but we will be really light again like you said
i wonder who we are waiting for to replace these CL and league legends.LFC Stats and Analytics
- Thread starter Jimmy Squarefoot
- Start date
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but we will be really light again like you said
i wonder who we are waiting for to replace these CL and league legends.
but we will be really light again like you said
I want Raphinha for attack.
Then another CM to cover Fab and also play LCM. Bellingham or Tchouameni pls
We won't get Raphina imo (I'd like him too).
Like Bellingham as well but will cost too much.
Definitely [HASHTAG]#savingformbappe[/HASHTAG] though
I told you that the list is need to know so we can do our business.
Rapinha is not a priority as we have salah. And even if you played him on the other side you already have our real target Diaz.
Bellingham is over priced. End of. Lfc do not spend 70-100 mil on unproven players.
Tchouameni is a defensive midfielder but there's about 40 of those linked to us. The real target is closely guarded secret right now. I really shouldn't even be telling you he is not one
Technically, every player in the world is on Liverpool's list, we have have a substantial scouting setup
technically you are not far wrong in terms of the input list to the scouting process. the output artefact is a rather shorter list.
Interesting analysis which looks at the correlation between the expected points vs xG difference (which is expected goals minus expected goals conceded)
E.g. getting a xG diff of 1 is more likely to result in getting 2 points
Now let's look at how the top 3 teams are doing:
As you can, City and Liverpool are seriously good at creating chances and not conceding many chances - which is resulted in us being well ahead of the rest.
Chelsea are good but they were massively over-performing all metrics earlier on this season before levelling off back to their norm.
E.g. getting a xG diff of 1 is more likely to result in getting 2 points
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Now let's look at how the top 3 teams are doing:
As you can, City and Liverpool are seriously good at creating chances and not conceding many chances - which is resulted in us being well ahead of the rest.
Chelsea are good but they were massively over-performing all metrics earlier on this season before levelling off back to their norm.
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correlation is not necessarily causation. if someone is going to draw a random curve you have to suspect it. this type of thing should be a scatter plot.
Xg is all well and good but if you've a shovel foot of a striker like lukaku or a mount or a havertz then good XG is useless as they miss.
y = f(x)
thats what you are saying yeah?
more points = function of higher XG.
so you need to play all the games xg data on a scatterplot and then show if it does have a strong correlation. just a line means nowt.
bump.
bottom half update:
Games played 16
Goals scored 47
Goal conceded 6
Games won 14
Games drawn 1
Games lost 0
Win ratio 88%
Draw ratio 6%
Loss ratio 0%
Goals per game 2.9375
Goals conceded per game 0.375
remaining games:
Villa
Newcastle
Everton
Southampton
top half update:
Games played 15
Goals scored 30
Goal conceded 15
Games won 7
Games drawn 6
Games lost 2
Win ratio 47%
Draw ratio 40%
Loss ratio 13%
Goals per game 2
Goals conceded per game 1.0
remaining games
Man Utd
Spurs
wolves
I think the message all year has been now very much consistent.
We concede double the goals against top half sides.
Our record is
chelsea 1-1, 2-2
City 2-2, 2-2
Brighton 2-2 -2-0
Spurs 2-2
West ham 2-3, 1-0
Just too many goals going in in this group but the games v bottom half are tantamount to abuse. 3 goals per game for 0.375 against AND 3 of the 6 conceded were v Brentford off fluke hoofs across landing perfectly.
bottom half update:
Games played 16
Goals scored 47
Goal conceded 6
Games won 14
Games drawn 1
Games lost 0
Win ratio 88%
Draw ratio 6%
Loss ratio 0%
Goals per game 2.9375
Goals conceded per game 0.375
remaining games:
Villa
Newcastle
Everton
Southampton
top half update:
Games played 15
Goals scored 30
Goal conceded 15
Games won 7
Games drawn 6
Games lost 2
Win ratio 47%
Draw ratio 40%
Loss ratio 13%
Goals per game 2
Goals conceded per game 1.0
remaining games
Man Utd
Spurs
wolves
I think the message all year has been now very much consistent.
We concede double the goals against top half sides.
Our record is
chelsea 1-1, 2-2
City 2-2, 2-2
Brighton 2-2 -2-0
Spurs 2-2
West ham 2-3, 1-0
Just too many goals going in in this group but the games v bottom half are tantamount to abuse. 3 goals per game for 0.375 against AND 3 of the 6 conceded were v Brentford off fluke hoofs across landing perfectly.
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City lost to Chelsea and spurs. 2 draws with us.
LFC have drawn with chelsea twice, city tice and spurs 1 once.
the form table of top games does not really favour man utd or spurs here as the season closes out but i think the frailty of the LFC system against top sides is clear enough in terms of changes given so I kind of expect to see us play both these home games in dramatic fashion at the very least.
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I think this tells the story. City have conceded just 10 goals v the non super league team (basically all they have left to play) thats 0.5gpg while scoring 51 = 2.43gpg.
LFc are really looking for a spawny 0-1 result by some side like brighton in the next couple of weeks as the games pile on for city.
City have by far the easier run in and have played out their top 6 games.
LFC losses to Leistester 0-1 and west ham 2-3 are the difference between the sides.
City's recent loss to spurs is one thing that can ahappen but draws to palace and southampton might give some hope that they might get caught on an off day and not score.
really though the amount of beach ready teams they play is not good. wolves and west ham are they only two with any sort of anything on the line.
they play watford as well but there's more chance of a lightening strike making pep's hair stand on end than Watford getting a point.
