Nottingham........

[oneforthebristolcity]

And give up with the 'you still don't get it'. You're the one who's displayed a lack of understanding of basic stats in the past 2 pages.

OK, so you believe I've wasted 2 pages not understanding stats..

So you have the basic understanding of stats which in your eyes are far superior to mine!

You believe that the stats given so far are 60,000 excess deaths, of which at least 44,000 maybe more (your words) are down to Covid. Leaving 16,000 other excess deaths so far this year...
So apart from Covid, we could be on course for a very low excess death rate for the year from anything else. Am I understanding your theory?

NB. Worth a read how they work out excess death rates
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/stati...ality-in-england-week-ending-18-Sep-2020.html

 

[RedorDead]

OK, so you believe I've wasted 2 pages not understanding stats..

So you have the basic understanding of stats which in your eyes are far superior to mine!

You believe that the stats given so far are 60,000 excess deaths, of which at least 44,000 maybe more (your words) are down to Covid. Leaving 16,000 other excess deaths so far this year...
So apart from Covid, we could be on course for a very low excess death rate for the year from anything else. Am I understanding your theory?

You praise the current government and see no fault but yet dispute the figures (that is released by the government) and Covid is a fragment of our imagination so Trump can win the election.

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

Bristol was not particularly hit hard by covid, like a few parts of Wales. Yet Newport was at one point the highest per population outside London.
Rather than dispute it all as a conspiracy theory, be grateful that your daughter in law did not have to experience what the nurses in Newport had to.

Not sure why Newport would be hit hard, but there will be various reasons for that...
But it may be a good idea that I bow out of this topic as I Imagine you've all had enough of my opinion about it all.
I'm not going to be sucked in like some regarding this so say Pandemic just because some misleading stats are thrown up in the air, just so we can be controlled. I personally think that most of it is BS......which is affecting so many other lives, businesses, jobs, education, other people that have serious illnesses and of course the economy..Maybe I'm on my own, but until they produce facts with actual deaths from Covid and what we're really dealing with then I'm not buying it..

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

You praise the current government and see no fault but yet dispute the figures (that is released by the government) and Covid is a fragment of our imagination so Trump can win the election.

They have to be seen to be doing the right thing ROD...being led by pressure from the biased media and medical advisers even though they are unsure of it's nature.....again the medical experts have to be seen to advise the best way through it..

 

[Jiffie]

What Covid regulations have Manchester not adhered to which Liverpool did?

What money was it that he used to threaten legal action? And was it in any way comparable to the £60m amount he needed to protect the city?

I've not heard this so interested to see if I got the wrong side of it.

Where to start with Manchester, block parties, raves, crowded clubs, street parties, student covid parties, after London the party capital of the UK and then they wonder why the R rate is so high? 1.2 to 1.5.

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

You must log in or register to see images

That is excess deaths since 2000. Remember, no doctor, no explanation as to how they died, just the number of those who died above average. Things to note:

- This is a five-year moving average. We have had 60,000 more deaths than the average of the preceding 5 years
- That final bar, the Covid one, is in HALF of the time that the other bars were recorded
- Every other bar includes the winter, where more deaths occur. The final bar hasn't even reached that yet

I'm not really sure what your point is, that people aren't dying of Covid? This is indisputable proof. We've got a new record, in half the time, with the worst half to come.

Just been having a read, excess death rates are an estimate of what is expected in a given week from one year to another based over a 5 year average . not produced and much more complex than you've suggested... So at the peak of the pandemic, the excess deaths were very high, probably the figure you are quoting.....but if the following week the estimated death rate was much lower than the excess death rate would fall..
Basically we won't know the overall excess death rate until the year is over. or beyond.
Of course, using Covid as a statistic, pushed that excess death rate up to what was estimated..
It's not black and white as you put it......in fact it's possible that excess death rates over the year could be less than previous...
You think I don't understand stats, I think you have the problem understanding and also have a problem how it's worked out....

 

[Angelicnumber16]

Where to start with Manchester, block parties, raves, crowded clubs, street parties, student covid parties, after London the party capital of the UK and then they wonder why the R rate is so high? 1.2 to 1.5.

And also inhabitants in Manchester/Greater Manchester and Liverpool who won't do as they are told and deliberately flout the guidance being given. Massive egos and all think they're bullet proof.

Or maybe they're just plain ignorant.

 

[Jiffie]

So what do we know about the antecedence of Saint Andy Burnham.

