Looking at those still engaged, this year appears to be one of the classiest renewals to date. However, so far I seem to be drawn to the old brigade. Niche Market was the first that attracted me but he has retired. I have now been drawn to another oldie, 12yo Vic Ventura. He only ran once last year after the GN when he was 2nd to Follow the Plan with Nacarat over 30l behind. This year he has won twice from 3 starts. His last start he was eased when beaten and finished 42l adrift of Salsify. However he has been carrying 12stone or thereabouts and is in this year on 10stone. His previous two attempts at the GN were: 2010 with 11.6 With leaders when hampered 1st, prominent when hampered and unseated rider 20th 2011 with 11.6 Tracked leaders, brought down 2nd So 20lb less than previous 2 years. As we have no idea how he might have fared with more luck in running, has he got in rather lightly?
Ron, he certainly is well handicapped. I remember seeing him beating Black Apalachi comfortably before the latter ran so well against Don't Push It. Having had a quick peep at his form, he's now 12lbs better off with that horse- for beating him 8 lengths. Must have an outside chance but he needs to get into the race, needing 10 to come out. If you fancy him, he's 250/1 on Betfair just now- and 32 a place. I'll throw a few bob on him. It's worth noting that the favourite, Prince De Beauchene, also beat Black Apalachi 5 lenghths at levels and , strictly on the book, VV has a few pounds in hand of him. The trouble is, Ron, it looks a classy race this year and there are many with good chances.
Agreed Tam. It looks so classy that some are bound to drop out. Last time I spotted a blot on the handicap was Last Suspect. I wonder.
If stats are anything to go by then... In the last 10 runnings of the National 8 of the winners ran at least 15 times over fences beforehand, Were rated between 138-150, Aged between 9 and 10 years of age (I didn't actually research this, All courtesy of the Racing Post) Now I shortened the field down using the above and then shortened it down again to the horse's that went on all types of ground, Stayed well and had the highest ratings My 4 picks were West End Rocker Le Beau Bai Organised Confusion Chicago Grey I backed all of them antepost as its something I don't usually do with the National, On the day I tend just pick what I fancy as the National is a punters graveyard to pick a winner. Knowing My luck Ballabriggs will defy history
How many were left before you did your own pruning Istabraq and which ones went better on a soft/sound surface?
I also think West End Rocker has a good shot if, and I do mean if, Wayne Hutchinson keeps the ride. I hope he does. At the start of the season I was all over Calgary Bay but I think back-to-back chase wins have scuppered his chance. Just now I had a brief look at the card, only about 20 minutes or so, and I have to say I think Mon Mome seems to have slipped back to a nice mark. Off the top of my head I don't know what sort of record 12y-o have in this race but 3lbs lighter than when winning here 2 years ago could be significant.
