Grand National Pointers?

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Istabraq said:
Does he look an Aintree horse to you? Even AP as stated in the past he doesnt have the scope to win or run in a Grand National. What if he didn't return after the race? God forbid it does happen is it worth running him in an handicap before his rating does rise, Which is going to happen anyway? I don't see why they need to run Synchronised in the National after winning the Gold Cup. If he gets round I will be certainly suprised, The Gold Cup is a gruelling gruelling race. The liklihood of past champions getting back to the National and winning is slim nevermind running in the Grand National and then attempting it. If he was My horse He'd be stuck away. He deserves it, Lets be fair...
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Alternatively, we have seen horses place in the Gold Cup and go on and finish placed in the Grand National, Hedgehunter did it in 2006 for instance and did so carrying top weight like Synchronised will, so why shouldn't they run a horse that has been seen in great form over the staying trips in the Welsh National in the past?

I don't buy this idea of the Gold Cup being a gruelling race, it was a honest race but I don't think it takes a horse any longer to get over the race than it does to get over any other top grade staying chase, and he has had a month to do so, more than the time Hedgehunter had in 2006.

Personally I have stated that I don't think he will win another race in his career, but that is just my opinion and I don't see him as a Grand National winner. However, that isn't the point, the point is that the connections are taking a calculated risk, running a horse in the biggest race in the world off a handicap mark which means he is 6lbs+ well in on what the official handicapper thinks he is capable of. Instead of giving horses like Ballabriggs half a stone, he is giving him a pound, and that surely means that this is their best opportunity of winning the Grand National with the horse.

He has only had four races this season (five last season) so its hard to suggest that they are overracing him and he hasn't been running over extremes this season either, probably meaning he is a much fresher horse than he was last season.

Past Gold Cup horses often reappear in the race next season, and lets face it, they will give him time off and then start the preparations again after the Grand National, I doubt that he will be any less likely to turn up for the race than he would if he ran in a Melling Chase or something similar to finish his season.

As for is it worth running him before his mark rises, well as the prize money is ridiculous and the prestige even bigger, then surely it is worth it. If he wins by less than 6 lengths you could say that he only won because they ran him off his old mark...

If he was yours, you wouldn't go for the prestige and prize money of the Grand National with a horse you probably think was a shade lucky to win the Gold Cup? I certainly would tilt at the windmill.
 
NassauBoard said:
I don't buy this idea of the Gold Cup being a gruelling race, it was a honest race but I don't think it takes a horse any longer to get over the race than it does to get over any other top grade staying chase, and he has had a month to do so, more than the time Hedgehunter had in 2006.
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But crucially, less time than he had to get over the Lexus and into the Irish Hennesey I think? So it shouldn't be enough (unless you think he had an easier race in the Gold Cup than the Lexus?)...
 
The horse came back from Leopardstown not quite right. He´d caught a chill and wasn´t well at all. He´s not a big robust horse and he needs minding and time between his races. Everyone at the place put their shoulders to the wheel over getting him right,gave it everything. It was really only in the past few days that he really came to himself, came right. He was like a flower who finally bloomed.-Jonjo O´Neill, trainer. 16th March.


That was the reasoning for missing the Irish Hennessy rather than the pure amount of time.
 
NassauBoard said:
I don't buy this idea of the Gold Cup being a gruelling race, it was a honest race but I don't think it takes a horse any longer to get over the race than it does to get over any other top grade staying chase, and he has had a month to do so, more than the time Hedgehunter had in 2006.
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I think any championship race at Cheltenham takes alot out of the horse, As I previously stated in an earlier post the last horse to win a race at the Cheltenham Festival and then go on to win the National was in 1961 (Rough Quest) I know stats are there to be broken but thats one of many standing in the way of Synchronised and National victory.

Are connections sending him there thinking He as a chance of victory or hoping he can run into a place? Obviously nobody sends a horse into a race not to win but surely running off top weight is a big ask espcially after the Gold Cup!

As you know most horses aimed at the Grand National have had it layed out all year long, The National was an after thought for Synchronised and I just cannot see how he's going to be in peak condition after his exploits this year and go there to do himself justice. He must have the constitution of brick wall if he does. I wouldn't send any horse over the National fences just to get placed. Top weight, Gold Cup winner. I'd be suprised if he makes the first 7...
 