Well we know that between June 2009 and May 2010 he was the health secretary under Gordon Brown and championed privatising parts of the NHS and in fact before the 2010 general election Hinchinbrooke hospital in Cambridgeshire was put out for private tender and the tories inherited an unstoppable process that left them with 3 tenders that had been accepted by Burnham and Brown.

Fast forward to 2014 and Burnham misled parliament in greasy attempt to imitate his former leader Gordon Brown in a ‘not me guv’ moment and weasel his way out of what he had done. Another failed politician Nick Clegg was overseeing PMQ’s on that day.

Here is the letter that Clegg later that day sent to Burnham.



Dear Andy,

I see that you raised a Point of Order in the House of Commons and that you accused me of “sheer inaccuracy”. I am always happy to confirm the accuracy of what I have said.

You said that “when the previous Government left office there was still an NHS bidder in the competition.” That is simply not true.

These are the facts.

On 26 March 2010, that is before the General Election and while you were still Health Secretary, the three organisations shortlisted for the contract to run Hinchingbrooke Hospital were Circle Health, Ramsay Health Care UK and Serco Health – all of which are non-NHS organisations.

The NAO report of the bidding process published on 8 November 2012 clearly states that in December 2009 there were only 3 bidders left in the process – Circle Health, Ramsay Health Care UK and Serco Health. It says on page 20 that the “the two NHS trusts involved both withdrew at early stages of the process.”

When making your Point of Order, you may have been referring to the fact that the Serco bid included working with the Peterborough and Stamford NHS Foundation Trust. Given it is clear that the actual bidder was Serco, I suggest that you are stretching the boundaries of accuracy to their very limit.

As you can see, I very much stand by what I said at Prime Minister’s Questions in the House of Commons today. You asked if I had inadvertently misled the House of Commons. I would suggest that by misquoting what I said, it may be you who has inadvertently misled the House of Commons. Given that the facts are as I have outlined above, I wonder if you would be prepared to set the record straight yourself?

Nick Clegg



And the rest is history, the hospital lasted less than a year and the NHS had to retake the reins.

Burnham a scouser later became the mayor Manchester, which is beyond irony.

And Clegg became an employee of FaceBook for nice little earner of 4mil per year, in another supreme irony.

 

[realred1952]

Basically we won't know the overall excess death rate until the year is over. or beyond.

. Massive egos and all think they're bullet proof.

Or maybe they're just plain ignorant.

in order ….
maybe they're just plain ignorant
Massive egos
all think they're bullet proof. [possibly because they are not dead yet ]

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

in order ….
maybe they're just plain ignorant
Massive egos
all think they're bullet proof. [possibly because they are not dead yet ]

What I am unable to find (even on ONS), but would be really interesting is the number of excess deaths for the same specific period 2017/2018 which would show roughly where we're at..

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

My point exactly

You must log in or register to see media

You must log in or register to see media

 

[BCFCRob]

OK, so you believe I've wasted 2 pages not understanding stats..

So you have the basic understanding of stats which in your eyes are far superior to mine!

You believe that the stats given so far are 60,000 excess deaths, of which at least 44,000 maybe more (your words) are down to Covid. Leaving 16,000 other excess deaths so far this year...
So apart from Covid, we could be on course for a very low excess death rate for the year from anything else. Am I understanding your theory?

NB. Worth a read how they work out excess death rates
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/stati...ality-in-england-week-ending-18-Sep-2020.html

No, you're not. Because if we're already 16,000 up in just 6 months (without Covid), imagine how many it will be following the winter period, when Covid could arguably take hold even further.

Just been having a read, excess death rates are an estimate of what is expected in a given week from one year to another based over a 5 year average .

I have already mentioned this to you one for. This is not new, only to you! This, yet again, shows you aren't understanding! It's a moving 5-year average. I said this on the last page.

Your next bit, saying it could go down over the rest of the year. Of course it could. I haven't got a crystal ball, no one really knows how Covid will behave in the coming months. But a fair prediction is that it will be even worse over the winter, and I'll trust the scientists on it.

I need to stop wasting my time on this anyway, it's killing me having to explain this to you time and again. The mere fact that no one has rushed to your defence when usually I have 5 people pillaging me should tell you all you need to know about how wrong you've got this. Sorry to be rude but I just can't bear this daftness. We disagree a lot, but I like you and usually get on with you as a poster. Maybe we should just park this.

 

[BCFCRob]

Rob
The money given to Manchester is the same in proportion to those affected elsewhere.
Same goes for Lancashire and now the Yorkshire/Sheffield area.

It's just the Burnham ego that's causing the hold up.

