Election 2024

[brb]

Someone did a calculation the other day and came up with about a 10% chance of it happening.

That's the quickest summary I can give ye

Yes Lib Dems

I think the LOWEST number of seats the Tories are predicted to get is 78, the HIGHEST I think Lib Dems are predicted to get is 72.

 

[Archers Road]

I wonder what it would look like if the LibDems became the main opposition?

- How effective would Ed Davey be in arguing the toss across the dispatch box from Starmer in the HOC?

- How would the Libdems in parliament make the Labour government look? Would they make Labour appear more right of centre or left of centre?

And would that actually benefit lLabour with how they're viewed by the electorate?

I’d enjoy watching Ed Davey abseiling into the debating chamber for the opening of Parliament.

The LibDems aren’t remotely left wing on economic policy btw.

 

[Archers Road]

The Tories are like the undead. Drive a stake through their heart and someone will dig up the coffin and pull it out the next time there’s a full moon.

 

[Milk..]

I think the LOWEST number of seats the Tories are predicted to get is 78, the HIGHEST I think Lib Dems are predicted to get is 72.

Reuters article yesterday had a prediction of 64 for conservatives... that's the lowest I've seen.

 

[Treble]

I’d enjoy watching Ed Davey abseiling into the debating chamber for the opening of Parliament.

The LibDems aren’t remotely left wing on economic policy btw.

Not sure I agree with the last bit looking at this...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqeevzldj0jo

The way I see it, they'll keep Labour honest when it comes to social/left of centre policies.

And on the other hand appeal to right of centre voters if they're arguing against many of the things Libdems are proposing in that link.

I actually think it would benefit Labour to have them as the opposition.

 

[Milk..]

I don't know if the UK is like the US though.... Meaning, the further you are politically to the right, the more likely you are to vote. So, right-wing tends to do better than left-wing if the turnout is low.

If people are expecting a landslide, people might not bother voting and right could do better than expected...

 

[brb]

Reuters article yesterday had a prediction of 64 for conservatives... that's the lowest I've seen.

Don't know if you can get the UK's SKY News, but if you can, it's coming up to 6pm here, and will be in their next news hour.

 

[Milk..]

Don't know if you can get the UK's SKY News, but if you can, it's coming up to 6pm here, and will be in their next news hour.

I don't get TV at all...I'm 100% streaming. But if they post it to a website I can get it.

 

[brb]

Milk, here you go mate...

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[Archers Road]

I don't know if the UK is like the US though.... Meaning, the further you are politically to the right, the more likely you are to vote. So, right-wing tends to do better than left-wing if the turnout is low.

If people are expecting a landslide, people might not bother voting and right could do better than expected...

I think there’s a very real possibility of that. And the Labour leadership seems to think so too, that’s why they’re pushing hard for people to get and vote

 

[brb]

431 Labour
102 Tory but could be as low as 78 seats.
72 LD
18 SNP
3 Ref

I missed the Greens number.

 

[Archers Road]

Not sure I agree with the last bit looking at this...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqeevzldj0jo

The way I see it, they'll keep Labour honest when it comes to social/left of centre policies.

And on the other hand appeal to right of centre voters if they're arguing against many of the things Libdems are proposing in that link.

I actually think it would benefit Labour to have them as the opposition.

Some good stuff in there tbf. Would be interesting to have an opposition urging Labour to tax and spend more. Not convinced that’s how it will work out though.

Labour have been forced to be cagey about tax, because unlike the Lib Dems who can promise what they want, everything Labour say is subject to intense scrutiny; so look at what taxes they haven’t ruled out, if you want to know where the money will come from. They’re going to tax the rich, which is exactly what Gordon Brown did, but not so punitively that it’s counter productive. Rachel Reeves is business friendly, but successful businesses will be expected to contribute to the exchequer.

I don’t know many rich people, but I have one old mate who’s a self made entrepreneur; he’s expecting a capital gains tax hit from Rachel Reeves, but is still voting to get the Tories out (which actually means voting LibDem because of where he lives).

 

[Milk..]

In some ways the majority could feel like more than 212 seats. I think the Lib Dems are more aligned with Labour at the moment than they are the tories. (although that could change when they're sitting opposite them)- It could feel like they have 500 seats at times.

