Early Commonwealth Cup Speculation

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Grendel

Well-Known Member
Oct 1, 2018
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It's a very long way off yet but I have been thinking for a couple of months about the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot. I had a very early bet on Sands Of Mali for last year's renewal and then saw him run a stinker on his very next start. A failure to stay in the Breeders Cup Juvenile mile followed and he looked a lost cause but it ended up that he finished 2nd on the day at the Royal Meeting.

This year I have had a very early bet on Ten Sovereigns at 16/1 because I was unsure about him staying a mile in the Guineas but he's short enough now and I get the feeling that the Ballydoyle mob will try the Guineas as a starting point and that may not be ideal.

For a while now I have felt that John Gosden's Calyx might just be the value for the Sprinting contest. I was impressed enough by him to have a bet for the Guineas after his debut win and that looked good after he won the Coventry from the "Wrong" side of the track.

Injured after that and out for the season, Calyx had been on target for the Prix Morny and that has been a future sprinters race for a while now. Calyx had looked as classy as anything last season and with stablemate Too Darn Hot now a warm order for the 2000 Guineas, I am wondering if it makes more sense to wait with Calyx and take a route to the Commonwealth Cup via one of the Sprinting races later in May?

The talk so far this year has all been about Too Darn Hot and how he will take in the Greenham on the way to a tilt at the Guineas. If Too Darn Hot is the stable's Guineas colt then surely it makes sense to take Calyx on a path that avoids the apparent main hope?

For me, Calyx is potentially a class above most of the other candidates in the Commonwealth Cup. I was going to back him at 20/1 but wanted to wait to see if there were any signs that he was over the injury that meant his season ended early last year. Money has meant that 16/1 is now the best price and I felt that had to be taken as potentially looking big as soon as we see him again. Any talk of this race being his target will surely also see his odds nibbled in.

In good hands and unexposed, Calyx could be a group 1 sprinter.

Commonwealth Cup Calyx 16/1
 
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Looking ahead to Royal Ascot I decided to have a look at the Diamond Jubilee.

Ante-Post favourite Blue Point may be more suited to the Kings Stand and the Sprinting Division is devoid of real talent and packed with older, exposed speedsters.

Sands Of Mali lies second best in the market for the Jubilee at 10/1 and he recorded a personal best in landing the Champion Sprint at Ascot late last season. Sands Of Mali had started last season well but had seemed to lose his way after a good second place in the Commonwealth Cup. He was an outsider on Champions Day but clearly his good efforts at Ascot are an asset.

D'Bai has never quite convinced me while The Tin Man and Brando are getting long in the tooth now. John Gosden's Dreamfield was a huge gamble into 2/1 in the Wokingham but he was touched off by outsider Bacchus on the day. Stepping up into better company didn't pay off for Dreamfield and at 5YO he needs a fair bit of improvement to be Group 1 class this season.

Zousain brings Aussie form to the table but he is only quoted by one firm and makes no appeal to me at 20/1 after recently being beaten as 2/5 Fav. He was a busy 2YO running nine times and surely the Commonwealth Cup will be more feasible for him if coming to Royal Ascot.

The horse who interests me is Michael Stoute's Eqtidaar. He was something of a surprise winner of the Commonwealth Cup last year but connections felt the horse had just started coming to himself and they were reasonably confident of a good showing from the Invincible Spirit Colt in the July Cup next time. It didn't pan out for Eqtidaar behind winner US Navy Flag but he wasn't disgraced. I was surprised they ran him in the Haydock Sprint Cup on Heavy ground but they got the message in no uncertain terms that he doesn't handle mud.

In the hands of a trainer famous for patience and developing horses at 4YO and older, Eqtidaar remains unexposed in a division short on depth.

I reckon a win in one of the races for Sprinters in May would see Eqtidaar slashed in from the 25/1 odds he currently stands at. If there is to be a new kid on the block this season I feel it may well be Eqtidaar.

Diamond Jubilee Eqtidaar 25/1 is the interesting horse for me.
 
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Gosden has confirmed that Calyx may well go down the sprinting route. He stated that the colt has done well over the winter and that he will be entered in the Commonwealth Cup.

The trainer described the son of Kingman as a "Big, powerful, fast horse" and added that he "Hits the gate and travels strongly"

16/1 is still available but I suspect those odds to contract as we approach the trials for the Guineas and the stable firm up their contenders' targets.

If there is a horse in the bigger price range who may end up as a clear favouite for the Royal Ascot 3YO sprint race I suspect it is Calyx. I'll be in Laddies shortly to top up my bet, as I feel the risk/reward ratio appeals.
 