It wasn't at the time. At the time, during negotiations they were being offered less than a third of what was given to Liverpool or something like that. The way I saw it, he was being held to ransom - accept what we give you (£7.85 per person is what it amounted to at the time), or you get nothing. The Government basically playing chicken with their own people.

You must log in or register to see media

As it turns out, they gave him the amount anyway. It was all just a power ploy. Nothing more.

I don't really care for Burnham (I think he was quite good for the Hillsborough families to be fair), but I don't really see what he's done wrong here. Seems like he had the balls to stand up for his city, I think our mayor could learn from him.

 

[Jiffie]

It wasn't at the time. At the time, during negotiations they were being offered less than a third of what was given to Liverpool or something like that. The way I saw it, he was being held to ransom - accept what we give you (£7.85 per person is what it amounted to at the time), or you get nothing. The Government basically playing chicken with their own people.

You must log in or register to see media

As it turns out, they gave him the amount anyway. It was all just a power ploy. Nothing more.

I don't really care for Burnham (I think he was quite good for the Hillsborough families to be fair), but I don't really see what he's done wrong here. Seems like he had the balls to stand up for his city, I think our mayor could learn from him.

Burnham and the government he was part of saddled the NHS with huge debt by industrial use of PFI's (something that they voted against in opposition).

Private investors like Octagon lent the NHS 13billion and when these contracts end in around 2050 and they will have received 80billion in payments, Norwich hospital pays 60mil per year in repayments alone, Bristol's Southmead hospital pays 51mil a year, the interest rates are bordering on what loan sharks charge and the chances of clearing that debt is next to impossible, so thanks for that labour and Andy Burnham.

Oh yes and along the way 1 million more children were pushed into poverty under a labour government.

Burnham tried a stunt of pretending whilst giving a live press conference, that he had received a text stating that the government would not submit to his blackmail, when in fact he knew that earlier in the day and now he is cutting a figure of somebody who realises that he may have burnt his bridges with this government with his grandstanding and has invited Johnson up to Manchester for 'clear the air talks' (code for mass violent red fascist demos and the high Manc R rate going up even higher). He's a diamond.

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

No, you're not. Because if we're already 16,000 up in just 6 months (without Covid), imagine how many it will be following the winter period, when Covid could arguably take hold even further.



I have already mentioned this to you one for. This is not new, only to you! This, yet again, shows you aren't understanding! It's a moving 5-year average. I said this on the last page.

Your next bit, saying it could go down over the rest of the year. Of course it could. I haven't got a crystal ball, no one really knows how Covid will behave in the coming months. But a fair prediction is that it will be even worse over the winter, and I'll trust the scientists on it.

I need to stop wasting my time on this anyway, it's killing me having to explain this to you time and again. The mere fact that no one has rushed to your defence when usually I have 5 people pillaging me should tell you all you need to know about how wrong you've got this. Sorry to be rude but I just can't bear this daftness. We disagree a lot, but I like you and usually get on with you as a poster. Maybe we should just park this.

Try finding the peak excess deaths in the same time period of other years, especially 2017/2018 when hospital corridors were rammed and we had the highest death rate for 40 years, then come back to me with a compassion.
Misleading figures of 44,000 covid deaths is pure scaremongering. I bet that the peak weeks of excess death rates back in 2017/18 do not show flu being the main cause of death or registered as such.
Do they show the numbers of deaths to people that have died because they have been unable to have treatment for serious illnesses? But Covid's a good one to add to the list.....It's BS

It's a moving 5-year average. I said this on the last page.
It's a lot more complex than that my friend, so many factors are considered, to each week of a given time period for them to estimate what the death rate could be. There's pages of the stuff how they generate the expected numbers..Just one out of thousands listed, we've had record amount of people that are considered to be obese, but those that die because of it, are likely to be registered of heart failure or other causes.....now, why one rule for one but not the other? .....I suggest you research it a bit more of how it works and you will see why you're allowing the wool to be nicely placed over your eyes!!!

If the excess deaths, once this year has been calculated is shown to be less than 50,000, would you admit that this disruption to peoples lives, mental health, jobs, economic disaster has all been a load of BS and is no worse than a bad flu year??

Not sure how old you are, but I feel much younger than me......It's the likes of you and the younger generation that will be footing the bill for all of this...

 

[bcfcredandwhite]

On a positive note; we could be out of this in 2 months time.....
(Ok it’s the Daily Mail, but it’s nice to see something positive in the news for a change!!


Oxford vaccine works perfectly by safely triggering an immune response


https://mol.im/a/8870023

 

[realred1952]

What I am unable to find (even on ONS), but would be really interesting is the number of excess deaths for the same specific period 2017/2018 which would show roughly where we're at..

