I will try and restrict my wagering to the graded races so here goes:
1:15 Leopardstown - Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2). There are a couple of reasons for thinking Bapaume can turn around the Fairyhouse form with Landofhopeandglory. Firstly, the ground on St Stephen's Day will be much more testing than at Fairyhouse and I think this will suit Bapaume (dotted up by 7 lengths on his 2nd run in France on very soft) more than Landofhopeandglory, whose best form is all on a sound surface. Secondly, that was Bapaume's first run for Willie Mullins and he gave the impression he will come on for the run. It is tight between the 2 at the top of the market with Landofhopeandglory just edging favouritism at 7/4 ahead of Bapaume at 2/1.
1:50 Wetherby - Rowland Meryck Handicap Chase (Grade 3). As always, this is a very competitive affair but I think it will play out between the top 2 in the market, Blaklion and Yala Enki, with slight preference for the latter. Blaklion is a very smart horse but hard races in the Charlie Hall and Hennessy may well have left their mark and, even with Jamie Bargarry claiming 3lbs, it is a big ask for hm here off top weight. Yala Enki, on the other hand, hardly broke sweat in landing the Tommy Whittle on British chase debut off top weight. He is up 10lbs for that victory (effectively 12lbs as Charlie Deutsch has lost 2lbs of his claim) but such was his dominance at Haydock that he must go very close here.
2.00 Limerick - Shannon Airport Novice Chase (Grade 2). This looks to be a case of "If Bellshill jumps, he wins".
2:05 Kempton - Kauto Star Novices Chase (Grade 1). Better known as the Feltham, this looks an above-average renewal with 7 of the 10 runners rated above 140 and the 4YO Frodon (who gets 7lbs weight-for-age) rated 153 after his victory in the Caspian Gold Cup. Only 1 other 4YO has won this in the last 40 years (Mr. Henderson's Long Run) but Frodon comes here with a favourites chance on official ratings. My concern would be that this is already the 6th race of the season for him. Anibale Fly brings top Irish novice form to the race, finishing 2 lengths second to Coney Island in the Drinmore with some decent types behind including Alpha Des Obeaux and Diamond King. Two recent Doncaster winners, Might Bite and Present Man (who will enjoy going right handed having jumped right throughout) should also be involved at the business end. All things considered, I think Frodon can take this for Paul Nicholls, who reports him to be in the form of his life.
2:20 Leopardstown - Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1). I strongly fancy Identity Thief to get the better of Min here. Henry De Bromhead's Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner has jumped impeccably on 2 starts over fences and comfortably beat stablemates Ordinary World and Attribution in the fog at Punchestown last time. Attribution has since won the Grade 3 Klairon Davis Novice Chase from Briar Hill, giving the form a solid look. Min could do no more than win easily at Navan on chase debut but the bare form looks nothing special and the yard seem to be taking a little longer than usual to hit top gear.
2:40 Kempton - Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1). The New One put up a very nice performance last time out to give My Tent Or Yours 8lbs and a beating at Cheltenam. His jumping has noticeably improved and he seemed to thrive under forceful riding tactics. If STD goes off in front and uses his stamina he will be very difficult to pass. I expect any thoughts of Yanworth going to the Champion Hurdle to be finally expelled here and fully expect The New One to triumph.
3:15 Kemtpon - King George VI Steeple Chase (Grade 1). A fascinating clash between stablemates Cue Card and Thistlecrack. My head says Cue Card, the reigning champ and hugely impressive winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock, whereas my heart is firmly with Thistlecrack. I can't split them any more than the bookies seem to be able to so the logical play is the reverse forecast, I simply don't see the others getting anywhere near.
(not strictly possible, but still ....)
