4.15 Kempton
Ducal 13/2 NAP
If it wasn't for his wide draw in stall 13 I'd be investing a significant wager on this fella but I still think he has a cracking chance of landing this prize. Ducal is an unexposed 4 year old who has made a bright start to his career for trainer Mike Murphy after previously being with Sir Mark Prescott. After winning once from 6 starts as 3 year old for Prescott, Ducal was very well backed on his debut for his current yard back in December over 7f to be sent off favourite. He had to travel very wide that day and the trainer said afterwards that as a result he ran out of gas. He was beaten by 2.25L and the form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner scoring off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Lastkingofscotland, who reopposes tomorrow off the same terms as this race, has won off a 7lb higher mark.
Off a mark of 75, Ducal landed his 2nd career success over C+D on the 1st of March to run out a 0.5L winner on the back of a 4month break. Under the handling of John Fahy, Ducal was dropped out the back before being given a very, very confident ride to get up close home after travelling into the race very well. To my eyes, Ducal had a lot left in the tank that day and he proved it on is next start. Up 5lb for that victory and on his 2nd last start, Ducal put in an extremely game performance to win off his revised mark of 80. After hitting the front about 2f out, he showed gritty determination to hold off all challengers on both sides to score by 0.5L. In a race where he looked like he was always holding his rivals, the form has worked out very well. The 3rd Haamaat scored impressively on his only subsequent start off a 2lb higher mark and the 5th won off a 1lb lower after this.
LTO Ducal was a rather unlucky loser in my eyes. Off a mark of 83, which he has again today, he was a step slow leaving the stalls and as a result had to settle for a position in the rear of the field. After being angled out wide, Ducal took a while to get fully motoring (which is normal) and he was never closer than at the finish when he was beaten by only half a length. The form of that race is ok (1st and 3rd reoppose here today) but I'm more than sure that Ducal is still very progressive and is more than capable of landing an event off this mark. He's an incredibly consistent animal, finishing beaten 2.25L or less in each of his 8 handicap runs to date so you know your going to get a very good run for your money. Moreover, he clearly loves it around here with his last 3 starts, consisting of 2 wins and a 0.56L defeat, coming over C+D and its a huge positive that he is coming back to somewhere he is tried and tested. Trainer Mike Murphy has his horses in outstanding order at present which is a huge positive. Although jockey John Fahy's absence tomorrow (I'm presuming he's banned) is a negative as he knows the horse very well, Pat Dobbs is a more than able deputy. Really hate his draw in stall 13 but he doesn't need to front run so hopefully Dobbs can get him a midfield sit if breaking well. I'm very confident of a big run and 13/2 looks a very fair price as Ducal looks to get back to winning ways.
Ducal 13/2 NAP
If it wasn't for his wide draw in stall 13 I'd be investing a significant wager on this fella but I still think he has a cracking chance of landing this prize. Ducal is an unexposed 4 year old who has made a bright start to his career for trainer Mike Murphy after previously being with Sir Mark Prescott. After winning once from 6 starts as 3 year old for Prescott, Ducal was very well backed on his debut for his current yard back in December over 7f to be sent off favourite. He had to travel very wide that day and the trainer said afterwards that as a result he ran out of gas. He was beaten by 2.25L and the form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner scoring off a 6lb higher mark and the 3rd Lastkingofscotland, who reopposes tomorrow off the same terms as this race, has won off a 7lb higher mark.
Off a mark of 75, Ducal landed his 2nd career success over C+D on the 1st of March to run out a 0.5L winner on the back of a 4month break. Under the handling of John Fahy, Ducal was dropped out the back before being given a very, very confident ride to get up close home after travelling into the race very well. To my eyes, Ducal had a lot left in the tank that day and he proved it on is next start. Up 5lb for that victory and on his 2nd last start, Ducal put in an extremely game performance to win off his revised mark of 80. After hitting the front about 2f out, he showed gritty determination to hold off all challengers on both sides to score by 0.5L. In a race where he looked like he was always holding his rivals, the form has worked out very well. The 3rd Haamaat scored impressively on his only subsequent start off a 2lb higher mark and the 5th won off a 1lb lower after this.
LTO Ducal was a rather unlucky loser in my eyes. Off a mark of 83, which he has again today, he was a step slow leaving the stalls and as a result had to settle for a position in the rear of the field. After being angled out wide, Ducal took a while to get fully motoring (which is normal) and he was never closer than at the finish when he was beaten by only half a length. The form of that race is ok (1st and 3rd reoppose here today) but I'm more than sure that Ducal is still very progressive and is more than capable of landing an event off this mark. He's an incredibly consistent animal, finishing beaten 2.25L or less in each of his 8 handicap runs to date so you know your going to get a very good run for your money. Moreover, he clearly loves it around here with his last 3 starts, consisting of 2 wins and a 0.56L defeat, coming over C+D and its a huge positive that he is coming back to somewhere he is tried and tested. Trainer Mike Murphy has his horses in outstanding order at present which is a huge positive. Although jockey John Fahy's absence tomorrow (I'm presuming he's banned) is a negative as he knows the horse very well, Pat Dobbs is a more than able deputy. Really hate his draw in stall 13 but he doesn't need to front run so hopefully Dobbs can get him a midfield sit if breaking well. I'm very confident of a big run and 13/2 looks a very fair price as Ducal looks to get back to winning ways.
