Early Commonwealth Cup Speculation

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Calyx is out again in the Sandy Lane Stakes on Saturday. I saw an article that seemed concerned about the fact that the Gosden colt only has 2 lbs in hand of Hello Youmzain on official ratings but bookmakers don't see it that way with Calyx 2/9 Fav and Hello Youmzain on 7/1.

Calyx needs to win and probably win well to warrant his odds for the Commonwealth Cup.

The Guineas form gets a spin at the Curragh this weekend in the Irish version, while Jash made a winning return at Newmarket recently. Jash only won by a neck in the 7F Listed race and it was from a Gosden inmate rated a stone lower than Jash on official ratings. There seemed little there to have Gosden cacking his pants about Jash on that showing.

Interesting to see where Ten Sovereigns goes next but Calyx sets a strong standard and hopefully he will enhance that come Saturday at Haydock.
 
Just three horses take on Calyx in the Sandy Lane.

Looking further ahead Calyx has opened as 11/4 Fav for the July Cup. That will do for me.

Last year's Commonwealth Cup winner Eqtidaar went on to the July Cup and I feel Calyx is a much better prospect than the Stoute sprinter. Invincible Army was impressive last time but Calyx could be a bit special and 11/4 is at least a decent price. He is 2/9 for Saturday and could go off odds-on in the Commonwealth Cup if looking impressive on Saturday.

I can't see him going off bigger than 11/4 unless he flops beforehand, in which case it won't matter anyway, as the bet will be Donald Ducked.

July Cup Calyx 11/4
 
Well as expected, the fragile Calyx ran his Guineas race in a nothing commonwealth trial, Gosden gets his just desserts.
 
Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
Well as expected, the fragile Calyx ran his Guineas race in a nothing commonwealth trial, Gosden gets his just desserts.
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Would not have had a prayer in the Guineas with that effort today. He looked Donald Ducked after five furlongs, never mind a mile. He may have bounced or maybe he just flattered to deceive in a bad race last time.

He was pushed out to 6/1 for the Commonwealth Cup but it might as well have been 66/1. I get the feeling he will not be seen for a long while if at all.

I still have Ten Sovereigns at 16/1 but I think he's crap value at 5/2 now after the 2000 Guineas form took a turn for the ****ty today in Ireland.

I reckon today's winner Hello Youmzain is better value at 10/1 and he's been overshadowed by Calyx's flop.

2/13 today was crazy short, people betting at those odds are the dumbest dipshits who come late to the party and end up soiling their trousers before they can get their peckers out of their trousers to show everyone their enormous betting manhood.
 
Probably end up about 30 runners, everyone will fancy a crack.

Khaadem 16/1 looks a decent price.
 
I’d say Calyx looked to have a scratchy action yesterday. He may have something wrong or he may just have an aversion to fast ground due to the way he’s built. I’ve never heard exactly what the problem was last year.
 
No such thing as fast ground at Haydock, was firmer ground when he won the Coventry. That wasn't the same horse who you saw at Ascot, that much is obvious, he has an explosive turn of foot and runs dead straight but when asked to go yesterday he started hanging, just a fragile horse who will always have issues I'd say, missed their chance to run in the guineas when he was in good shape.
 
I think Siyarafina looks more like a miler than a typical French Oaks filly, backing her for the Coronation at 16/1 on the off chance she gets beaten at 10f today as that would become the obvious target and trainer has run a few decent fillies in it.
 
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Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
No such thing as fast ground at Haydock, was firmer ground when he won the Coventry. That wasn't the same horse who you saw at Ascot, that much is obvious, he has an explosive turn of foot and runs dead straight but when asked to go yesterday he started hanging, just a fragile horse who will always have issues I'd say, missed their chance to run in the guineas when he was in good shape.
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And he didn't run after the Coventry. May not have the constitution to be a top-class horse.
 
Think he might be one of those horses who is hard on themselves and give you everything, he took 6L out of his side in the Coventry in a flash, that mentality combined with physical fragility will likely limit his career. Thats what sets Frankel apart, he had the brilliance, the desire to show it and the constitution to do it time after time for multiple seasons. That was a point that Steve Mellish made when they had the GOAT discussion with Brough Scott on RUK, compared to the greats of the past, none of them were so consistently extraordinary.
 