Of all the declared entries the ones that fitted the bill according to the Racing Post's statistics were... Tatenen Chicago Grey Seabass West End Rocker Always Right Rare Bob Organised Confusion Le Beau Bai Postmaster Arbor Supreme Prince De Beauchene Roulez Cool Sunnyhillboy Stewarts House (Now a non runner I believe) Killyglen Tharawaat Fair Along BecauseICouldntsee The Package Giles Cross Sea Bass and Rare Bob have form on bottomless ground or with alot of juice in the ground, Seabass is an unknown stayer having only won over 2m6f in the past, Rare Bob stays 3 miles well but will need some decent cut. Giles Cross is another very ground dependant, Loves soft ground but stays very well. Chicago Grey as won over 4 miles on good ground, But he also goes on most types of ground from good to soft. West End Rocker the same he's won over 3m6f in the past on heavy ground aswell as over 3m2f and 3miles in the past on better ground. His last win in the Becher was on heavy ground but looks another who is adaptable.Always Right as won over 3m2f in the past and is very adaptable to ground having won on ground described as Good/Good to Firm/Soft. Le Beau Bai stays very well but may need abit of juice in the ground, He won the Welsh Grand National on ground described as heavy but always tends to go well on ground described as Good to Soft. Organised Confusion is another that stays very well, He's won the Irish Grand National over 3m5f on good ground around Fairyhouse but as also won in the past with a little cut in the ground. Prince De Beauchene goes on most types of ground, Stays 3 miles very well so the National distance is still an unknown really but I can see him going off as favourite under the Ruby Walsh factor... I narrowed it down to the following, Based purely on distance and ground needed. All see to stay 3miles+ well and went on most types of ground: Chicago Grey West End Rocker Always Right Le Beau Bai Organised Confusion Prince De Beauchene On official ratings Chicago Grey (150), West End Rocker (149), Always Right (146) Organised Confusion (145) Prince De Beauchene (143) Le Beau Bai (143) I then broke it down over to expierience over fences and wins, West End Rocker and Chicago Grey have both ran over fences 14 times with the 4 wins, Le Beau Bai 17 runs and 6 wins, Organised Confusion 12 runs 3 wins. Prince De Beauchene missed the cut narrowingly because of my doubts over the trip even though he stays 3 miles very well. But in My shortlist are two winners of previous Nationals (Welsh and Irish) and West End Rocker and Chicago Grey both fit the bill for the Grand National very well...
I've got the Grand National sorted. The first four home are: Cappa Bleu Prince De Beauchene Sunnyhillboy Becauseicouldntsee I will let you know the order nearer the time.
Very annoyed about this one. I nearly discounted him out of principle (completely missed the price) but decided I had to include him. I thought he was a huge eyecatcher when the weights came out and strongly considered having a bit of the 40/1 (have never backed antepost in the National before), and also thought about asking for a price for him to start favourite (wasn't quoted at the time). My thinking was that he'd win at Cheltenham, AP would ride in the National because they wouldn't run Synchronised, so he'd start nearly favourite. I was right on the first count but looks like I might be wrong on AP riding. Anyway, he's now a best priced 16/1 and 4/1 to start favourite.
Favourite Prince de Beauchene is out after a slight fracture. For me he was a deserving favourite, and this does shake things up a bit. I'm quite the fan of Sunnyhillboy, but think that West End Rocker, Chicago Grey and Planet of Sound could also be in the mix.
Neptune Collonges @ 28/1 with Bet 365 (NRNB) ew first 5. After a disastrous Cheltenham I vowed not to do the ante post wager thing again. However with Bet365 offering NRNB I've been tempted to have a dabble. Carries a lot of weight but only 1lb more than Don't Push It carried to glory in 2010. NC is a far superior animal IMHO and has put up some fine performances already this season carrying plenty of weight. The owner (according to local press) has always been keen to run him in the National and it would be great swansong to a very illustrious career played out largely in the shadow of his 2 superb stablemates. It would be very fitting following the retirement of Denman and the probable retirement of Kauto if this old warrior got his day in the sunshine at Aintree. There's always a story behind the national winner and victory for NC would provide plenty.
Worth pointing out that I cannot remember the Grand National being so late in April- as it falls this year. This must enhance the chances of those who ran at Cheltenham who have over four weeks to recover- including Gold Cup winner, Synchronised and Jonjo's other runner, Sunnyhill Boy.
Yep, you could have made a fortune over the last two seasons laying my ante post tips. At least I had the common sense not to actually back this one!
Thanks for this one gents - read this a while back and backed him at 32's for the place for small cash, just laid it at 24's, nice little bonus interest for me, hope you did the same.
Anyone with anymore hot picks for this, I have narrowed it down to 5 or 6 so far anyone with any views on the 6 would be truly grateful and if anyone has anything different! West End Rocker- Very Ground Dependant Tho! Ballabriggs Cappa Bleu Chicago Grey Synchronised Shakalakaboomboom (depends if Barry is on board) Treacle