NassauBoard said:
I don't buy this idea of the Gold Cup being a gruelling race, it was a honest race but I don't think it takes a horse any longer to get over the race than it does to get over any other top grade staying chase, and he has had a month to do so, more than the time Hedgehunter had in 2006.
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Have you seen James Pyman's piece in the Racing Post today?
 
It was analysing the record of top 4 finishers in Championship races at the Festival and how they went on to perform at Aintree. Anyway, the point is that the Gold Cup had the worst record of the lot for a hefty level stakes loss. The examples of horses flopping afterwards are all too numerous. Synchronised looks a prime candidate to add his name to that long list.
 
Dont worry wasnt having ago! Of the bigger price horses he is the most likely jumped well at this years festival but the stat goes against him and also falling last year, horses dont forget and are abit wary which you cant jump these fence half hearted or not 100% And for that reason Im out!
 
From Sporting Life;

Ruby Walsh has decided to ride On His Own in the John Smith's Grand National next week.

The leading jockey, who had several choices in the famous race at Aintree, has plumped for Graham Wylie's Thyestes Chase winner.

Trained by Willie Mullins, the eight-year-old has been leased by Wylie to a charity for the day and confidence must now be high in the camp.

Originally it looked as if Walsh would be riding Prince De Beauchene, also owned by Wylie and trained by Mullins, but he was ruled out of the race through injury last week.

Walsh could also have chosen Seabass, trained by his father, Ted Walsh, or Paul Nicholls' Neptune Collonges, who will now be ridden by Daryl Jacob.

The news of Walsh's decision was broken by Mullins on his website, wpmullins.com, which read: "After some pleasing work on the gallops this week, Ruby has decided to ride On His Own in the Grand National."

On His Own had drifted to around 60/1 briefly on the exchanges on Friday night but on Saturday morning he had settled at around the 20/1 mark.

Writing in his column in the Irish Examiner, Walsh revealed he would not have been comfortable not riding for either Mullins or Nicholls, and that his sister, Katie, will now ride Seabass.

"Willie wanted me to ride for him, Paul Nicholls was anxious I go with Neptune Collonges and, of course, there was also my father's Seabass to consider," said Walsh.

"But I had to be very professional about this and just wouldn't feel comfortable not riding for either Willie Or Paul.

"I harbour doubts about Seabass getting four and a half miles in any case, but I'm sure he will give my sister, Katie, a terrific spin.

"Likewise, I'm concerned about On His Own travelling left-handed, because I think his form is better going the other way, but am prepared to take a chance on that.

"You couldn't fail to be impressed by the manner in which On His Own won the Thyestes at Gowran Park in January and that race is sometimes a good test for Aintree.

"Neptune Collonges is probably well handicapped at this stage, but my worry is that he lacks the tactical speed required for such a test."
 
What horses have fallen in the GN and returned to win or place?

I think West Tip fell the year before he won it. Little Polveir (bless him) fell in 2 GNs before winning one. Red Marauder, Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter, Silver Birch. Maybe Ben Nevis (I backed it the year before it won). I could well be wrong on some of these and there may well be others, particularly earlier.
 
Had another brief look at the card tonight and I have to say I like the look of Junior for this right now. That may change but I think even if he's not my number one pick I will have money on him.
 
He jumps very low, almost hurdling his fences. I couldn't have him at all for that reason. I also don't think he's exactly lobbed in either.
 
Interesting lads, I know what you mean about his jumping but he has always found a way from one side to the other. I think he could still be pretty well in especially if improving for the step up in trip. He pissed all over a Festival handicap (bound to have been competitive) so 20lbs might not beyond him. I think his prep run was very promising too, giving away lumps to a horse that might well have been fitter (or not?!) and has subsequently won convincingly off of a higher mark. With Ballabrigs and Synchronised at the top of the weights I think Junior coming in on 11-2 could be decisive. I do, however, agree about his jumping so will probably be win only and probably play one or two of the other runners as well. Thursday/Friday will be a big day and decision day. I didn't, for example, pick Cinders and Ashes until the Monday afternoon!
 
Ron said:
What horses have fallen in the GN and returned to win or place?

I think West Tip fell the year before he won it. Little Polveir (bless him) fell in 2 GNs before winning one. Red Marauder, Amberleigh House, Hedgehunter, Silver Birch. Maybe Ben Nevis (I backed it the year before it won). I could well be wrong on some of these and there may well be others, particularly earlier.
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So West End Rocker will fight out the finish with Killyglen this year then? Hope so.
 
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