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"I was getting a bad feeling at the two pole he wasn't really going to pick up," Havlin told ITV Racing. "I gave him a couple of squeezes in the ribs and there was nothing there and when I asked him to quicken he almost ran like a horse having his first run, he was sticking his head up.

"One thing I can say is he wasn't giving a hard blow afterwards. I rode him at home about ten days ago and he absolutely flew. No horse has given me that feel since Kingman and I fully expected to come here and win by ten lengths but we'll get him back and have a look at him. Hopefully there's something we can iron out."

Sounds like he done plenty in a gallop and was feeling something here. Gosden will be tested to resurrect his season.
 
Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
I think Siyarafina looks more like a miler than a typical French Oaks filly, backing her for the Coronation at 16/1 on the off chance she gets beaten at 10f today as that would become the obvious target and trainer has run a few decent fillies in it.
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I did Platane today. She looks more certain to like the trip today and with Siyarafina missing the Guineas through a poor gallop you have to wonder if she warrants being odds-on today. Platane beat Etoile last time and that filly won easily since. 5/1 Each-Way Platane was a no brainer call for me as better value today.

I'm not keen on De Royer-Dupre for UK races as he seems a home bird but it would not be a shock if Siyarafina is a miler. I have done her ante-post for the Prix Diane and we will find out today if that is on the cards or not.
 
Just had a look at his stats last 11 years.

60 runners
7 wins
19 2nds

43% top 2, not bad considerings its mainly G1 and G2 races.

I was actually getting mixed up thinking of Rougets Coronation winner for the Aga Khan. De Royer Dupre only had 3 runners in Coronation, Reggane ran 2nd at 9/1 and the other 2 were tailed off at 12/1 and 14/1. Suspect Siyarafina would be his most fancied by some way if she was to turn up. Probably unlikely though as her competition today looks short of G1 standard and its a shallow race so she will likely get away with the trip, the Diane will be a different ball game tho.

Founts dam Ventura was a brilliant 7f filly in the US, backed her when she won the Filly and Mares Sprint at the Breeders Cup, Frankel is even producing middle distance horses out of fast mares.
 
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I didn't clarify De Royer-Dupre properly. I meant to point out how poor his stats for Ascot are.

The All Time figures for Ascot show that Alain De Royer-Dupre is 1/37 at Ascot. That's a very worrying 2.7% strike rate and something that concerns me.

His stable is on fire at the moment though. 7/16 and a 43.75% strike rate is pretty eye-watering.
 
Moving the goalposts again.

27 at Ascot last 11 years
1 winner
8 2nds

Probably better record than vast majority of UK trainers, 5 of his 2nds beaten less than 3/4L.
 
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Gosden 17%
Appleby 16%
O'Brien 15%
Stoute 15%

Of those, only Stoute is showing a level stakes profit over 5 years.
2% is a good excuse to overlook in my book.
 
Lets keep the criteria the same and look at the figures, last 11 years Royal Ascot.

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Very small sample size and if 1 or 2 necks went the other way his win% would be massively affected. Looking at the data I would argue not only is de Royre Dupre not notably poor at Britains premier meeting, I would say he has done exceptionally well with his limited runners and there wouldnt be a home based trainer with anywhere near 40% top 2 finishes at Royal Ascot. We are also arguably talking about the best 3yo filly in France this season and its hypothetical as she won as expected yesterday and will run in the French Oaks, but the numbers suggests she would be nailed on to run huge if she came over, certainly absolutely no evidence to put you off based on the trainers record.
 
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That might help explain his flat run last time out. Maybe he's a fragile horse.

That leaves Ten Sovereigns red hot at the front of the betting but despite him being my first pick for this race right after his debut, I wouldn't be too confident at shortish odds. His Guineas run was a bit between the two 1 mile, 6 furlong stools for me.

Lady Kaya ran a corker for a filly who did not stay in the Newmarket Guineas. Only a length off Hermosa, who went on to do the business at the Curragh. She must be a player if effective at 6F and Hello Youmzain looked decent, even if Calyx had a problem in the Sandy Lane.

I wouldn't play Ten Sovereigns at 7/4 now but I have a small bet at 16/1 and if he runs it will be an interest for an inexpensive outlay.
 
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