I also backed Calyx for the 2000 Guineas after his debut win. I was a bit surprised he went to the Coventry just 10 days later because they initially said they would take their time with him. Perhaps in retrospect they should have waited with him.

My Guineas hope sort of sank when they announced that the Prix Morny was his next race because the French contest is littered with pure sprinters and it's a generation ago that Zafonic won the 2000 Guineas after landing the Morny the previous season. Even then Zafonic only ever won the one time at a mile and never raced again after being beaten at odds-on over the trip on his only subsequent start. The connections had warned that day that the rain softened ground would not suit Zafonic but he still went off odds-on. I backed Inchinor that day but the French horse Bigstone won it with Zafonic struggling from some way out and breaking a blood vessel in his effort.

Calyx will hopefully go the Commonwealth Cup route because I feel Gosden is "All in" with Too Darn Hot for the Guineas and I don't see Calyx challenging him on that basis. Too Darn Hot is only a 6/1 saver for me on the Guineas after having backed Quorto at 14/1 when Calyx got injured and adding Persian King at 25/1 as my bigger priced option.

Ladbrokes must have buckled under my additional tenner at 16/1, because they cut Calyx to 12/1 afterwards LOL

Only Paddy Power go 16/1 now, Hills have cut him to 10/1.
 
Quorto misses the Guineas. Skipped the end of season races and took him out to Dubai where he has picked up an injury, its a wonder theyve only won the 2000 Guineas once in the last 20 years, and that was with Bolger handling the preparation in Ireland.

All those top 2yo colts were never going to make the Guineas, it very rarely happens.

It looks likely that Too Darn Hot will start odds on at this stage. Ten Sovereigns was Obriens best 2yo and he looks all over a sprinter. In terms of natural ability, the only horse who displayed the class to trouble Too Darn Hot was his stablemate Calyx, who looked more like a top miler than Too Darn Hot ever has.

He should stay a mile no problem on pedigree, he has that top class 6f speed and has inherited his sires acceleration, he has everything you want in a top miler if he stays and I think he will, maybe not well enough for the Guineas early season against a champion though. Too Darn Hot was off his feet in the Dewhurst but was clearly a champion 2yo and the stiff mile at Newmarket will be well within his distance range early season, he looks a 8-10f+ type while Calyx looks a 6-8f type.

Too Darn Hot a worthy favourite but you wont get rich backing him and Calyx is potentially a very good value alternative at 10/1.

Persian King, Madhmoon and Magna Grecia are others with potential without having shown quite the same early brilliance as the top 2.
 
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Calyx was my first ante-post on the 2000 Guineas right after his debut run. He was 25/1 then but after he was injured I had a cover bet on Quorto at 14/1. That's down the pan now and I reckon my 25/1 Quorto for the Derby is dead in the water as well. There was some doubt from Charlie Appleby if the horse would go beyond a mile anyway.

I actually had a fiver on Too Darn Hot for the Derby just before his debut. Having looked at the field for his first race it seemed likely he would win it and be guaranteed to contract for the Derby. Bookies were offering 50/1 and that looked a decent investment given his breeding, trainer and that he'd just won at a mile. The joy was pretty short lived when I saw that he was dropping to 7F for his next start and he took a pure miler's path thereafter.

I don't think Too Darn Hot will run in the Derby and he's horrible value at as low as 5/2 but I see him negative of late, out to 5/1 in a place. He just doesn't look a Derby sort to me and Gosden isn't one to run them if he feels the won't stay.

Too Darn Hot's races are not actually throwing up much in the way of future winners and I reckon Advertise and Phoenix Of Spain are the best two he has beaten along the way. Opposition is thin on the ground for the Guineas though and he probably has few to fear greatly. Persian King is a horse I took to on debut as I felt he looked the part and was only beaten on the day by a horse with a bit more natural pace. The Racing Post kept giving him low ratings as he started winning, so low that they had to keep going back and upgrading their rating to make it less embarrassing. He has a bit to go yet but he has scope wheras Too Darn Hot has little room left from his lofty 126 mark.

Someone once told me that a top juvenile needs to improve by between 5 and 7 pounds at three in order to win a Guineas. Air Force Blue was rated 122 at 2YO and failed to make the required progress, probably actually regressing, so it's not guaranteed for Too Darn Hot and the trainer has yet to land the Guineas. Charlie Appleby said that he has trained more Dubawi offspring than anyone else and mentioned that "You sometimes lose Dubawi's in the Spring and they then come back strong again in the summer", we saw Masar come good at Epsom last season, so that might be something to think about with Dubawi being Too Darn Hot's sire.

