equal them.

We need 42 points.

14 wins, 4 losses?

12 wins, 6 draws?

13 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses?

None of those scenarios seem likely.



None of this takes into account who has to play who, who'll suffer a catastrophic drop in form etc. It's just some fag packet numbers but it probably tells us all we need to know.

 

It's so unlikely that I booked a holiday flying out on the day of the playoff final. Booked it when we were ****. We're off to Turkey so there'd be a certain irony there if we did end up making it.

 

I like the 13/3/4 definitely achievable
Apart from Fulham who’ll more than likely go up first/second I’d not be afraid of any other teams including Bournemouth who we took 4 points off….

 

Shota when he took over at Pakhtakor went W12 D2 L2 after they started the season W6 D3 L5 I think it was, so he’s got previous..

 

Unfortunately we've only got 18 games not 20 (o:

 

It would take a miracle to get to the play offs….but miracles do happen (occasionally!)

we need to put one hell of a run together to get the momentum, win the next 5 & we are in the mix.

Dare to dream…..

 

If we win the next five we’ll have won as many as lost. With fewer draws than others, we’d be within touching distance of the play offs. Four wins out of next five would pretty much put us mid table. With a good run to the end of the season we could sneak in. But if we don’t keep the winning run going for the next four or five games it won’t be possible - so that’s his thinking, I guess.

 

Nah, not for me, too many games left for the odd thing to go wrong, bad run, injuries, etc. If we end up mid-table with no serious injuries and good prospects from the new signings we'll have a great squad for a push next season.

 

We are going up

 

I worked out the average points for 6th place in the last 8 seasons is 75.4 points.

That would be 43 points from 18 games. So you're talking 13 wins and 3 draws from 18 games. It's no impossible but it's vvery unlikely.

 

This was discussed recently, I think it's a bit silly to even be considering it but we'd need upwards of 14 from our last 18 games.

 

Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually happening are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.

 

We are only 13 points off. Win on Saturday and anything is possible.