I suspect once Labour have been in power a while the Lib Dems will move to differentiate themselves further so as time goes their policies will drift further apart.

 

[Treble]

I don't know if the UK is like the US though.... Meaning, the further you are politically to the right, the more likely you are to vote. So, right-wing tends to do better than left-wing if the turnout is low.

If people are expecting a landslide, people might not bother voting and right could do better than expected...

I tend to agree but you look at all the by-elections the Tories have lost over the past 2 years the Tory votes had collapsed.

But then by-elections are not the GE.

 

[Peej]

431 Labour
102 Tory but could be as low as 78 seats.
72 LD
18 SNP
3 Ref

I missed the Greens number.

A surprisingly low number for Reform. They are selling themselves as the voice of the people. Farage will not be wanting to do the spade work for the people of Clacton or Tice in Skegness(in my opinion). Which wil be a tough one for the people in those areas

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

Some good stuff in there tbf. Would be interesting to have an opposition urging Labour to tax and spend more. Not convinced that’s how it will work out though.

Labour have been forced to be cagey about tax, because unlike the Lib Dems who can promise what they want, everything Labour say is subject to intense scrutiny; so look at what taxes they haven’t ruled out, if you want to know where the money will come from. They’re going to tax the rich, which is exactly what Gordon Brown did, but not so punitively that it’s counter productive. Rachel Reeves is business friendly, but successful businesses will be expected to contribute to the exchequer.

I don’t know many rich people, but I have one old mate who’s a self made entrepreneur; he’s expecting a capital gains tax hit from Rachel Reeves, but is still voting to get the Tories out (which actually means voting LibDem because of where he lives).

Rupert Lowe could be an MP in a couple of days. That’ll be nice.

 

[Milk..]

Not sure I agree with the last bit looking at this...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqeevzldj0jo

The way I see it, they'll keep Labour honest when it comes to social/left of centre policies.

And on the other hand appeal to right of centre voters if they're arguing against many of the things Libdems are proposing in that link.

I actually think it would benefit Labour to have them as the opposition.

The main thing in their manifesto that makes me boil. Giving the vote to 16 year olds. Has any Libdem met a 16 year old? There is no way the average 16 year old is mature or worldly enough to vote. The idea seems ridiculously absurd. (of course, I think Labour want that too- and makes sense that it is the left that wants to lower the age because younger people historically are more left-leaning.)

 

[brb]

A surprisingly low number for Reform. They are selling themselves as the voice of the people. Farage will not be wanting to do the spade work for the people of Clacton or Tice in Skegness(in my opinion). Which wil be a tough one for the people in those areas

From what I saw, Reform will have a higher percentage of votes than Lib Dems, but that don't equate into more seats for them. 15% Reforms was predicted to be now, I couldn't catch the % for Lib Dem in time, just too much shhite to take in.

 

[Treble]

Some good stuff in there tbf. Would be interesting to have an opposition urging Labour to tax and spend more. Not convinced that’s how it will work out though.

Labour have been forced to be cagey about tax, because unlike the Lib Dems who can promise what they want, everything Labour say is subject to intense scrutiny; so look at what taxes they haven’t ruled out, if you want to know where the money will come from. They’re going to tax the rich, which is exactly what Gordon Brown did, but not so punitively that it’s counter productive. Rachel Reeves is business friendly, but successful businesses will be expected to contribute to the exchequer.

I don’t know many rich people, but I have one old mate who’s a self made entrepreneur; he’s expecting a capital gains tax hit from Rachel Reeves, but is still voting to get the Tories out (which actually means voting LibDem because of where he lives).

Yeh there's definitely some really good proposals in there especially for children, and public services. They've also said outright they'd be looking to up CGT.

There have been a few very rich business owners saying they're happy to pay more tax if it means services improve. They are out there.

 

[Star of David Bardsley]

A surprisingly low number for Reform. They are selling themselves as the voice of the people. Farage will not be wanting to do the spade work for the people of Clacton or Tice in Skegness(in my opinion). Which wil be a tough one for the people in those areas

I think they’ll nick a few more in three-way races. Six or seven overall. Had a small punt on 20%+ vote share which I don’t expect to happen but the price was good and it has shortened since.