Regarding Calyx it's a bit hard to call for the Guineas. It looked like speed that took him clear of his field in the Coventry, winning by a long way on his side of the track. I was concerned when Gosden nominated the Prix Morny as the next target for Calyx in what was billed as a clash with Pretty Pollyanna. With Calyx sidelined Pretty Pollyanna had to work hard to win the Morny and it's a race that has worked out terribly since, she was beaten next time out and then bizzarely was stepped up to a mile in what I thought was a very poor Fillies Mile. I think Gosden will wait with Calyx rather than rush him to a trial for the Guineas. With Too Darn Hot headed for the Greenham it would leave the other traditional trial over the mile in the Craven as an option or perhaps one of the lesser races as a possibility. He could go to the Guineas without a prep race but that would be a big ask.

The Commonwealth Cup looks a bit short of classy contenders and Calyx is definitely one with potential. Sergei Prokofiev is shorter in the betting but much more exposed and he could not beat Calyx despite being much better drawn in the Coventry. Jash could be a decent sprinter this year, having run well behind Ten Sovereigns in the Middle Park, he is in the Guineas but I don't feel he is a miler in the making on breeding and visual evidence thus far. Ten Sovereigns himself has to be respected but at the odds he is now and the Guineas a possibilty I feel he's a risky proposition at the odds. Having played him as my first bet after a debut where he looked a sprinter at odds of 16/1, for me it's sensible to have Calyx as the other ante-post bet. If they both go to the Guineas I might be in trouble but hopefully one of them ends up in the Commonwealth Cup.
 
Persian King went for a big walk out to 48 on Betfair, safe to assume he wont be running in the Guineas. Calyx also been weak are currently 17.5.

Obrien has stated that Ten Sovereigns is going for the Guineas and hes now clear second fav, the dam did win over 1m2 despite being by Exceed and Excel so its a no brainer to go for it and drop back for the Commonwealth if he doesnt stay.
 
I am not keen on horses trying the Guineas and then going sprinting. If you are going to last a mile at Newmarket you need to settle well (Unless you are Frankel) and then reverting to sprinting you have to ask for more or less full tilt from the stalls.

Ten Sovereigns is one I am wary of. His first two races were no great shakes and I am worried the Middle Park might not be strong form. With a view to the Guineas, O'Brien states that he feels Ten Sovereigns should have no problem getting a mile. It's in Coolmore's interest to make it sound like the Guineas was always the plan and the stallion fees can soar if a Colt wins the race. History says that Middle Park winners do not win the Guineas very often though. Rodrigo De Triano was the last to do so and you need to go back to Known Fact before that, and I seem to recall that he only won that Guineas because Nureyev was disqualified.

Another factor is that outside of Ten Sovereigns O'Brien does not have a strong contender for the 2000 Guineas. Magna Grecia won a weak looking Racing Post Trophy but had earlier been beaten by Persian King, who won a bit more cosily than the winning margin suggested in the Autumn Stakes. Anthony Van Dyck was talked of as Aidan's best at times last year but he has tons to catch up with Too Darn Hot on form and is more exposed. I don't like horses who went to the Breeders Cup as 2YO's either.

At the odds Ten Sovereigns makes no appeal for either race, there's a possibility that he may find Too Darn Hot an immovable object in the Guineas and Calyx the irresistible force in the Commonwealth Cup in what should be another good season for Gosden.
 
Calyx starts in the Pavilion over 6F. They will then go to either the St James Palace or the Commonwealth Cup. The Guineas was deemed to be an unfair starting place on seasonal debut.

Best price for the Commonwealth Cup is now 8/1. Gosden says the colt is in good shape and ready to race soon.

Sergei Prokofiev is as low as 5/1 but he's looking a bit exposed now and I felt his comeback win was in a poor quality Listed contest.

I think a win in the Pavilion sees Calyx near favourite for the Commonwealth Cup.
 
Think they might regret missing the Guineas with Calyx, looks to me like they took their time with him because they thought they had TDH for the Guineas.

Hes bred to be a miler and Gosden said after his debut he was worried about 6f catching him out and he would definitely be running 7f later in the season. Absurd really for a horse like this not to run in the Guineas if fit.
 
If you believe Oddschecker Calyx WILL run in the Guineas. He's blue across the boards and as low as 6/1.

Won't be the first time Gosden has said something and totally flip-flopped.

Looking at that Guineas it looks an awful renewal.

Horses like Magna Grecia, Skardu, Royal Marine look awful value and Ten Sovereigns has stamina to prove. Persian King isn't coming over and very little else looks capable. Calyx has a major shout if he runs.