ONS is not the easiest place to negotiate often info is filed under a specific … where as google ebay or other sites may say "do you mean" or pick up a couple of the words you request. within a like wise request[ONS] you may be looking for "deaths due to heart attack and gives you a link or reference clue to something else" for 2019 ……………. the latest table ...

• In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales, a decrease of 2.0% compared with 2018 (541,589 deaths).

• Taking into account the population size and age structure, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in England and Wales decreased significantly, by 3.7% for males and 4.7% for females.

• The difference between the number of deaths in males and females has been reducing, and in 2019 it decreased to an all time low of 241 deaths (265,300 male deaths and 265,541 female deaths).

• The North East was the region of England with the highest mortality rates and London was the region with the lowest, for both males and females.

• Deaths due to Dementia and Alzheimer disease decreased for the first time since 2009, but it remained the leading cause of death, accounting for 12.5% of all deaths registered in 2019.

• Similar to previous years, Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of death for males (13.1% of all male deaths), while in females the leading cause of death was Dementia and Alzheimer disease (16.1% of all female deaths).

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

ONS is not the easiest place to negotiate often info is filed under a specific … where as google ebay or other sites may say "do you mean" or pick up a couple of the words you request. within a like wise request[ONS] you may be looking for "deaths due to heart attack and gives you a link or reference clue to something else" for 2019 ……………. the latest table ...

• In 2019, there were 530,841 deaths registered in England and Wales, a decrease of 2.0% compared with 2018 (541,589 deaths).

• Taking into account the population size and age structure, age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) in England and Wales decreased significantly, by 3.7% for males and 4.7% for females.

• The difference between the number of deaths in males and females has been reducing, and in 2019 it decreased to an all time low of 241 deaths (265,300 male deaths and 265,541 female deaths).

• The North East was the region of England with the highest mortality rates and London was the region with the lowest, for both males and females.

• Deaths due to Dementia and Alzheimer disease decreased for the first time since 2009, but it remained the leading cause of death, accounting for 12.5% of all deaths registered in 2019.

• Similar to previous years, Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of death for males (13.1% of all male deaths), while in females the leading cause of death was Dementia and Alzheimer disease (16.1% of all female deaths).

But doesn't show excess death rates at the peak period weeks in any given bad year such as 2017-2018 for compassion.....and so to pluck them out the sky now is a nonsense........we can only see the affect once the figures are out for the whole year....Rob keeps stressing but we have winter months to contend with, but that means nothing as it's quite possible that these following weeks have already been allowed for, so won't add to the excess deaths, could even bring them down..
Registering every death in the 44,000 that tested positive as a Covid death, is not only misleading, scaremongering and a way of controlling, it takes away the real reason why these people died.........
Here's how to be unpopular, I bet (sportsman's as I don't gamble!) , less than 10% of those 44.000 actually died of Covid........I await the backlash!!

 

[oneforthebristolcity]

On a positive note; we could be out of this in 2 months time.....
(Ok it’s the Daily Mail, but it’s nice to see something positive in the news for a change!!


Oxford vaccine works perfectly by safely triggering an immune response


https://mol.im/a/8870023

lol How convenient!!......................

 

[BCFCRob]

But doesn't show excess death rates at the peak period weeks in any given bad year such as 2017-2018 for compassion.....and so to pluck them out the sky now is a nonsense........we can only see the affect once the figures are out for the whole year....Rob keeps stressing but we have winter months to contend with, but that means nothing as it's quite possible that these following weeks have already been allowed for, so won't add to the excess deaths, could even bring them down..

This has gone on for so long now I'm bored of it onefor, so this is the final time I'll address it. I see what you mean here, but according to the ONS, the five-year moving average moves on a weekly basis, not a yearly. It specifically says it compares to the "corresponding week". So my point still stands, and it would still be expected to get worse over the winter. Impossible to say, but it is probable based on how Covid affects people in a similar manner to flu.

Anyways, I'm done on this point. My brain is frazzled, this is a boring topic to focus on, and we've done it to death. Let's agree to disagree.

Not sure how old you are, but I feel much younger than me......It's the likes of you and the younger generation that will be footing the bill for all of this...

And yet those countries that locked down early have shown that it isn't actually a trade-off between economy v health. If you nail the health down, the economy stays strong. We have done neither.

And as for footing the bill.... My generation and those younger than me already have it the hardest in terms of affording somewhere to live, and thanks to the older generations we will be paying off Brexit until I die.