Calyx was my first ante-post bet for the Guineas at 25/1, so he's one of my best returns on the race. Too Darn Hot was only a saver. I would have liked Persian King to run because I also have him at 25/1 but if he's not coming then that's that. I felt Mohaather was criminally underrated after winning the Greenham in good style and had a fiver each-way at 25/1. People have cottoned on to the fact that he's got a live chance and it is hard to fathom that the unimpressive Skardu was declared as the second coming after winning the Craven and cut right in. I think Mohaather will see him off readily.

If Calyx does go the mile route I am underwhelmed with the rest of the Commonwealth Cup field.
 
Yeah a good rule of thumb with gosden is to expect the opposite of what he says, its always a last minute saga with his horses every season. The strange thing is that he has so many fooled by his concern for the punter pr lines, his actions show he has no regard for punters and actually suggest he is deliberately putting them away time and again.

I've always thought calyx was a miler, I think of the likes of bated breath and dream ahead and he is not the same as them.

If he runs, he would be the only potential top miler in the race imo, nothing else has that class speed and acceleration. Always a doubt with these types staying the testing mile of the guineas but some do and I was just watching the Zafonic video today and everyone was talking about him pulling and having to prove he stays, he just outclassed them.
 
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Grimthorpe now saying the Guineas was always the plan. Seems Gosdens Pavillion talk was complete fabrication, It did seem very strange to me that a horse of this level would be going for a non event Group 3 sprint rather than the Guineas if even close to fit.

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abdullah, said: “There’s been no change one way or the other – we’ve always been trying to get him there and whoever else runs or doesn’t won’t affect the decision.

“Obviously the concern is that he’s had a long lay-off and an injury. He hasn’t run since Royal Ascot, so we want to be happy that he is in great shape to do himself justice in the 2000 Guineas.

“From that point of view, there has never been any change. The horse himself is in good form and we’ll probably have to make a decision by the end of this week I would think.

“It’s never been a question of who goes or who doesn’t, we’ve always had tremendous faith in the horse, so it’s all about getting him to the race in the best possible form."
 
Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
Think they might regret missing the Guineas with Calyx, looks to me like they took their time with him because they thought they had TDH for the Guineas.

Hes bred to be a miler and Gosden said after his debut he was worried about 6f catching him out and he would definitely be running 7f later in the season. Absurd really for a horse like this not to run in the Guineas if fit.
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Accept that Calyx on paper looks as if he should get a mile but there are some twists and turns with this family. Calyx's dam is a full-sister to African Rose and she was a classy fast filly. When bred to Frankel ( arguably a source of more stamina than Kingman) African Rose produced the useful fast filly Fair Eva. I'd have been surprised if Fair Eva would have got a mile.
Calyx was a very fast 2yo based on the skimpy evidence of 2 runs. His dam got a lot further than her sister African Rose so you might reasonably think Calyx would stay further than Fair Eva. But if breeding and families are meant to mean anything then it's not only horse A (the dam) but her antecedents B, C D etc. that are as important and Calyx has the same B, C and D as Fair Eva.
Therefore I'm not certain Calyx is a surefire miler. He may be but it's not certain, and if you add the fact he's not run for more than 10 months, then I think you need a healthy dose of optimism to consider that he'll win on May 4th. He'll probably skate up..
 
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Bustino74 said:
I see Calyx is entered for Wednesday’s Commowealth Cup Ascot trial: a mixed message?
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Calyx worked the other day and the media headline seemed to suggested he had been impressive but reading what was actually said it seemed more a case of satisfactory, rather than spectacular.

They seem to be leaving it as late as possible before committing the colt to one race or the other and I don't like the uncertainty

If the horse was trained all along for the Guineas as they say, then why the alternative plan?

I don't believe a word Teddy Grimthorpe says and it seems a classic case of potentially falling between two stools.
 
Calyx is OUT of the Guineas.

Gosden simply reiterated what he had said previously, in that the race was too soon and too big an ask. Teddy Grimthorpe was basically talking out of his fart pipe in contradicting what the trainer had already said, with all the bluster about the Guineas being the target all along.
 
Calyx is a best price of 7/4 for the Commonwealth Cup now. He hosed up today and Frankie thinks he should stay Sprinting. The big sticking point might by Teddy Grimthorpe and his notion of mile races. Here's a clue Mr Grimthorpe, let the trainer and jockey do they do best.

Happy to have Calyx and Ten Sovereigns here at 16/1 apiece.
 
What a ridiculous decision, horse like that running in a complete non event days before the Guineas.
 
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